ITV7 COMP, Equinox (is he all that?), and Japanese jockeys earn how much?!

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The World of Sport
The World of Sport
ITV7 COMP, Equinox (is he all that?), and Japanese jockeys earn how much?!
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Today the chat is about whether Equinox is “the best of all time”, we look at why gambles being landed are not questioned in the way they used to be, has increased prize money led to huge field at Bath and we discuss just how the league table of jockeys earnings sees Japanese jockeys riding on the crest of that wave!

Below you have the Scribblings for all races being used for the ITV7 Competition for this weekend and you can join in that game by clicking HERE

Free to play, you just need a FREE SITE MEMBERSHIP and to be logged in to make your selections.

Saturday

Haydock 1.30pm

Only six previous running’s of this race so stats are very thin on the ground. It would appear that five-year-olds are currently the go to age group as three of the six, and two of the last three running’s of this race have gone to horses of that age.

If I take that based on minimal stats I’m a few bricks short of a wall but, for Podcast purposes, we will so I have this shortlist:

  • TOO FRIENDLY
  • BIG BOY BOBBY
  • AGGAGIO

It is a bit to early to start suggesting weight ranges or anything else really matters but for sure, carrying more that 10st 13lb to victory has proven difficult, as only one has managed it.

If that trend continues then the only horse going forward is the Gary Moore trained AGGAGIO.

Currently around the 16/1 mark he fits the stat that tells me you need to have finished in the first four last time out….which would have also disqualified the other pair.

Moore has booked 5lb claimer Caollin Quinn to ride and two of the first three running’s of this went to horses ridden by a claimer, including our friend down at Harry Fry’s yard, Lorcan Murtagh, who rode WILLIAM OF ORANGE to victory for Donald McCain in 2018.

I’ll put up AGAGGIO as a place only play and we’ll see what my figures come up with tomorrow.

RON – AGGAGIO – PLACE ONLY

SEAN – AGGAGIO – E.W.

Musselburgh 1.50pm

If this was June, I would have my betting waders on, never mind my boots! I love working with Musselburgh but, it’s only April so I treat flat racing on turf as I do radio active containers….and I never touch those!

All 3-y-o’s, we’ve only had seven running’s of this race and I have not got a clue what has trained on from two, and what hasn’t. Seven return from absences of 168 days or more and if you know what they are capable of tomorrow, “you are a better man than I McDuff!!”

A race I’d never have a bet on but for sure, trends say if you are carrying less than 8st 12lb, you ain’t winning this. That rules out the two that have had recent runs and won. Hey ho!

Ok….let’s forget stats and trends and look at something that appears to be significant.

The last five running’s of this have gone to the Johnston’s, or Fahey.

They train:

  • LION OF WAR
  • FINN’S CHARM
  • GINCIDENT

The last named (Fahey), is one that fails the weight range test and with three of the last four going to the Johnston’s, let’s say one of LION OF WAR/FINN’S CHARM get this gig.

Five of the seven winners returned a single figure price and of the two Johnston runners, it all points to LION OF WAR, currently around the 5/1 mark.

He was running in Group and Listed class last season, falling short, but never beaten far in those races.

If he has trained on he’s a decent enough 20/80 shout here.

RON – LION OF WAR – 20/80

SEAN – DUMFRIES – E.W.

Musselburgh 2.25pm

A 12 runner all aged handicap and I’m loving it. I dream of working on races like this!

Only five previous running’s but they have gone to 4-y-o’s (3), and 5-y-o’s (2)….and that rules out GWEEDORE, SPIRIT OF LIGHT and VOLATILE ANALYST….if we can trust trends that are just five years old….I never have done yet.

Weight ranges tell us absolutely nothing as we have a spread between 8st 4lb and 9st 7lb…I guess, if you really must, you’d say 8st 11lb to 9st 7lb….that brings in four of those five winners.

The last two winners have returned SP’s of 10/1 & 11/1, the first three 11/2, 6/1, 6/1 but two things of note would be the fact nine of the winners to date arrived having won, or placed, last time out.

The last four winners were Northern trained.

At Musselburgh we will be looking to work with a definite draw bias, low most certainly worth a few lengths. The five winners of this were drawn 4, 3, 3, 7, 3….see what I mean.

Market position….no favourite has managed to place yet and nothing shorter than fifth in the betting has won to date.

However, our winners position on the tissue has been….3, 2, 3, 6, 7

Let’s build a horse!

I want a four or five year old, carrying between 8st 11lb and 9st 7lb, drawn low, trading first seven on the tissue, but not the favourite, that did not win or place last time out.

If this thing wins, it’s Alchemy!

THE GATEKEEPER.

Drawn six, ran fifth last time out, carrying 9st 1lb, sitting fourth best on the current tissue and drawn six….he’s also a four year old and they won this in 2018, 2019 and 2021

I’ll say a 20/80.

RON – THE GATEKEEPER – 20/80

SEAN – AUTUMN FESTIVAL

Haydock 2.40pm

Again, only six previous running’s of this race and we are looking for needles in haystacks using stats and trends but here goes nothing.

To date….nine year olds have won three of the six, including the last two so my first shortlist consists of:

  • ENQARDE
  • TIDE TIMES
  • LADRONNE

Only one winner has carried less than 11st thus far but interestingly, four of the six winners carried between 11st and 11st 3lb and only one horse again qualifies based on those limited trends….LADRONNE.

A nine-year-old carrying 11st 2lb has won this race for the last two years and this 14/1 shot arrives having placed second last time out, something those last two winners had also done.

It’s the time of the season when, if you get a run for your money you have done well, and two of the six winners so far have returned 25/1 and 18/1.

Another place only play but….

RON – LADRONNE – PLACE ONLY

SEAN – JEFFREY’S CROSS

Musselburgh 3.00pm

A 14 runner sprint handicap and I’m in seventh heaven working on this….I cannot wait to produce figures for it.

The last nine winners have been aged five or older and that rules out five of them, the nine I’m working with at this stage are:

  • MAKANAH
  • ZARZYNI
  • CAME FROM THE DARK
  • BURNING CASH
  • THE BELL CONDUCTOR
  • DIGITAL
  • MID WINSTER
  • COUNT D’ORSAY
  • WATER OF LEITH

Weight ranges….well, in the last nine years we have five carrying 8st 12lb or more.

  • MAKANAH
  • ZARZYNI
  • CAME FROM THE DARK
  • BURNING CASH
  • THE BELL CONDUCTOR
  • DIGITAL
  • MID WINSTER

We can lose another two here….you can see the full Scribblings on the website because if I kept trotting out my shortlists, we’d be here all day….and now we move on to market position.

The winners of the last nine running’s were sited 1, 6, 1, 9, 7, ,0, 1, 1, 4 and with none of the five of those winners returning 13/2 or shorter, and us having had four winning favourites, I’ll say I want a horse trading front four.

  • MAKANAH
  • ZARZYNI
  • CAME FROM THE DARK

I have a three horse dutch and I’d be more than happy to work with that.

Looking for a Podcast play I want a horse that won or placed last time out as two of the last three had done so, as had six of those nine I’m working with.

Only one qualifier and I’ll say MAKANAH 20/80

RON – MAKANAH – 20/80

SEAN – WATER OF LEITH E.W.

Haydock 3.15pm

Yep, just six previous running’s of this event, too but five have gone to six year olds and I’ll not go looking to buck that trend. We have a slightly longer shortlist here….four qualify.

  • THE CHANGING MAN
  • ITSO FURY
  • HYLAND
  • HALIFAX

Two of the first three winners carried less than 11st but the last three have gone to horses carting 11st 4lb (1), and the last two winner 11st 6lb. Again, I’d not yet all pedantic about this but I’d be looking at around those weights for my winner now.

You need to arrive having won or placed first three last time out, as four of the last five winners have done so and, going forward, we take:

  • ITSO FURY (11st 7lb)
  • HYLAND (11st 6lb)

That looks a rock solid dutch to me. However, I’ve spotted something that points me in the direction of ITSO FURY.

He is trained by Jonjo O’Neill, who has trained three of the previous six winners whereas HYLAND is trained by Nicky Henderson, who has trained three for this race previously, placed with two.

My selection is ITSO FURY and I’ll possibly have me an Exacta with HYLAND.

RON – ITSO FURY

SEAN – MY BOBBY DAZZLER

Musselburgh 3.35pm

I do not produce figures for races run in excess of 12 furlongs because there are so few of them. Happy to produce a few Scribblings here though, despite only having had seven previous running’s of it.

Six of those seven races went to horse aged 5+ and three of the last five have gone to 5-y-o’s so, I’m with them.

  • SPIRIT MIXER
  • WICKYWICKYWHEELS
  • PLEASANT MAN
  • ONESMOOTHOPERATOR

Only one winner in the last five years has carried less than 9st 2lb and so, we are down to three….and a dutch.

  • SPIRIT MIXER
  • WICKYWICKYWHEELS
  • PLEASANT MAN

Two things lead me to suggesting SPIRIT MIXER is the horse to be with here.

First, you need to be trading front six on the tissue, and second, you need to be arriving having neither won or placed last time out.

WICKYWICKYWHEELS and PLEASANT MAN are sitting seventh and eighth on the tissue as I type and even those it was 569 days ago that PLESANT MAN last ran on the flat, he won.

Three of the last four winners were also making seasonal debut and only SPIRIT MIXER does that (PLEASANT MAN has been running over hurdles). He might have a huge fitness advantage and I doubt Nicholls has sent him up on a million mile round trip for a laugh.

Must be SPIRIT MIXER for me though….20/80.

RON – SPIRIT MIXER – 20/80

SEAN – PLEASANT MAN – E.W.

PLUS….

Randwick 7.35am

Now you’ve got me riding my unicycle again, and juggling five tennis balls at the same time!

The prize money is just wowzers, nearly half a million to the winner but I’ve only got three previous running’s to work with so stats and trends simply do not exist.

That one Gai Waterhouse bought from Jeff Smith when it was trained by Ian Balding, for the price of a detached house in London….£5.4m….ALCOHOL FREE….is in here and for the life of me I’ll never understand that kind of fee for a horse that loses more than it wins.

Thankfully, it was not my money and I imagine whoever did cough up that dosh owns a lot more than a London detached.

It is, if the information I’m reading is correct, going to be an absolute bog down there.

They have had 102mm of rain in the last seven days and it is still raining. When they put the going stick in, it came out at Ludlow!

There are five runners in here that have winning form on it:

  • STATEMENT
  • ALCOHOL FREE
  • SIRILEO MISS
  • HINGED
  • TIMES SQUARE

The win on heavy by ALCOHOL FREE was our Group 1 Coronation Stakes, in 2021, when she sluiced in…pun intended….so she has her ground, and her trip.

With nothing else to go on, and the owner surely wanting a bit of that fee back, I’ll go ALCOHOL FREE, who will probably go off favourite, and have SIRILEO GIRL for the Exacta….now I suppose I have to watch it!

OMMS

  • HARSWELL DUKE – 12/1 > 9/1 – WON 10/1
  • ALEEZDANCER – 14/1 > 10/1 > 8/1 > 9/2 – STRONG – WON 9/2F
  • UMMING N’ AHING – 20/1 > 11/1 – WON 9/1

Something for the weekend

RON – ITSO FURY

SEAN – E.W. TREBLE – FAIRYHOUSE SUNDAY – NIGHT AND DAY 2-35, APPRECIATE IT 4-55, BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD – 5-30

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