Will the stars align again this week in the Paddy Power Gold Cup?

0
The World of Sport
Will the stars align again this week in the Paddy Power Gold Cup?
Loading
/

Do we have another TANGO BOY lined up? Last time out we nailed TANGO BOY and our target this week is The Paddy Power Gold Cup….speaking of which, how crazy is it that Paddy Power has paid out on a winner, that has not raced yet?

Just two of the subjects discussed this week, with plenty of winners for Saturday tagged on!

The text of my side of the races discussed for our hard of hearing listeners.

Naas 12.55pm

Five runners, one priced 300/1 so, in essence, a four runner race.

We have another priced 12/1 and as we’ve had no winner of this return bigger than 11/2 in the last 10 years….effectively one of three wins it.

Gordon Elliott has trained the last three winners and also four of the last six, so he obviously targets it and his FIL DOR is my pick to beat BRAZIL….the market says one of them wins it and I also like the fact this one is currently second favourite behind BRAZIL, because the last favourite to win this was in 2016….and before that 2013.

RON – FILS DOR

SEAN – FILS DOR

Cheltenham 12.35pm

A Triumph Hurdle trial but the winner in March is not in this field. I mentioned the name of the Triumph winner in another Podcast not so long ago.

Easy enough to solve….usually. You need to be trading front two on the tissue….eight of the last 10 winners were. You also need to be arriving as the winner of your last race….the last seven had done that, too.

The current favourite is the Nicholls trained BLUEKING D’OUROUX who has raced three times over hurdles in France, winning one.

Two things put me off him. First, he arrives not having won last time out and second, he is favourite. Now, I know I said you need to be front two on the tissue but, we have had three second favourites winning this in the last three running’s, the favourite out of the frame, or pulling up.

That makes SCRIPTWRITER the one I want to be with tomorrow.

If this was a flat race, he’d be odds on based on his six-length 5th of 10 to COREOBUS in a Group 3 at Newmarket in October 2021 and we get very few horses rated 102 coming off the flat to go hurdling these days.

He dotted up on debut at Sedgefield and the £62k they paid Coolmore to get this one could be money well spent.

RON – SCRIPTWRITER

SEAN – BLUEKING D’OUROUX

Naas 2-05pm

Another small field affair, just five going to post, with GENTLEMAN DE MEE trading 4/11. The last odds on shot to win this was also trained by the bloke responsible for this favourite, Willie Mullins. I don’t see him as a Champion Chaser….much better suited to places like Aintree, where he battered the 2022 Arkle winner EDWARDSTONE in April.

I cannot see him getting beaten here.

RON – GENTLEMAN DE MEE

SEAN – GENTLEMAN DE MEE

Cheltenham 1.45pm

The Arkle Trial but if Paddy Power are right doing what they have done, no matter how good these are, they are playing for second place come March.

None of the last 10 winners have been outside the front four on the tissue, and when it comes to age, four and five year olds have won nine of the last 10 so take out anything younger, or older.

That gives me MONMIRAL or BANBRIDGE to choose from.

Of the last five running’s of this, only one won it when making seasonal debut and that then points me towards BANBRIDGE, as MONMIRAL is making seasonal debut.

BANBRIDGE also has a course win to his name and previous Cheltenham form is always a positive.

He hosed in by just under nine lengths at Gowran at the beginning of October and I’ll throw a cheeky fiver at him.

RON – BANBRIDGE

SEAN – PENTLAND HILLS

Cheltenham 2.20pm

A handicap so I’ll mini profile it.

Age groupings first. Only two of the last 10 winners were younger than seven, none were older than nine so….horses aged 7-9 first:

  • MISTER FISHER
  • SIMPLY THE BETTS
  • HAPPYGOLUCKY
  • STOLEN SILVER
  • FRENCH DYNAMITE
  • MIDNIGHT RIVER
  • UMBRIGADO
  • STORM CONTROL
  • DEYRANN DE CARJAC

The last seven winners were in those age groups so it’s solid as stats go.

Weight ranges next and whilst they look a little all over the place I’m happy to say 10st 11lb – 11st 8lb as you would have found seven of the last 10 winners using those.

Market position….no winning favourite in the last decade but, seven of the last 10 winners were front six so, let’s leave the current favourite out, FRENCH DYNAMITE, and take those carrying the correct weight, and the right age and see what we have left.

  • STOLEN SILVER
  • MIDNIGHT RIVER

Priced 7/1 and 12/1 respectively at the moment my thinking is to dutch them but my eyes are drawn again to the letter C next to the name of STOLEN SILVER so he’s my 20/80 selection.

If he tops my figures tomorrow, as TANGO BOY did the last time we did this, I’ll be in like Flynn!

RON – STOLEN SILVER – 20/80

SEAN – MIDNIGHT RIVER – E.W.

Wetherby 2.28pm

Only five going to post but the biggest priced of them is 9/2, with the favourite trading 11/4 so, as tight as the proverbial drum….should be a good race to watch!

We have only had four previous running’s of this race, the first two won by the favourite, the last pair going to the second favourites.

All four races to date have been won by five year olds and so I’m going to put up the shortest priced of the two qualifiers….THRONE HALL….a 94 rated horse of the flat and my philosophy used to be, a good flat horse, will always beat a good NH horse over hurdles. Ultra consistent on the flat, winning and placing in 11 of his 17 races on turf under that code, he has taken well to jumping and I hope he has to much speed for these.

RON – THRONE HALL

SEAN – THRONE HALL

Lingfield 2.35pm

Where the heck do I start….the last five winners were won by horse aged 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, we’ve had two winning favourites in the last two years (the same horse), and before that, a 20/1 shot popped up.

Market position is the best place to be looking. Seven of the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue and they are SUMMERGHAND, LOGO HUNTER and JUDICIAL, who won this in 2019.

I’m liking the stats produced by runners David O’Meara sends for this….six runners in the last decade, won with one, placed with two and so I’ll put up SUMMERGHAND….an eight year old so, if he wins tomorrow and we do this race again next year, I’ll be able to say the last six winners have been aged 4, 5, 6, 7, 8….what a bogus way to pick a selection!

RON – SUMMERGHAND

SEAN – SUMMERGHAND

Lingfield 3.10pm

Twelve going to post and won last year by bargain basement horse PYLEDRIVER.

Interesting that Aiden O’Brien sends BOLSHOI BALLET over to make his seasonal debut having been missing for 335 days!

The market stats tell me that you need to be front two on the tissue as eight of the last 10 winners were so it’s one of MISSED THE CUT, or the Irish raider BOLSHOI BALLET for me.

We have had five winning favourites in that time and no winner at all bigger than 10/1….and that was the only winner bigger than 6/1.

Purely for Podcast purposes, I’m selecting BOLSHOI BALLET. He is a four year old and they have won the last three running’s of this race and had 12 of the 25 that represented that age group winning or placing….he’s a 20/80 for obvious reasons but he’s a Group 1 horse in a Listed race so, if they have him anywhere near the form he can produce he’ll skittle these.

RON – BOLSHOI BALLET – 20/80

SEAN – BOLSHOI BALLET

OMMS

The best of this weeks OMMS were….:

  • GUNNERY OFFICER – 33/1 > 14/1 – WON 4/1
  • NAVARRA PACE – 33/1 > 14/1 – WON 13/2
  • HOWZAK – 20/1 > 11/1 – WON 12/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – SCRIPTWRITER / THRONE HALL – E.W. DOUBLE

SEAN – HIDDEN VALUE LAKE (Naas 12-20) / PENTLAND HILLS

- PLAY EUROMILLIONS! -
Previous articleAhoy Senor, it’s a Bravemansgame! Yep, it’s the Charlie Hall and much more!
Next articleLast week a 45/1 double nailed….this week?