The flat season is drawing to a close but this weekend we have Cheltenham back and a few races discussed there in this weeks Podcast.
We also look at the bargain buy that is HEWICK, look back at Champions Day, and discuss matters racing!
For those hard of hearing please find my side of the conversation below, with our selections for plenty of races on Saturday.
Best of luck!
The Boys In Blue are simply mopping up the end of season juvenile events, as evidenced yesterday at Newmarket. Don’t know about you, but I’m finding it boring? I mean, I’m no fan of flat racing once September ends anyway but this is all a bit bland.
They will saddle the favourite here but that’s a bad thing. No winning favourite in the last 10 years. However, we have had seven second and third favourites winning so looking at the current tissue for this race, I have to run with either CARAGIO or LORD OF BISCAY.
The first named is trained by Roger Teal who won this with KENZAI WARRIOR in 2019, his only previous runner in this race.
Varian trains LORD OF BISCAY and he has saddled four for this race, in the last decade….only placed with one of them.
No shock to see STRIKING STAR absolutely hose up but stats suggest a 20/80 CARAGIO so if I was betting (which I’m not!), that would be my play.
RON – CARAGIO – 20/80
SEAN – KNIGHT – E.W.
I think I spotted the winner of this before I started working on it. Let’s see if I’m right via stats/trends!
You need to be trading first of second on the tissue as six of the last nine winners were….ticks that box.
Age makes not a lot of difference and the last four winners were 4, 7, 5, and 3….so with not a lot else to work with I’m looking at trainer form in this race.
Haggas has sent four for it….won with two (last year and 2018), and he saddles the clear favourite, HAMISH, on Saturday.
That was the horse that gave me a wink and a thumbs up when I opened this race up….HAMISH, even if even money is tight.
RON – HAMISH
SEAN – HAMISH
Good to firm ground right now and this will decimate these fields. Only five turn up here right now and with the winner never out of the front three in the market, we have only two binned.
None of the five has winning form on good to firm….none has ever raced on it, so I’ll stick with my tried and tested “Cheltenham Form matters” mantra and put up the front two to produce the winner:
- PIED PIPER
- KNIGHT SALUTE
PIED PIPER is currently favourite and we’ve not had a winning favourite since 2013 so I’m simply going to chuck KNIGHT SALUTE in as a Podcast pick.
His trainer, Milton Harris, was interviewed recently and he said this horse had improved tons, schooled brilliantly, and he couldn’t wait for Saturday.
KNIGHT SALUTE for me.
RON – KNIGHT SALUTE
SEAN – BELLA SCINTILLA
Cheltenham 3.15pm (throwing in a handicap)
The good to firm already has this down to seven, and it could yet be six as Gary Moore has not declared a pilot for his.
I’ll have figures done on Saturday morning but looking at it now, from a Scribblings point of view, and having only seven previous running’s to work with, I’d suggest you want an 8-y-o, making seasonal debut because three of the last five winners were.
That means a bit of a surprise result if that comes off again because the pair that fit the bill are THE WIDDOW MAKER, having first run in the name of Joe Tizzard, and POSEIDON, having his first run for Gordon Elliott, and who has not won a race since October 2021.
That win at Cork was his only win over fences in 10 attempts…THE WIDDOW MAKER has had three runs over fences, won one, placed in two.
Currently around the 8/1 mark, I’ll put it up as a 20/80 and hope for a run for my money….not that I’m betting, but you know what I mean!
- – because EDITUER DU GITE looks set to run, Ron changed his selection!!!
RON – EDITEUR DU GITE
SEAN – CLEAR THE RUNWAY
More darned juveniles. Strangely, none of the trainers represented in this on Saturday, has saddled the winner previously.
Five of the last six winners were front two on the tissue at the off and so I’d be looking to dutch whatever they are (I have nothing to work with right now)….in fact, you could just right FAP on your betting slip and sit tight. The favourites have won three of the last five, and the last two of these and for Podcast purposes, I’ll simply say FAP, straight win.
RON – SMALL OASIS
SEAN – SMALL OASIS
I do not see any danger to the favourite here…based on trends. Form might be a different matter.
AUGUSTE RODIN is already clear favourite for next years Derby and is only 5/4 to win this on Saturday.
His trainer, Aiden O’Brien has taken three of the last five running’s of this race and Irish trained horses have won four of the last five.
We’ve had rain up north and this fella scooted in last time out on soft but the runner up has been beaten easily since in a Group 3.
The second favourite was beaten in a Group 3 last time and it’s 12/1 bar this pair.
I just shrugged, told myself to go with stats and will say AUGUSTE RODIN wins.
RON – AUGUSTE RODIN
SEAN – AUGUSTE RODIN
This had 16 going to post on Wednesday when I first looked….now just five head to post. Two have yet to have jockeys booked and it might be a three runner farce yet!
Our hero GALVIN won this in 2020 before he went on to pay for my new garden furniture in March the next year.
GALVIN’s trainer has two in here ASH TREE MEADOW and CHEMICAL ENERGY, the second named a winner just over a month ago. Elliott says he’s a horse best caught fresh so that might be him done for the season already. He says of ASH TREE MEADOW that this will be his last race until the spring, that he has taken really well to fences and that there is a “big one” in him.
He is also declared to run tomorrow in the 2-10, so we could yet end up with a match here!
If he runs ASH TREE HOUSE in this race, he’s my pick, if he doesn’t and only two turn up, I’ll just watch.
RON – ASH TREE HOUSE
SEAN – MAHLER MISSION
5-00 – BEAULD AS BRASS – 9/2 > 7/2 > 9/4 – VERY STRONG – WON 13/8
7-00 – COPPICE – 11/4 > 6/4 > 6/5 – VERY STRONG – WON 10/11
7-30 – MOUNT ATHOS – 3/1 > 9/4 > 15/8 – STRONG – WON 2/1
Something for the weekend
RON – TREBLE – HAMISH, AUGUSTE RODIN, SMALL OASIS
SEAN – KNIGHT E.W.