Ahoy Senor, it’s a Bravemansgame! Yep, it’s the Charlie Hall and much more!

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The World of Sport
Ahoy Senor, it's a Bravemansgame! Yep, it's the Charlie Hall and much more!
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Guinness in a paper cup @ £7.50, why shouldn’t the bookmakers put more into racing given the profits they make and all the big race winners this weekend!

Saturday

Ayr 1.23pm

Skull and crossbones alert!!!

Irish trained NONBINDING, the current 8/11 favourite, with Sean Bowen heading up to ride five for Gordon Elliott and you can imagine a treble, minimum being secured.

The second favourite, GLORY BRIDGE, runs in the colours of the late Trevor Hemmings and he looked good in a Bumper 228 days ago, but you imagine he’s a 10 mile chaser in the making.

The favourite though is no superstar and if anyone takes the odds on they need their bumps feeling.

One of the two mentioned wins this race and unless the market suggests GLORY BRIDGE has a bit of speed about him, I’ll put up the favourite as a Podcast selection only but not a penny will be parted with here!

RON – NONBINDING

SEAN – GLORY BRIDGE

Galway 2.53pm

No text for this race but we both selected GUILY BILLY

Wetherby 3.00pm

Only one winning favourite in the last 10 years so SPORTING JOHN, who drifted from his opening show of 6/4 > 15/8….now 7/4 again, is not my pick here based on that stat.

The 2nd, 3rd and fourth favourites have won nine between them, and last years winner, INDEFATIGABLE, is sitting second favourite. He’s a nine year old now though and only one of that age has pulled this off in the last 10 years.

The two outsiders arrive running first time since a wind-op, and with it seemingly required to be arriving here making seasonal debut, four of the last five winners were, I rule out PROSCHEMA.

Seven of the last 10 winners were 5/1 or shorter and with the lot chucked into a blender I have to row in with last years winner, INDEFATIGABLE.

He was given a pipe opener at Pontefract recently, as he was last year, and it looks a plan to me.

RON – INDEFATIGABLE

SEAN – SPORTING JOHN

Wetherby 3.35pm

One of AHOY SENOR or BRAVEMANSGAME wins this and there is very little between them on the tissue, 11/2 bar the pair.

BRAVEMANSGAME is just favourite and in the last 10 years that has been a millstone around the neck….no winning favourite of this since CUE CARD in 2015.

If they flip flop in the betting, I’m with the second favourite and so, right this second, my selection is AHOY SENOR. He beat BRAVEMANSGAME a distance at Aintree in April and whilst that was obviously not the favourites form, I’ll take the second favourite to beat him again.

RON – AHOY SENOR

SEAN – BRAVEMANSGAME

Ascot 3.50pm

A double figure field! All bar one are making seasonal debut and we are still a week away from the core season starting. However, the bigger yards are now starting to blow hot and the last three of these have been won by Nicholls and Henderson, with five winning favourites in the last 10 years, and nine of those 10 winners sited front three on the tissue.

Henderson isn’t represented here but Nicholls relies on HOLETOWN HERO, who we’ve only seen in Bumpers so far but will most likely go off the favourite because of the yard he comes from.

Nicholls has run four in this, in the last decade, won with a pair, placed with another so he’s not just using it for “sighters”….he’s out to win it.

After his final run last season they gave it the wind-op that even the staff probably get at that yard.

It’s impossible to gauge any of them ACCURATELY and all you can do here is trust to the market. I have no prices for a race like this yet but if, as is probable, HOLETOWN HERO is front three on the tissue, he’s my pick.

A no bet race but purely for Podcast purposes. It will be interesting to read the OMMS in my Update Newsletter tomorrow morning.

RON – HOLETOWN HERO – 20/80

SEAN – LEAVE OF ABSENCE

Newmarket 3.58pm

We have 10 juveniles here and sitting at the head of the tissue is a Godolphin runner, DREAM OF LOVE, trained by Appleby. Surprise, surprise!

One run, one win. Again, surprise, surprise.

The favourites tag has been a bit of a ball and chain in recent years, not one winning in the last four years, after four had obliged in the previous six.

You do not want to be coming here exposed. Four of the last five winners had no more than three runs, one was winning on debut and the other three came here having won last time out.

Front three on the tissue, arriving having won last time out, but no more than three runs on the board….that’s my criteria here. If that holds true, the winner is one of DREAM OF LOVE or CONVERSATIONALIST.

I am going to be a coward and run with the favourite, as she is a previous course winner (the only one in the field), and with the right connections.

Dermot Weld sends over the second favourite but she has already been beaten in three of her four starts and fails on all my criteria.

RON – DREAM OF LOVE

SEAN – KEEP IN TOUCH

Newmarket 4.33pm

The winner of the last five running’s of this have been favourite (3), or second favourite.

Three year olds have a brilliant record given they are generally underrepresented. We have seen just 16 of that age group running in this race in the last 10 years and they won four, and placed in four.

Guess what, we have a Godolphin owned, Appleby trained favourite in OTTOMAN FLEET! He also trains the third favourite, too, ROYAL FLEET….looks like he’s definitely got his fleet under the table here!

Of the pair it has to be OTTOMAN FLEET for me. He arrives having placed second last time out, whilst his stable companion ran third. The last five winners of this arrived having either won, or placed second so, with the second favourite a  veritable crusty at the age of six, and having finished only eighth last time out, it has to be OTTOMAN FLEET….a question though….why Doyle riding the third favourite, with Ryan Moore up on the jolly?

RON – OTTOMAN FLEET

SEAN – NOBEL

Wetherby 4.45pm

I’ll have this Rated and in Newsletters tomorrow but let’s mini-profile it:

Nothing older than nine, nothing younger than six. Not carrying less than 11st 4lb, but carrying 12st or more looks a positive….only three have tried in the last 10 years, one won, two placed….but I’ll have a cut off point of 11st 8lb because you’ve nailed five of the last eight winners doing that.

Market position….has to be front four, as eight of the last 10 winners were.

So, in short, a horse no younger than six, no older than nine, not carrying more than 11st 8lb and no less than 11st 4lb and fancied.

Two qualifiers:

  • TANGO BOY
  • AKI BOMAYE

The second named is racing first time following a wind-op and arrives a novice having only seen fences three times and raced under rules just five times in his life.

Without a doubt he’ll have a bright red question mark against his name in the Newsletter, which indicates a horse that is impossible to rate accurately, but the fact he’s here for a race like this might suggest his wind-op has worked.

He won his only PTP, is a chaser all over, but if I put him up, I’m guessing.

I also do not like the fact only one seven year old, from the 25 that have tried, have won this in the last 10 years and so I’m going 20/80 TANGO BOY.

He’s nine, also arrives a novice….very lightly raced for a horse of his age, just three starts over fences and his trainer won this race in 2018.

The Ratings will make for an interesting read though.

RON – TANGO BOY – 20/80

SEAN – ASHFIELD PADDY – E.W.

OMMS

  • ORBITAL CHIME – 9/2 > 9/4 – WON 15/8F
  • PEKING ROSE – 8/1 > 11/4 – WON 5/2F
  • LEGEND OF XANADU – 33/1 > 20/1 – WON 12/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – INDEFATIGABLE

SEAN – GUILY BILLY & SPORTING JOHN

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