I’m in pleats! At around 3 minutes 30 seconds Sean has a parcel delivered and his reaction is priceless! I’ve edited out the “silence” but left that bit in….worth listening to for that split second alone!
This week we look back at the Grand National, the protests that took place and say goodbye to Davy Russell….again!
We also discuss the eight races used for this weekends ITV7 Competition….work that one out….and below you have my side of the conversation in text form, with Sean’s selections added.
We had a six year old win this in 2019 but the other nine in the last 10 years went to a four of five year old…5-4 to the younger horses right now.
In the last seven years the winner has never been outside the front three on the tissue and as weight ranges are as useful as a chocolate teapot in races like this, the winner is one of:
- HURRICANE LANE
- MOJO STAR
The last four winners were all making seasonal debut, as are that pair, but what sways me towards MOJO STAR is the poor record of the favourite in this. Only two in the last 10 years have pulled it off and given they race off levels and MOJO STAR only has to find 2lb with the odds on HURRICANE LANE, and you can have 4/1, I’m going 20/80 Hannon’s horse.
I should point out that Ralph Beckett has an awesome record in this. He has sent three for it in the last 10 years, won with two, placed with one….he runs MAX VEGA, who won this for him last season and it’s only the fact he’s now a 6-y-o that put me off him.
RON – MOJO STAR – 20/80
SEAN – HURRICANE LANE
Seven or eight year olds are the go to age groups here, the nine running’s going to six of the younger of those pair….but it’s 2-2 in the last four years.
You definitely need to be carrying more than 11st as six of the last seven have done so, and with regards market position I’m saying a place in the front three on the tissue is no hinderance because six of the last eight winners went off fancied so….:
- OSCAR ELITE
- SAIL AWAY
Priced to dutch right now but for competition purposes I’d go with SAIL AWAY.
Trained by Dan Skelton, who won this in 2019 with MOLLY THE DOLLY, and has placed with another from just three runners he has sent for it.
Nicky Henderson won it last year with DYSART and that one produced the best weight carrying performance since 2017, going in with 11st 12lb on its back….he trains the six year old favourite CITY CHIEF this time around, who tries to become on only the second six year old to win this, and also do it with 12st up top.
I couldn’t touch it.
RON – SAIL AWAY – 20/80
SEAN – CITY CHIEF
We have 14 x 3-y-o’s, all carrying the same weight so working as I do, the only port of call I have is the market and for sure, front three on the tissue is where you need to be….seven of the last nine winners were:
- MAGICAL SUNSET
It is pure guesswork from here on in as who knows how they have trained on from their juvenile season and the first two named have only been seen once.
Since this market opened, they have been falling over themselves to get on REMARQUEE – 6/1 > 7/2F and backed at all rates down. That implies he’s been showing up at home
I cannot be with once raced horses here though….I cannot find the last one that arrived so inexperienced, and took this?
DAN’S DREAM won it in 2018 having raced just twice but three or more runs is the norm and I’ll go 20/80 MAGICAL SUNSET.
Five runs on the board, won three of them, one over course and distance, and Hannon is in amongst the winners this week.
Just a 20/80 shout but that’s my shout here.
RON – MAGICAL SUNSET – 20/80
SEAN – BRIDESTONES
NEMEAN LION has been pulled out which has meant a reformed market.
This went to Ireland last year and this years favourite also makes the trip across, COLONEL MUSTARD currently at the head of the market @ 9/2….and favourites have a great record in this, their finishing position in recent times being 2, 3, 2, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2….so that one looks a Placepot banker.
Only one horse older than seven has taken this before and most recently you’d want to have six and seven year olds carrying your hard earned.
No eight year old has won it in the last decade but we did have a 5-y-o go in at 25/1 in 2018.
I’ll keep it sensible though, work with six and seven year olds, as they have plundered four of the last five running’s and from just 23 of that age group turning up for this in the last decade, three have won, three more have placed….a great strike rate!
- ANNA BUNINA
- ROYAL MOGUL
A dutch at the current odds.
Last year winner is the first named and is currently around the 8/1 mark and John McConnell, who trains the mare, has booked Ben Harvey to claim 5lb off her back….he’s a cracking pilot….watch out for him!
I’d not want anything carrying more than 11st 6lb on my side so for win purposes the current Irish trained favourite fails on two counts….age (8), weight (11st 8lb)
The market position of the last 10 winners tells me do not go looking for anything bigger than 12/1 and that would rule out both PARISENCORE and ROYAL MOGUL, who are currently the pair holding up the market!
They also both race from out of the market…although we saw one winning at Cheltenham in midweek winning from a stone out of the handicap….welcome to end of season NH racing.
RON – ANNA BUNINA – 20/80
SEAN – RUBAUD – E.WISAAC SHELBY
The Greenham…we once had members down there having a runner in this. We had no chance of winning it, but we were there!
Again, all 3-y-o’s, all carrying the same weight so all I can do is run this through market positions and see what turns up.
Seven of the last nine winners were front two on the tissue and right now they are CHALDEAN – 11/10 > 4/6….and KNIGHT – 8/1 > 11/2….it is then 12/1 bar the two so, I’m thinking we have this.
Both course and distance winners, but if official ratings mean a thing then CHALDEAN wins this pulling a caravan. He is rated 12lb the better horse so KNIGHT has to have improved a stone, whilst CHALDEAN needs to have stood still, over the winter.
CHALDEAN wins it, if he has trained on but 4/6….I’ll just watch!
RON – CHALDEAN
SEAN – ISAAC SHELBY E.W.
This won’t take long….seven going to post, and you could only possibly work with horses aged six or seven, as they tend to clean up in this race…no six year olds this time around so our winner will be aged seven.
More important than anything else though is market position. The last three favourites have obliged and seven of the last nine winners were front two on the tissue.
That means one of BALCO COASTAL or DATSALRIGHTGINO wins this tomorrow and at the weights it simply has to be BALKO COASTAL.
They race off level weights but on official ratings the Nicky Henderson trained horses is 6lb superior and brings serious recent form into this. Beaten less than two lengths by GERRI COLOMBE in the Scilly Isles and then last of seven to STAGE STAR in the Turners at the Cheltenham Festival.
Down in grade, I’d take 2/1.
RON – BALCO COASTAL
SEAN – BALKO COASTAL
I’ll have Ratings for this tomorrow so if they marry up, we might just have a bet! We have a 14 runner handicap, being run at my favourite track and if this were May/June, the betting waders would be on, let alone the boots!
First, a list of four and five year olds…and as we have no five year olds, it’s a four year old wot wins it!:
- JIMI HENDRIX
- AUSSIE BANKER
- DAWN OF LIBERATION
- TOIMY SON
- GREAT MAX
Weight ranges next….8st 9lb and up….with 9st 4lb my upper limit. They account for seven of the last eight winners….:
- JIMI HENDRIX
- AUSSIE BANKER
Down to four.
Market position next and sitting front three on the tissue is a “must”….seven of the last eight were and now we have left:
The Haggas horse fits like the proverbial glove. He has been smashed off the boards since this market opened 4/1 > 2/1 and it is 8/1 bar.
It will be interesting to see what my Ratings come up with but if he’s not top three I’ll eat my Panama.
RON – LATTAM
SEAN – LATTAM
The Scottish Grand National and I’m thinking, like most sane folk, that MONBEG GENIUS is a “good thing” if he’s not had enough of racing this season.
His third to CORACH RAMBLER now looks pretty darned hot and if everyone has been reading their Newsletters the last three days, they know I have named one for the Punchestown Festival that finished in front of this one that day.
Age ranges are spread across the Highlands, as are weight ranges, in the last 10 years.
However, in recent times you’d be looking at this race and thinking an eight or nine year old (they’ve won four of the last five), and you’d look at the weight ranges again and maybe say 10st 6lb to 11st 3lb….market position….well, only three of the last 10 winners were inside the front five on the tissue but, two of the last five favourites have won and, the last two winners were sitting front two on the tissue.
I’m glad I do not Profile this critter!
I cannot really put much of anything together to be honest, using that lot and the only horse looking like a 20/80 to buttons is FLASH COLLONGES.
Trained by Paul Nicholls, he’s an 8-y-o…tick….carrying 10st 8lb….tick….arrives having won last time out (as have three of the last four winners)….tick….and is outside the front five on the tissue….tick
RON – FLASH COLLONGES – 20/80
SEAN – FAMOUS BRIDGE E.W.
- VELMA – 20/1 > 12/1 – WON 9/2
- EAST BANK – 25/1 > 11/1 – WON 12/1
- THE BANGER DOYLE – 14/1 > 6/1 – WON 9/2
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – LATTAM
SEAN – BRIDESTONES – 20/80