When I first started doing what I do the two things I had at the top of my list of criteria for producing Ratings for the flat, were going and draw (I have a total of 11 criteria for flat racing, eight for NH).
To ascertain how good, or otherwise, a draw position is for an individual horse, is paramount in finding the winners and even when you’ve done that, you know that a good draw has sometimes be wasted on a horse because of its running style.
Most recently the small fields have negated the need for me to try and work out the draw but in the last week (since York on Friday 19th – Saturday 28th), I have had the absolute pleasure of working on 26 races, of which 16 provided me with a draw bias to conjure with.
One race at Catterick was abandoned, so 15 were run.
No fewer than 13 of those 15 winners of those races had the § icon, which indicated they were best drawn, my having assessed their stall/running styles.
The prices of those 13 winners were: 20/1, 20/1, 16/1, 12/1, 15/2, 15/2, 15/2, 6/1, 11/2, 9/2, 4/1 and 7/4
Another was second @ 5/1, beaten 3/4 of a length.
I mentioned recently that the last few days have taken me back to the “good old days”, when I was working on races like these every single day of the week, and in 2013 simply playing the top rated horse during that summer, produced a level stake profit of close to 400 points.
We will never see such days again because of how racing is today, with small fields negating things like draw bias.
A couple of days ago I said I’d have something place for the 2023 flat season that will make us a profit. It will. The number of selections will be few and far between for the reasons already mentioned and they will meet additional criteria I have set….which I know from a trial at this end is producing silly numbers by way of profit.
In that same time period mentioned above I have had two qualifiers, one of which won at a lovely double figure price and a 19 point profit in that week, from two plays.