Lots of content this week and more than an hour of good racing talk, hopefully sensible comment (you decide!), and we’ve 10 races assessed (some great, some pants!…you decide!!), and we will hopefully produce a profit for you again this weekend.
The text of my side of this weeks Podcast chatter below, with Sean’s selections added.
If trends hold up, this will be won by a horse aged three, or four. Nine of the last 10 running’s have been and the only horse to break the sequence was Roger Varian’s 5-y-o REALTRA, in 2017.
Weight ranges offer no clues as everything carried over 9st so I’m looking at how well the market got on in locating previous winners.
The biggest priced winner of this in the last 10 years was LADY WINGSHOT @ 10/1, in 2012 and eight of the last 10 winners were no bigger than 9/2 so, I want a three or four year old, trading shorter that 5/1.
I have a tissue of sorts and only one horse fits – AGARTHA.
She is one of four Joseph O’Brien runs in this, which accounts for more than a third of the entire field, something I hate because who knows what they actually want to happen?
She is back in her right league, having been running in Group 1 races the last twice. She finished fifth in the Irish 1000Gns and then they sent her to Belmont Park for their Oaks, at the beginning of July, and she finished 10th of the 10 runners.
This is nothing like as big a pond as that and her form figures to date have her pegged as ultra-consistent. Twelve runs, won or placed in nine of them.
She’s my selection here.
RON – AGARTHA
SEAN – AGARTHA
Dandy Nicholls won this with INEXILE back in 2012 and the Brits won three of these between 2012 and 2016. That last winner coincided with a spate of big priced winners 12/1, 14/1, 9/1, 8/1 and 14/1….we had a 4/9 shot go in, in 2020 but this has become tough to solve.
I’m getting no help from age grouping….three winners aged three, four winners aged five, a seven year old and a pair aged eight. Weight ranges are all over the place, too so trends wise I’m stuck.
Purely for Podcast purposes, I’m going to suggest a 20/80 TEES SPIRIT. He is trained by Dandy’s son, Adrian and this 4-y-o gelding could not have won his last race any easier, destroying a decent Class 3 handicap under 10st, pulling a caravan.
I’ve never thought that, at sprint trips, there is much between good handicappers and Listed Class and his 10 draw is not a bad box to break from either. Five of the last eight winners won from stall eight of higher so yep, a little 20/80 TEES SPIRIT.
RON – TEES SPIRIT – 20/80
SEAN – ANO SYRA
I don’t spend much time on juvenile races for the reasons stated in many a previous Podcast and we saw only very recently the best horse in such a race going into it, based on Royal Ascot form, had regressed so much it finished up one of the worst on that day.
I was interested in a comment made by Sir Mark Prescott after HOORAY won the Cheveley Park in 2010 and he was asked about races next season, such as the 100Gns. He said straight, “no chance, this family doesn’t train on”.
True enough, next season, 8th of 18 in the 1000Gns, won a little Listed race at Epsom, then ran seventh in the Golden Jubilee.
Ran three more times after that, did nothing, packed off to stud.
So, all juveniles, all carry 9st 2lb, and the only clues I now look for are market position but, as we’ve seen many times, they are only in the position they hold because of the early juvenile form produced, or which stables they run for.
We had a 7/1 winner last year but prior to that, nine winners returned 5/1 or shorter, and seven of those 10 winners were front two on the tissue….and seven of the 10 winners won this, having won last time out.
I have three contenders and only one of them won last time out so, my selection is BRIGHT DIAMOND….but part with money? Not in a month of Sundays.
RON – BRIGHT DIAMOND – 20/80
SEAN – BRIGHT DIAMOND
RON – TIS MARVELLOUS
SEAN – TIS MARVELLOUS
Only four going to post, two of those priced 28/1 and 250/1 and a favourite in HOO YA MAL, 8/13, that has won only one race previously, and been sold to race down under for £1.2m ….someone down there has more money than sense.
The second favourite won a Class 2 Handicap last time out and if he turns the favourite over they’ll be asking for their money back.
RON – HOO YA MAL
SEAN – HOO YA MAL
A proper race.
Currently 11 going to post and from an age group perspective, we definitely want to be with horses aged 5+ as seven of the last 10 winners….and three of the last four, were.
Eight of the last 10 winners carried between 9st and 9st 6lb and the market position of those previous winners says that if you sit outside the front five on the tissue, forget it.
I have two qualifiers based on those trends and one of them is last years winner SUMMERGHAND, who should have won the Stewards Cup but was drawn wrong side, but made up for that from a perfect draw last weekend….and we made a few quid off it.
He is now an eight year old and in the last 10 years, nothing older than seven has pulled this off so my pick has to be GREAT AMBASSADOR, who ran sixth in the Stewards Cup where his middle draw was a hinderance. He was bumped when about to make his challenge that day and did very well to be beaten less than three lengths.
I’ll put up Ed Walker’s horse, 20/80
RON – GREAT AMBASSADOR – 20/80
SEAN – DANEH
Another small field Group race with an out and out handicapper trading 11/2 to win it. £71k to the winner….makes me want to weep.
The last four winners have been aged 3, 4, 5, 6….and before that, 6, 5, 3….a 20/1 winner last time, a 20/1 winner in 2012 but in between times five winning favourites and no winner bigger than 9/2.
The Handicapper I mention has won just one race since 2019 and after 61 career starts is, to say the least, ruthlessly exposed.
By contrast, the second favourite, JADOOMI, has seen turf just six times, won twice, place four times. He is trained by the same connections as won this in 2020 and if I were not doing this Podcast thingy, I’d not have given this thing a second look.
JADOOMI for Podcast purposes only.
RON – JADOOMI
SEAN – JADOOMI
One of the problems I have with Irish races 48 hours ahead of time, is tissue prices.
We definitely want a 3-y-o onside here because they’ve won the last three, and nine of the last 10.
Aiden O’Brien has won this five times, but not since 2019. He saddles LULLABY, who looks to be one of those not trained on from her 2-y-o days….not that she was much cop as a juvenile!
We had a 16/1 winner last season but prior to that nothing bigger than 4/1 so I’m going to plump for a 3-y-o, trading 4/1 or shorter….but with no tissue, I cannot give you a name!
RON – SEISAI
SEAN – SEISAI
Again, no tissue so it’s very much as that Curragh race.
I’ve no preferred age grouping, as the last 10 running’s have gone to horses aged three (4), four (3), five (1) and six (2) but I do not want a horse carrying less than 9st onside.
I do want a horse trading front three on the tissue though and so the winner of this, if the runes speak true, will be carrying 9st or more, and trading front three. If I had to pick a preferred age group I’d say three, as four wins in 10 years, with a pair in the last three years, suggests a strong trend may be emerging.
However, the 3-y-o’s carry less than 9st so right now I’m sitting in a canoe, no paddle, stream leading me to the rapids!
The only previous winner in here, at the distance, is the 2018 winner DESERT ENCOUNTER, but he is 0-7 ground, currently described as soft….which I should point out, none of the eight runners has won on.
Even for Podcast purposes I’m struggling to find a play here so I’ll abstain.
RON – NO SELECTION
SEAN – MAKSUD
After the big build up last time, how disappointing was GROCER JACK? Not sure he’ll like the soft ground on Saturday, either….mind you, could be 200 degrees down there and dry it to a crisp!
Horses aged 5+ dominate this race, too but I wouldn’t want anything older than six. The only horse older than six to take this was the horse that won the race above in 2018….he also won this in 2019. DESERT ENCOUNTER clearly likes this gaff
It’s another race I need a tissue for but have nowt….but we again want to be front three….and with seven of the last nine winners also carrying 9st or more, I’m looking for a five or six year old, trading front three on the tissue, and carrying the required weight.
That makes it one of GROCER JACK or MAJESTIC DAWN and as I doubt GROCER JACK wants it soft, and with MAJESTIC DAWN 1-3 on it, and also 3-11 trip, I’ll pop that up as my Podcast pick….but only if he’s front three on that tissue.
RON – MAJESTIC DAWN
SEAN – GROCER JACK
CHALDEAN – 7/1 > 5/1 – WON 7/2
DEAUVILLE LEGEND – 5/1 > 7/2 – WON 5/2
STREETS OF GOLD – 10/1 > 9/2 – WON 7/2F
Something for the weekend
RON – GREAT AMBASSADOR – 20/80
SEAN – SEISAI