All juveniles so all fall in the right age/weight ranges and so, as is always the case, I’m looking at the markets and trainer stats to get my winner….they found us a 20/1 winner last time so, fingers crossed.
Nine of the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue, although the last winning favourite was KEW GARDENS back in 2017.
I can see only two winners in the last decade, that went off bigger than 7/2 and neither of them returned an SP bigger than 15/2 and only a pair of horse qualify based on the markets:
- FLYING HONOURS
- DEAR MY FRIEND
Both arrive for this as beaten favourites last time out and interestingly, the two times FLYING HONOURS has been beaten in his four starts, have been at Newmarket. He got done @ 2/7 last time and I could not take the 6/5 based on those facts.
DEAR MY FRIEND is around 13/2 right now and I’m thinking that if I had £10 to waste here, I’d rather have it to place on the second favourite, rather than on the nose of this favourite. I reckon the place play might even pay more than the win return if FLYING HONOURS breaks his Newmarket curse.
Officially he’s 6lb better than the Johnston runner but if he’s a stone worse a horse at Headquarters, then who knows?
I’ll go place only DEAR MY FRIEND
RON – DEAR MY FRIEND – PLACE ONLY
Seven Irish juveniles so little to go on. The front pair on the tissue I’m looking at have raced once, won once. Looking at my stats I see that five of the last eight favourites have won this, and that Aiden O’Brien has won six of those eight.
He saddles the favourite, BE HAPPY, and with nothing else to go on, no Paddy Twomey runner (he has won the last two renewals), to worry about, I’ll post up BE HAPPY as my selection but a dollop of guesswork as to how good the horse is.
RON – BE HAPPY
I’ve tears tripping me up now, as we trawl through yet another juvenile minefield.
First thing I’m doing is ruling out the fillies. They can win it but stats say colt/gelding wins it….seven of the last 10 renewals.
Seven of the last 10 winners were also front three on the tissue and they are colts tomorrow:
- ALPHA CAPTURE
- BOLT ACTION
- ROUSING ENCORE
At this point I should warn you that three winners that were not front three won this in 2017 – 25/1, 2019 – 10/1 and 2020 – 25/1 so typically end of season scary flat racing.
Southern based trainers have started to take a grip of this race, the last two heading back down the M1 and the front two on the tissue I have both hail from Newmarket.
My selection has to be BOLT ACTION. Trained by Roger Varian, who won this with the only other horse he has ever sent for it, MUSHIR, in 2013….that’s a long time between drinks but he’s very methodical is Roger and I’ll plump for his.
RON – BOLT ACTION
Another juvenile race and I’ll just rinse and repeat exactly what I said about the earlier race here regarding age and weight ranges.
Again you want to be sited front three on the tissue, eight of the last 10 winners were and right now they are:
- SILVER KNOTT
- HOLLOWAY BOY
The middle named arrives having had just one run so it’s impossible to get a handle on him. Not many take this having had just the one racecourse experience though, just one in the last five years, so I’d be with the other two.
The winner, based on how I work, is glaringly obvious….SILVER KNOTT. His trainer, Charlie Appleby, has won this three times in the last five years, and his bosses have won four of the last five so if stats and trends mean diddly, that horse wins this race.
RON – SILVER KNOTT
The current favourite here is a five year old and stats say no! Eight of the last 10 winners were aged three or four, with three year olds winning the last two and four of the last six….I’m going with the 3-y-o’s.
Six of the last nine winners were priced 3/1 or shorter, including the last three winners so, a three year old, trading front three on the tissue and I’ve two qualifiers:
- PIRATE JENNY
The second named is trained by Aiden O’Brien, who has not saddled the winner of this in the last decade. PIRATE JENNY is trained by Ger Lyons, who has trained the winner of two of the last four winners, including last years winning favourite, POWER UNDER ME.
Stats say that’s the most likely winner so, PIRATE JENNY for me, 20/80.
RON – PIRATE JENNY
As you can imagine, working on my third juvenile race on the bounce at this meeting, I’m now cheeks puffed out, and feel like a broken record.
Seven winning favourites in the last 10 years, three in the last four.
Only seven going to post but they are all decent horses. Even the 25/1 outsider, ROYAL SCOTSMAN, arrives having won two of his five races to date, and placed in another….and that placed effort came in the Coventry at Royal Ascot!
NOSTRUM has looked serious kit in both starts to date and easily beat HOLLOWAY BOY, who runs in the race before this one, over this course and distance.
Ryan Moore rode that day but is claimed by his boss to ride AESOP’S FABLES here. Beaten at odds on last time out but that was on soft ground. Before that he had looked top drawer.
We have an unbeaten Godolphin runner trading 7/2….and as we always say, until they are beaten, we have no idea how good they are. His last two wins came in Listed class, so he needs to improve to win this and is rated 5lb behind the best horse in the race on official ratings, CHALDEAN.
I’m a little concerned though, that his most impressive win to date came on soft ground. At York, on good ground, he beat INDESTRUCTIBLE by half a length in a Group 3. He then beat that same horse by three and a half lengths in the Champagne at Doncaster. If it rains and we get easy ground, he would be my pick but right now I’m going to plump for NOSTRUM.
The only CD winner in the race, very much on an upward trajectory and he arrives having won last time out….as did four of the last five winners.
A cracking good race and it’s the favourite for me, NOSTRUM.
RON – NOSTRUM
Newmarket 3.40pm (the obligatory handicap)
An end of season flat race, run over a trip most hurdlers would struggle to get. No surprise really, that the last four have been won by NH trainers….Mullins has won three, Nicky Henderson took it last year with BUZZ.
Alan King would join them as three of the top four most successful trainers of horses competing in this race over the last 10 years so, first thing I’m doing is listing horses trained by NH trainers:
- BABY ZEUS
Three of those are trained by Mullins but interestingly, his go to flat jockey, Ryan Moore, has opted to ride Henderson’s AHORSEWITHNONAME.
A seven year old, that has raced just five times on the flat, winning four and placing in the other.
The winner of six of the last eight of these races has been front three on the tissue and AHORSEWITHNONAME has already been “found” by punters….5/1 > 10/3 favourite.
I’m not going to overegg this omelette….this looks the most likely winner based on stats.
RON – AHORSEWITHNONAME
The last three winners of this went in at 12/1, 18/1 and 11/1 and in 2014 it was 20/1, in 2012 it went to a 12/1 shot.
All a bit Mission Impossible then if those trends stay live.
Seven of the last 10 winners have been 3-y-o’s, so I’ll create a shortlist of those:
- ANOTHER ROMANCE
- AZURE BLUE
- GOLDEN SPICE
- LOVELY MANA
- PINK CRYSTAL
They all hit the correct weight ranges so market positions next. I’m looking at the front seven on the tissue first, as eight of the last 10 winners were. So that shortlist now reads
- ANOTHER ROMANCE
- AZURE BLUE
- PINK CRYSTAL
Down to four and a dutch will produce a profit at BF odds.
If you are looking for one horse to play 20/80 then it has to be MANAAFITH. His trainer, Roger Varian, is the only trainer with a runner here, that has won this race previously. He has sent six for it, won with one, placed with another.
Six of the last nine winners came from a double figure draw and he has 13….hopefully not unlucky for some!
RON – MANAAFITH
Looks as tough as old boots on paper, not least because the only clue I have from an age and weight banding perspective is you do not want to be carrying more than 9st 3lb….only one of the last 10 winners pulled that off so the only horse I can select from this field is OTTOMAN FLEET.
The market suggests he’s priced right @ 11/2, he’s a 3-y-o and they have won three of the last five renewals.
In the “olden days” between 2013 and 2015 inclusive, I’d have said forget this race as they were won by horses returning SP’s of 25/1, 20/1 and 40/1 but apart from the 28/1 shocker in 2020, this has been easier to solve, with four of the last five winners returning prices of 13/2 or shorter….John Gosden took a pair with winners priced 7/2f and 3/1 last season.
Not a race I’d get heavily involved in and a little 20/80 OTTOMAN FLEET hopefully produce a profit.
RON – OTTOMAN FLEET – 20/80
- RICKETY GATE – 8/1 > 5/1 – WON 11/4F
- JACK THUNDER – 8/1 > 9/2 – WON 7/2
- HALF SHOT – 11/1 > 7/2 – WON 3/1
Something for the weekend
RON – AHORSEWITHNONAME