Eight races at Cheltenham and Doncaster dissected plus racing topics discussed

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The World of Sport
The World of Sport
Eight races at Cheltenham and Doncaster dissected plus racing topics discussed
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This weeks Podcast dissects the eight races being used for competition purposes this week, and we char about the brilliant Milton Bradley, who sadly passed away this week, the brilliance of Paul Townend and the initiative being trialed at Fontwell

Below is my side of the racing discussed and you can choose to use, or ignore our advice when making your competition selections!

CHELTENHAM 11-40

Obviously this will be won by a 4-y-o and as only one filly has won this previously (went off 1/7 to do so), I feel safe in saying we can rule out the current lady trading around 80/1.

I’d usually go looking for a Nicky Henderson trained runner as he has won four of the last nine running’s but he’s not represented this year.

Interestingly the Irish have started to target this race, taking two of the last three.

Seven of the last nine winners were sitting front two on the tissue and right now they are:

  • COMFORT ZONE
  • JUPITER DU GITE

They are also the only runners in this race with winning form on the going as currently described  and as both arrive having won last time out, which is a definite requirement (seven of the last nine winners did so), I’m extremely confident one of them wins.

You can dutch to make a profit or simply punt COMFORT ZONE to be come the third Irish trained winner in the last four running’s.

For Podcast and competition purposes, I’ll put him up but it’s the dutch I’ll be playing.

RON – COMFORT ZONE

SEAN – SCRIPTWRITER

CHELTENHAM 12-10

This has a whiff of the difficult about it and when you are using races for competition purposes, you don’t want everyone bagging 10 points for nailing an odds-on favourite.

It’s seven-year-olds you want to be working with as they have won five of the last nine. In fact, it’s five of the last seven.

From a weight perspective, we want to be looking 10st 11lb – 11st 7lb….doing that would have located seven of the last nine winners for that shortlist alone.

The market has been very informative and for sure, to date, you want nowt to do with the horse trading favourite. Only three have placed but you also need to be looking away from horses trading a double figure price. Only one of the last seven winners went off bigger than 9/1.

Looking at the form figures of those arriving to run in this race in previous years, eight of the last nine winners arrived having finished 1st or 2nd last time out….the other one finished third so, arriving in form counts for plenty.

So, I want a horse trading front seven on the tissue but a single figure price. It must have won or placed last time out, be carrying more than 10st 10lb and lass than 11st 8lb.

Seven year olds preferred.

The only qualifier is the current tissue favourite FIRE DANCER.

I need it to break the bad run for favourites but I’m in!

RON – FIRE DANCER

SEAN – STAGE STAR E.W.

CHELTENHAM 1-50 (Handicap)

A 17 runner handicap and if you can smell burning, it’s just me rubbing my hands together!

I’ll produce a “Profiling-Lite” for this and we kick off with age-groupings’ and if you look away from horses aged 6, 7 or 8 you are most likely punting a loser. Eight of the last nine running’s went to horses of those ages, four of the last six going to the older horses.

In the weight ranges of the last nine winners I spy a preference for horses carrying 10st 6lb or more but I’d shy away from horses carrying more than 11st 9lb. Two have won carrying 11st 12lb but the odds are against them.

Market position looks to be very important. We had a 12/1 winner in 2017 but generally it’s likely the winner is in the front three on the tissue at the off….six of the last nine winners support that stat.

Two trainers have targeted this in the last decade, Nigel Twiston-Davies, who has sent nine for it, won with two, placed with two, and Venetia Williams, who has exactly the same record.

Twiston-Davies saddles GUY, currently around the 20/1 mark and drifting….right age though.

Venetia saddles BRAVE SEASCA, who is around 11/1 but has to carry a huge weight…12st will surely stop it here.

The three qualifiers based on stats are:

  • FUGITIV
  • IL RIDOTO
  • YOUR DARLING

The middle named is a six year old trained by Paul Nicholls who won this with FRODON when that superstar was a six year old.

If you select any of that trio for your competition entry you’ll surely get a run for your money….and some points.

For punting and Podcast purposes though, I’ll go with YOUR DARLING, who is the only one of the trio proven over this trip.

RON – YOUR DARLING – 20/80

SEAN – IL RIDOTO E.W.

CHELTENHAM 2-25

Only six going to post so everyone scores points here….if their selection completes!

The only runner I’d rule out for win purposes is old FRODON….he won this in 2019 but at the age of 11 I’ll be stunned if he repeats that.

If you want a minimum of 5 points here you select PROTEKTORAT….five of the last six favourites have won or finished second, the other ran third.

Only one of the last nine winners went in priced bigger than 7/1 and right now that means only one of two wins this tomorrow:

  • PROTEKTORAT – 13/8
  • NOBLE YEATS – 2/1

The only previous winner of this in the time span I’m looking at, to have won carrying the weight they both carry, was MANY CLOUDS so if either lives up to my billing, they are serious kit

On official figures PROTEKTORAT is 3lb the better horse tomorrow but I think he’s better suited to tracks like Haydock and Aintree and if I’m right, he’ll arrive at the final fence needing oxygen with NOBLE YEATS, who won last year’s Grand National as a novice, cantering all over him.

I have to go with the proper stayer here and will be on NOBLE YEATS.

RON – NOBLE YEATS

SEAN – PROTEKTORAT

CHELTENHAM 3-00

Can PAISLEY PARK make it four Cleeves on the bounce?

He proved last time out that even as a crusty, he still has it.

Thing is, the last 11 year old to win this was KNOCKARA BEAU @ 66/1 and as much as I love the horse, I have to swerve him for punting purposes simply based on the age stat alone.

Thing is, what do you oppose him with?

The second favourite, DASHEL DRASHER, is mixing chasing and hurdling and also arrives “old”….a 10 year old now and one that has never won beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs.

I’d not have a bet on either of the front two on the tissue but at the same time, market stats tell me that if you do not, you lose money as seven of the last nine winners were front two!

The two that were not were sitting 6th best and right now that’s the French challenger GOLD TWEET. He’s officially 25lb inferior to PAISLEY PARK and has never won over this kind of trip….what’s he doing here?

I guess it is a race I’ll not have a penny piece on but for the purposes of the Podcast, will name PAISLEY PARK as my winner because on all evidence, none of the others are good enough.

RON – PAISLEY PARK

SEAN – PAISLEY PARK

CHELTENHAM 3-35

More than anything, my concern at this point is how bad will the ground be after it has been mutilated during the course of the afternoon?

If it rides “proper” in inverted commas, then I expect the winner to be a five or six year old….the last nine have been….trading 4/1 or shorter….and in the front three on the tissue….eight of the last nine winners were.

That being the case then only one of PEMBROKE or HENRI THE SECOND can possibly win this race.

You need to be arriving having won last time out….eight of those previous nine winners had taken home first prize last time out.

If I apply the weight stats….which I will now….then I have to drop HENRI THE SECOND, as he carries 11st 10lb and the last four winners all carried 11st 5lb….which PEMBROKE does.

Also, PEMBROKE is officially the better horse by 3lb and yet gets 5lb off HENRI THE SECOND.

Has to be PEMBROKE.

RON – PEMBROKE

SEAN – PEMBROKE

DONCASTER 1-35

This could be down to five runners soon as SAINT SEGAL runs today so again, everyone should score points, if their selection completes the course.

Good horses have won this in the past, SHISHKIN in 2021 but I don’t see that kind of quality here tomorrow.

If the market stats hold up then it will be won by BOOTHILL and I’d love to see Harry’s horse do it. He is currently trading favourite and the last five wearing that mantle have taken this race. In fact seven of the last nine favourites have won this and I’ll not go all Racing TV presenter and look for smoke to blow up your backsides….BOOTHILL wins it!

RON – BOOTHILL

SEAN – BOOTHILL

DONCASTER 2-40

We’ll finish with a Novices’ staying hurdle, 10 runners going to post and it looks a belter!

Ag groupings….well, the last four winners have been aged 5, 6, 7, and 8….but six year olds look polished here, with five of the last nine winners being from that age group.

They all carry 11st tomorrow so no weight range advantages here.

Market position stats looks spot on though and only two of the last nine winners sat outside the front three on the tissue at the off.

If I adhere to the market stats….and I will…then my winner is STAY AWAY FAY.

A six year old, front three on the tissue, won last time out, as did six of the last nine winners, and the current second and third favourites representing an age group…seven….that has only produced one winner from the 18 that have represented it in the last decade.

RON – STAY AWAY FAY

SEAN – IDALKO BIHOUE E.W.

OMMS

ALL GOWRAN PARK ON FRIDAY!

1-40 – HANDS OF GOLD – 12/1 > 6/1 > 9/2 – WON 10/3

2-50 – CAREFULLY SELECTED – 9/1 > 6/1 > 4/1 – WON 9/2

3-55 – BLUEBELL DIVA – 8/1 > 9/2 > 2/1 – WON 7/2

Something for the weekend

RON – E.W. TREBLE – YOUR DARLING, FIRE DANCER, STAY AWAY FAY

SEAN – E.W. DOUBLE – SCRIPTWRITER, IDALKO BIHOUE

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