Are the prices being asked by hotels in Cheltenham for the week of the Festival realistic? Why are punters never asked for an opinion on how racing could be better and should racecourses ask for reduced entry fees when they have few runners?
Please find below Ron’s side of the conversation and selections of both
The great shame tomorrow is that five of the seven races we discuss now sees just 24 horses racing across five of them, that provide a quarter of a million pounds in prize money.
Well, the trip is fine for all six going to post but the ground? Living not a million miles from the track I have to think it’s borderline heavy there now given the rain we have had in this area but, who knows?
Only SIZING POTSIE has even raced on the going as is still officially advised good to soft (IT CANNOT BE GOOD TO SOFT, TRUST ME!), and all I am going to do here is say that with the favourite having won six of the last 10 running’s, and three of the last four, I’ll suggest the Nicholls runner, TAHMURAS.
He has run eight in this in the last decade, won with one, placed with two so that horse is my Podcast selection….however, I advise checking the OMMS tomorrow morning because we’ll have an accurate going description and the money will tell us what to expect.
RON – TAHMURAS
SEAN – SIZING POTSIE
I only have six previous running’s of this to work with, those six have been won by a 4-y-o, a five year old, a six year old and two seven year olds. I feel like I’m trying to knit yogurt.
Three arrive all rated 125 and all carrying 11st 2lb so tight best describes it!
What to do….well, based on those six previous running’s I want a horse that has run this season, but not won and the one that fits is PANIC ATTACK.
I’d not have a bet here to save my life but for Podcast purposes, he gets the gig.
RON – PANIC ATTACK
SEAN – WYNN HOUSE
Down to just four runners and if HITMAN doesn’t win head in chest I’ll be stunned and I imagine Nicholls will be too. He’s officially 10lb and more the best horse in the race, and six year olds have dominated this in the last decade, taking four of them.
The problem is, he does appear have this passion for having a horse finish in front of him. He has always been touted as a potential superstar but three wins and eight placed efforts from 13 starts tells a tale.
Would you take 4/7 about a dodgepot like him?
Should win but I’m just watching.
RON – HITMAN
SEAN – HITMAN
If I told you that Venetia Williams has not trained a winner since April, would you feel inclined to take 4/7 L’HOMME PRESSE here?
Will HITMAN run here, or at Haydock? If he doesn’t run here then the favourite only really has SAINT CALVADOS to beat. Officially, he’s only 3lb the better of the two and gets 3lb so is nearly half a stone best in here and whereas SAINT CALVADOS is 0-2 on the ground as currently described, L’HOMME PRESSE is 3-4 and unbeaten at the trip, whilst ST CALVADOS is 0-3….but that stable form stinks and I could not bet here using stolen money.
RON – L’HOMME PRESSE
SEAN – L’HOMME PRESSE
Haydock 2.25pm (handicap)
Two of the last three winners of this went in @ 16/1 but we’ll mini-profile it and see what happens.
Age groupings first and, in the last 10 years seven winners have been aged five of six….but the last two winners have been aged seven and eight….got to run with younger horses though.
Seven of the last 10 winners carried less than 11st 7lb but more than 10st 6lb and, whilst we have had winners going in at daft prices only one has been outside the front seven on the tissue….and we have not had a winning favourite in those 10 years either.
So, I want a horses aged five or six, carrying less than 11st 7lb, more than 10st 6lb and trading front seven on the tissue….but not the favourite.
- GOOD RISK AT ALL
- COMPLETE UNKNOWN
- GET A TONIC
- BOTOX HAS
Only one horse, in the last five years, has won this making seasonal debut so any of the above that have not raced recently get binned.
- GOOD RISK AT ALL
- BOTOX HAS
Down to three.
Currently priced 6/1, 10/1 & 14/1 that’s a decent enough dutch to be making but looking for one to go 20/80 I’d suggest GOOD RISK AT ALL.
I did point out how many big priced winners we have seen in recent times but it’s also hot to be said that six of the last 10 winners were a single figure price and GOOD RISK AT ALL fits. If it is slower than advertised, then that will suit as he won easily on heavy last time out.
RON – GOOD RISK AT ALL
SEAN – WHOLESTONE E.W.
After JONBON doing what he did the other day and Henderson saying CONSITUTION HILL did a frightening piece of work this week, you look at the four taking him on and simply asking, “what comes second”.
I feel sorry for GOSHEN being told he has to give this favourite 3lb, when he is already 13lb behind him on official ratings!
RON – CONSITUTION HILL
SEAN – CONSITUTION HILL
A PLUS TARD must win this whatever the ground. He is 16lb and more the best horse in this race, won it easily last season. Henry De Bromhead was interviewed on TV yesterday and said the horse is in great form.
I’m not one for betting horses at 4/7 and if it did ride heavy that might be a slight concern but he should have far too much for these.
RON – A PLUS TARD
SEAN – A PLUS TARD
- CATLIN – 14/1 > 8/1 – WON 13/2
- BRAGANZA BOY – 25/1 > 7/1 > 11/2 – WON 9/4F
- ENDLESS ESCAPE – 40/1 > 18/1 – WON 12/1
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – GOOD RISK AT ALL – 20/80
SEAN – NOWT