Farewell to the Queen, the Ayr Gold Cup winner named and much more!

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Farewell to the Queen, the Ayr Gold Cup winner named and much more!

The text of my side of today’s conversation below with Sean’s selections added plus, the best of this weeks OMMS and our SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND!

1.40pm Newbury

Six of the last 10 runners were aged five or older, with five year olds winning three of the last five…and the last two.

Market positions tell a tale, too. We had a 12/1 winner last season but generally speaking the winner sits front three on the tissue, but you want to be thinking not the favourite, who last won this in 2014

The only five year olds are MAX VEGA 20/1, and LADY EXCALIBUR, 100/1 so I’m going to work with a six year old, trading shorter than 13/2.

One of those is the current market leader, DUBAI FUTURE, the other is Sir Michael Stoute’s SOLID STONE.

I’ve already stated I don’t like the stats of the favourite so I’m again….for Podcast purposes only, putting up a 20/80 SOLID STONE 20/80.

Stoute has a brilliant record with his runners here…six he has entered for this previously, won with two, placed with two others. The 12/1 winner of this race last year, he’s the only course and distance winner in the race and his form figures in fields of nine or fewer runners on turf read 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 1, 1, 5, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1, 4, that’s a winner of eight of his 14 in such races.



1.55pm Ayr

Five pesky 3-y-o’s in here and they are messing with my mind.

Having said that, three trade 33/1, 500/1 and 500/1….one though, trades very short at @ 5/4

I’m a stats man though and they suggest you need to be working with a five or six year old as they have won six of the nine running’s of this.

Also, arriving favourite isn’t really a good thing. Only two have won, compared to those trading second or third favourite, which have won five.

My feeling is though, the stats get blown out of the water here. Front three on the tissue currently are aged 3, 4 and 9….and the shortest priced older horse MARIE’S DIAMOND, who has drifted from 5/1 > 7/1 since the markets opened.

As we have had only one recent winner bigger than 6/1, I have to look front three for my winner.

I have said I cannot have the younger horses so for Podcast purposes, I’m going 20/80 EUCHAN GLEN.

I’m sure you are more likely to find this winner, than me!



2.15pm Newbury

You would not be looking to trust one age grouping over another here, the last 10 winners were aged 3, 6, 3, 7, 4, 10, 5, 5, 3, 4….I suppose…and I will do this, is consider working only with those five or younger.

If you are outside the front three on the tissue, you need snookers. Eight of the last 10 winners were trading front three and with only two horses having traded bigger than 9/2, I going with one of either TIS MARVELLOUS, or MANACCAN….3/1 and 7/2 respectively….now, as I’ve just pointed out, anything older than five is binned and with the favourite being aged eight, I have to row in with MANACCAN, the three year old.

I can see that of the 21 horses of that age group that have contested this in the last decade, 25% of them has won or placed.

Not an e.w. price I must go straight win.



2.50pm Newbury

The last two winners of this have been fifth on the tissue as they passed the post but prior to that pair, only one of the previous eight had been outside the front two….and five went off favourite.

The last favourite to win this, PIERRE LAPIN, who went on to become a seriously disappointing horse, was trained by Roger Varian, who trains tomorrow’s favourite, SAKHEER.

When the market opened, you could have got 6/4 about this horse….now best price I see is evens. And the rest of the field drifting.

Lightly raced juveniles are impossible to assess so I don’t try….I’ll let history give me clues and they all point to SAKHEER.

He dotted up at Haydock, beating ACAI (who has just run home third in a decent looking Newbury Maiden), by six lengths and whilst that form probably means diddly, and he moves up from Class 4 to Group 2, the market says he wins.



3.05pm Ayr

Juveniles….that just got stuck in my throat!

Four of the 12 going to post have only had two runs and whilst we have had two winning favourites in the last four running’s, we’ve also had winners at 25/1, 16/1, 11/1 and 16/1 again last year.

Four of the last six winners sat 8th, 6th, 7th and 6th on the tissue and the only way in here that I’m seeing is the official ratings of the winners.

You need your marbles shaking if you get involved in betting such races at this time of year BUT AGAIN, AND PURELY FOR Podcast purposes, I’m going to suggest a place only punt BAREFOOT ANGEL.

Trained by the only trainer with a runner here, that has won it before, Richard Fahey.

He has actually sent eight for this, won with one, placed with three others. The tard is in form, currently running a 66% RTF figure and the 20/1



3.40pm Ayr (handicap)

If the word on the street is right, we have a Group horse in a handicap here. The market tells you all you need to know.

KHANJAR opened 10/1 and was battered….now around 4/1 for a three year old to win a 25 runner all aged handicap. I’m sure we’ll find some clues regarding the draw before that race gores off but I’m already thinking low will be best….and this critter has a lovely box in five.

His trainer, Haggas, won this with a similar kind in NAHAARR two years ago….went off the 7/2 favourite and whilst that horse was a four year old, and more exposed that KHANJAR, the next season it was running in Group races.

It’s going to be pointless my even bothering to try and produce a Rating for this horse because as he’s only raced six times, is unexposed and if you saw him winning at Haydock, in a time that was “fast” by nearly a second, you will not be betting against him tomorrow.

There are horse in this race rated much higher than him officially, trading twice his price or bigger and whilst I like the look of FIVETHOUSANDTOONE, I see no point backing a horse at 12/1, that is exposed, is already officially rated 4lb lower than this three year old and likely to see just his backside. Great draw in three, his trainer has won this twice from just seven previous entries and he looks “place only gold”

Jim Crowley apparently said to Martin Dwyer, “this is a Group horse and I have a great book of rides up there on Saturday”

I’ll pop the Balding runner up place only and again, purely for Podcast purposes!



3.55pm Gowran Park

A scary Irish 15 runner Group 3 and I’m looking at it from a stats angle and rubbing my chin. The 3-y-o’s used to dominate this….won it in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015….but they’ve only won it twice since. Four and five year olds have won two a piece in the last six years.

I’m thinking that perhaps we say a three, four or five year old, trading 6/1 or shorter….I’m picking that price range because six of the last 10 winners were actually 11/2 or shorter.

On the tissue I have that gives me:


Ed Walker trains the middle named and the Brits have won this twice in the last 10 years but that only tells me it usually stays at home.

The first named is trained by Aiden O’Brien, the last named by Joseph O’Brien but the best drawn is surely GALLERIA BORGHESE, who breaks from the three box. You do not win this race from a double figure draw and Joseph’s runner has 17.

I have to go with Aiden’s runner.




3) GENOVESE – 18/1 > 9/1 – WON 13/2

2) MONTE IGUELDO – 25/1 > 12/1 – WON 14/1

1) PREMIER BEAUTY – 80/1 > 20/1 – WON 80/1

Something for the weekend



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