For the life of me, I cannot shake this cough off but I manfully ploughed on and hopefully you can sift out the winners and chat…I was going to edit the lot out but I’d be here until hell froze over!
My own side of the conversation below for our with Sean’s selections.
Sean’s Charity bet at Cheltenham is THYME WHITE in the Grand Annual @ 25/1….a bet has been struck for him at that price and if he comes good, all proceeds going to his chosen racing charity.
My early selections for the Championship races are:
Champion Hurdle – SHARJAH – 20/80 @ 50/1
Champion Chase – EDITEUR DU GITE – 20/80 @ 11/2
Stayers Hurdle – GOLD TWEET – 20/80 @ 10/1
Gold Cup – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS wins if he gets round but 6/4 is skinny. I’d be more interested in a 20/80 something bigger and STATTLER appeals @ 8/1. Never out of the first two over fences so far, jumps, stays and if anything happens to the favourite, he’s my play to pick up the pieces.
My Charity bet is….:
PERTEMPS FINAL – THE BOSSES OSCAR.
I thought he’d be much bigger than 8/1 but he’s down in the weights, likes Cheltenham, ran second in this race in this race in 2021, going off the 10/3 favourite and I have no doubt he’s been trained for this one race all year.
He ran at Musselburgh in a qualifier and that track would have been plenty sharp enough for him. He went off 40/1, ran a belter to finish third, which got him in the race (job done), and he’s only once been out of the first three home over hurdles, on good ground, which it seems we’ll be getting.
On to the racing:
Only six going to post and we’ll have an odds on shot here, SHE’S A SAINT, that has tried this ground twice before and failed. She was beaten at 1 / 4 on good ground back in November and you would have to be of a very forgiving nature to go in at the current 8/11.
She is the most exposed of these over hurdles, having raced six times (won two, second in the other four), last time beaten by YOU WEAR IT WELL, who trades just 11/1 to win the Mares’ Novices’ at the Festival and she is rated 6lb the best of these so should win….but then, she should have been winning when she went off at 1 / 4.
The last two winners of this went in at 40/1 and 18/1 but prior to that anything going off bigger than 4/1 failed to deliver.
If I were to bet here it would probably be a place only APPLE AWAY, the only good ground winner in the field and, she has won over the trip, which none of the rest has even attempted yet.
RON – APPLE AWAY – PLACE ONLY
SEAN – SHE’S A SAINT
A double figure field, 11 Novices heading to post, two of the pirates from Ireland and one of that pair trades the 10/3 favourite although FERONILY I on the drift, having opened 5/2 you can now have 10/3.
Last years winner was the Nicky Richards trained NELLS SON, who went in at 16/1 but that’s an anomaly. The winner of the previous seven traded front two on the tissue and right now they would be the Irish drifter, and NEMEAN LION, who opened 11/2 and is now best priced 4/1.
I am also seeing money for COLONEL HARRY 10/1 > 6/1 and on a stats based selection process I would be thinking the three horse dutch brings home the bacon.
That would be my bet.
If I was looking for that solo play to 20/80 then it has to be NEMEAN LION, who ran a belter in the Tolworth on January 7th, finishing third beaten just over four lengths. Back down in grade tomorrow and on the same kind of ground (if it remains good to soft!), that he last won on, he’s my selection.
RON – NEMEAN LION
SEAN – FERONILY
Working with races abroad is a bit like me trying to learn to speak Esperanto as most of the trainers and some of the jockeys are simply alien to me.
What I am seeing though is a trainer called S bin GHADAYER has trained four of the last six winners of this and did actually have last year winner, HYPOTHETICAL, entered up but that one has since been withdrawn. He saddles FIRST CONSTITUTION, ridden by Mikael Barzalona but that’s the 33/1 outsider and with only two of the last 10 winners going off bigger than 11/2, I’m going nowhere near it.
I want a five or six year old onside….they have won the last five between them, and seven of the last 10 running’s, trading 11/2 or shorter.
We have a very short priced favourite in the 4-y-o BENDOOG and the closest thing I can find to one fitting my stats is LAW OF PEACE. Ridden by a jockey in form Tadgh O’Shea….3-12 in the last 14 days, he’s 8/1 from 9/1 and could be a 20/80. If we see further support, he’d be even more interesting.
RON – LAW OF PEACE – 20/80
SEAN – BENDOOG
Newbury 2.45pm (handicap)
The current favourite to win this, is the one I fancy to win another race we discuss next on here, ZANZA also entered for the Kelso 3-35pm.
Only seven going to post and I’ve only eight previous running’s of this to work with but, here goes:
- You need to be arriving aged seven or eight. Six of the eight winners were and only one of the last seven winners, were not (that was a 10 year old fluke, that also ruined the weights stats)
- You need to be carrying more than 11st….that fluke carried 10st 2lb!)
- Market position and returned SP tells me I want nothing trading bigger that 8/1 but I also want nothing to do with the favourite as only a brace have won this and nothing since 2015.
Basing a potential selection on those stats I’m looking at just two horses:
- LORD BADDESLEY
They both carry the same weight as the “fluke” in 2015 but the front two on the tissue as I type carry 12st, and nothing has yet won this doing that, and they are both nine year olds!
Of the pair I’m “with” it would have to be GEMIRANDE I put up as my selection here as Venetia Williams does ok with runners in this race….won it in 2014 and has had three others placing, from the seven entries she has made.
Not a bit confident but the horse is very consistent and has no going or trip issues.
RON – GEMIRANDE – 20/80
SEAN – PAINT THE DREAM
Disappointingly down to just five runners but Cheltenham is now just around the corner and in fairness when I first looked at this race we only had 10 lining up so 50% actually arriving ain’t bad!
The one I like the look of, ZANZA, is also entered to race at Newbury but if Hobbs sends him, I’m hoping he makes it two winners from the two runners he will have sent here in the last five years to run over this chase course.
He looks well in with the favourite, LE MILOS, as he’s officially 6lb the better horse, but only has to give him 2lb.
Traditionally the winner is front three on the tissue, which brings in THE SHUNTER, the winner of the 2021 Paddy Power Plate at the Festival that year. Another Irish pirate fogging my brain, I have absolutely no idea what he’ll do tomorrow but for Podcast purposes I’ll put up ZANZA, hope he goes to Newbury instead, then I don’t have to bet here!
RON – ZANZA
SEAN – LE MILOS
We have 15 runners and £175,000 to the winner…..wouldn’t it be lovely if we had similar here every weekend.
It’s a Group 1 and the three at the head of the market are Godolphin owned, and it’s 12/1 bar their horses.
Charlie Appleby trains two of them, MASTER OF THE SEAS, the current 2/1 favourite, and VALIANT PRINCE, 4/1 > 5/1. Buick rides the first named as it obviously their first choice.
Appleby has won three of the last seven running’s of this and it looks all stacked up in favour of MASTER OF THE SEAS. Four of the last nine winners went off favourite, only a pair of the last 10 winners went off bigger than 7/1 and with Appleby on fire right now (seven winners from his last 24 runners and nine others running second or third), that might see him improve enough to beat the other Godolphin runners who, it has to be said, are officially rated higher than he is.
RON – MASTER OF THE SEAS
SEAN – REAL WORLD
A five runner Novices’ Chase to conclude affairs on the betting front…if you are betting!
The front three on the tissue all failed last time out, and have yet to be given an official handicap mark. One of them will win it though but a three horse dutch at current odds produces a loss so that’s a non-starter!
Mullins trains two of them, Elliott the other one…no shocks there, eh!
We have a pair trading 2/1, with HA D’OR ON 11/4
FLAME BEARER, the Mullins joint favourite, was beaten 63 lengths last time out, the Elliott trained joint favourite, HOLLOW GAMES, was hammered 22 lengths last time out, and HA D’OR, who went off favourite to win his race, got slam dunked by 46 lengths.
To get me to have a bet here, you would A) have to give me the money and B), hold a gun to my head and force me to hit the bet button.
Jockey bookings suggest FLAME BEARER is the Mullins preferred and as he has a 2-1 lead over Elliott based on winners in the last six years this race has been run, I’ll use that one as a Podcast selection but not a snowball in hells chance I bet here.
RON – FLAME BEARER
SEAN – HA D’OR
- THANKSFORTHEHELP – 8/1 > 7/2 – WON 9/2
- EATON COLINA – 12/1 > 10/3 – WON 3/1
- THE THAMES BOATMAN – 8/1 > 2/1 – WON 6/4
Something for the weekend
RON – NEMEAN LION / GEMIRANDE – E.W. DOUBLE
SEAN – REAL WORLD / FERONILY