The racing this week has been a dogs backside but it brightens up from tomorrow and we’ve had a good natter about racing issues, especially the crazy amounts spent on PTP horses, and offered up selections on a good few races across Saturday and Sunday
Below you have my opinion on the races discussed, for our hard of hearing members/readers.
It’s just typical of the time of year that we are going to be talking mostly Novices. We’ll also be talking racing with not a lot of back history to them, this race, for instance, just three previous running’s and no stats to play with at all.
The tissue I’m looking at suggests one of three wins it because the other quartet are 33/1 or bigger.
It’s a headscratcher as I say because it such a young race but the favourite, HITCHING JACKING, had the form of his win let down when the horse he beat at Uttoxeter got turned over @ 1/3 up at Ayr.
The third favourite, GALUDON has yet to even place in two hurdles races, the last he went off 5/4 to win.
That leaves me with the second favourite CHOOSETHENEWS, who won on debut for Mark Walford, is unbeaten in two (one a PTP in Ireland), and if the horse he beat in that PTP, by 25 lengths, lands the odds in the Sedgefield 2-20 (I’ll just check that result now!)….
I’ll run with the Walford runner but no confidence in the selection at all.
RON – CHOOSETHENEWS
SEAN – CHOOSETHENEWS
Another small field Novice event, just four runners….interesting though.
Gordon Elliott sends one over for it, THE GOFFER, who was beaten 11 lengths last time out by one that we’ll be discussing for tomorrow, HA D’OR.
Paul Nicholls trains the current favourite, COMPLETE UNKNOWN and as he has won the last two running’s plus the one run in 2013….the last two winning at odds on, you have to respect it.
However, I’m going to put up GALIA DES LITEAUX. Something was clearly expected last time out as she went off at just 5/2 to beat THYME HILL and MCFABULOUS.
She made a heck of a mistake at the second and that knocked her confidence big time.
She might come out tomorrow and we find the fences scare her stiff now but she sluiced up on chasing debut at Bangor in November beating MIAH GRACE, who franked that form winning next time up.
Again, no confidence in this selection because of the “ifs, buts and maybes”, but she’s the right age group….seven….as is the favourite (they’ve won eight of the last 10 of these), is rated only 1lb behind the favourite on official ratings, yet gets 2lb.
Obviously if she hits a fence like she did last time we’re scuppered, but I’ll post her up as my selection here.
RON – GALIA DES LITEAUX
SEAN – THE GOFFER
Sheesh, this reads like a veterans race!
Three of the six are 10 or older. Only two horses aged older than nine have won this, with six of the last nine winners seven or eight.
If I apply those stats then only PIC D’ORHY can win this but since the market opened he is 11/10 > 11/8.
A previous CD winner though and Harry Cobden rides….that’ll do for me.
It’ll be interesting to see how ANGELS BREATH runs….been off the track for 1121 days after winning a two horse race for Nicky Henderson in December 2019. If your memory is good you’ll remember him beating FIRST FLOW easily in the November that year and that horse was unbeaten in six races through 2020.
RON – PIC D’ORHY
SEAN – ANGELS BREATH
Another Novice event but we get to see the horse we both fancied last week, KNOWSLEY ROAD. He was pulled out then but he’s 10/3 favourite for this right now.
One in my 20/80, GINNY’S DESTINY, sits second favourite and he bolted up last time out @ 18/1, beating another of tomorrow’s runners, MEXICO, nearly nine lengths in the process.
Only 7/2 to follow up that win tomorrow, I have to follow my own 20 To Follow list and run with him.
Seven of the last 10 winners of this were priced 7/2 or shorter and the trainer of my selection won this in 2021 with ADRIMEL. The trainer of KNOWSLEY ROAD, Paul Nicholls, has never had one run in this, in that same time span.
GINNY’S DESTINY is a previous CD winner, is rated 2lb superior to KNOWSLEY ROAD.
We do have a massive negative….no seven year old has won this in the last 10 years, hence my going 20/80.
RON – GINNY’S DESTINY – 20/80
SEAN – KNOWSLEY ROAD
Kempton 2.40pm (handicap)
A proper race. Give me a 20 runner handicap any day of the week!
Eight of the last 10 running’s of the Lanzarote have gone to horses aged 6, 7 & 8 so my first shortlist comprises of 19 of the 20 runners….only Jonjo’s PETIT TONNERE get’s binned as he’s a five year old.
We have seen 16 of that age group try to win this and only one has won, another has placed. That winner came way back in 2015.
He also carries 11st 8lb and nothing in the last 10 years has carried more than 11st 7lb.
Eight of the last 10 winners carried between 10st 10lb and 11st 7lb so I’ll go with:
- COBBLERS DREAM
- QUINTA DO MAR
- STAG HORN
- HARBOUR LAKE
- SHANTOU EXPRESS
- WEST BALBOA
- FIFTY BALL
- OUTLAW PETER
- UP FOR PAROL
- MARK OF GOLD
Half the field gone at that stage.
Next I’m looking at market position and whilst we had a 66/1 winner in 2021 only last years winner, COBBLERS DREAM, has come home a double figure price. Favourites have an awful record, just two winners in the last decade, three of the last four not even finishing the race.
From that list only one horse qualifies….WEST BALBOA.
Currently a solid 9/1 on the tissue that’ll be my 20/80 but I’d be nuts not to point out that the current favourite travels over from Ireland, has been backed 13/2 > 5/1 and is the only horse in the front five on the tissue that represents the dominant age group, which is six.
RON – WEST BALBOA – 20/80
SEAN – SCARFACE E.W.
Would you Adam and Eve it….another Novice event. Nine runners, seven of which are trying this trip for the first time, four have never raced on the going as currently described and the current tissue favourite is one of those, is already 0-1 at the trip and never run at the track.
Only eight previous running’s of the race but with four of the last five going to seven year olds, I’ll run with that.
Only one winner has returned bigger than 4/1 so if the runes speak true, one of CLONBURY BRIDGE or MUST BE OBEYED wins this.
MUST BE OBEYED has to cart 12st and nothing in the past has won carrying more than 11st 7lb so it has to be CLONBURY BRIDGE for me, 20/80.
RON – CLONBURY BRIDGE – 20/80
SEAN – INNOVATOR
When I looked only three of the five entries had jockeys booked to ride and the pair that don’t have absolutely no chance of winning this.
Stats say only two horses can win this, IMPAIRE ET PASSE or SHECOULDBEANYTHING….and she could, too!
Mullins has won six of the last 10 running’s of this and Elliott two. Between them they have been responsible for the six of the favourites that have won this in the last nine years.
I’ll keep it simple….whichever of the two they make favourite, wins the race.
RON – IMPAIRE ET PASSE
SEAN – IMPAIRE ET PASSE
It’s just typical Irish Graded racing. Small field…only seven in here, it could have been worse, it might yet be as one has an alternative entry at Fairyhouse tomorrow….and I only have five previous running’s to work with, four of which have gone to the favourite.
The last three winners have gone off 4/7, 1/2 and 1/2 ….but this has a more competitive feel to it with the winner most likely coming from HA D’OR, JOURNEY WITH ME or MINELLA CROONER…all were winners last time out.
No six year old has won it yet so I’ll drop HA D’OR, who will now win by 20 lengths and go odds on for the Irish Arkle on the day I fly out for my holiday!
Of the other pair, and with absolutely no confidence at all, I’ll go for JOURNEY WITH ME. He is a winner on heavy, which they have over there, he is 3-4 at the trip, whilst MINELLA CROONER is 0-1 trip and never raced on heavy.
Far to many question marks for me to even think about betting and anyway, my phone will be on airplane mode but JOURNEY FOR ME, for Podcast purposes only!
RON – JOURNEY WITH ME
SEAN – HA D’OR
- BOLLIN NEIL – 13/2 > 11/2 – WON 9/2
- CALMLY – 13/2 > 11/2 > 15/2 – WON 7/1
- ACED IT – 11/1 > 8/1 – WON 5/2
Something for the weekend
RON – E.W. TREBLE – GINNY’S DESTINY, CHOOSETHENEWS, CLONBURY BRIDGESEAN – BLOODS DESTINY