Sean and I enjoyed this one….just over an hour of racing chat and seven races dissected, that will hopefully help you win out ITV7 competition.
Below is my side of the conversation in text form for our hard of hearing members.
We have 16 novices racing for the title Champion Novice….funny, I thought that was decided last month?
Anyway, with just four previous running’s of this to work with I have no way of applying stats or trends to it as all I have right now is two of the four have been won by six year olds and one each by four and five year olds.
Three have been won by horses carrying more than 11st 6lb and, three of the previous winners went off favourite and right now, nothing would qualify based on that little lot.
Ewe have a four year old trading favourite, carrying 11st 5lb and so purely for Podcast and competition purposes, and with the favourite having a more than good record in this, I’ll put up UNDER CONTROL with absolutely zero confidence, especially as her only start on soft ground to date saw her finishing 20th of 21 in the Mares Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival.
She did win on very soft when trained in France, winning by just ½ a length at Fontainebleau but both wins this side of the channel have come on genuine good ground.
RON – UNDER CONTROL
SEAN – UNDER CONTROL
Well, everyone playing the game will score points here if their selection completes the course, just five going to post and JONBON comes out of Novice company for the first time. If official Ratings are correct….and can I refer listeners to an article on the website I posted up today about official figures….he cannot beat GREANETEEN, who is officially 9lb the better horse. In fact, the only runner in the race he should beat is the 25/1 outsider FUNABULE SIVOLA, who is 3lb his inferior.
So….why is JONBON 15/8 > 6/5 clear favourite with everything else being cut loose and drifting like barges?
I reckon both JONBON and EL FABIOLO are superior to the older two milers in training right now and I believe that if the ground is good to soft as promised….or getting quicker as the temperatures are rising right now….he’ll batter these and prove official ratings only mean so much.
Greaneteen has taken the last two running’s of this but he blows hot and cold….for instance in February he was third of four to FUNAMBULE SIVOLA, beaten 4+ lengths and yet you can have 25/1 about the winner that day, or 9/4 GREANETEEN.
I don’t want either….I think JONBON wins.
RON – JONBON
SEAN – JONBON
The “big one”….and a lovely 18 runner handicap to chew on.
Here we go….
I only want to be working with seven and eight year olds….won seven of the last eight running’s and so my first shortlist contains:
- TEA CLIPPER
- KITTY’S LIGHT
- ANNUAL INVICTUS
- REVELS HILL
- BROKEN HALO
- MUCHO MAS
All I will say from a weight range aspect is that I do not want anything carrying 11st 7lb or more….only one winner from the 22 in that weight range has succeeded.
That though, has not been lost on the trainers here as none of that shortlist get removed here.
The market position of the winner though does give us something to work with.
KITTY’S LIGHT is trading favourite after dismantling the field in last weekend Scottish National and is, officially, 6lb well in here but whilst the jolly always runs well….placed third in the last two running’s and also 3rd, 2nd and 4th in the last nine years, they do not win this race.
I would not want to be sat outside the front seven on the tissue at the off, so those sitting 2nd to 7th on the tissue now, go forward:
- REVELS HILL
I’m now down to a pair, and that’s a dutch.
The one for Podcast and competition purposes will be REVELS HILL and my reason being is, ANNSAM is already 0-7 on the going as currently described, never tried this trip before, whilst REVELS HILL is 1-2 ground, 1-2 trip.
RON – REVELS HILL
SEAN – KITTY’S LIGHT
The winner of the previous race here last year now heads the market here, HEWICK best priced 6/4, with it then 9/2 bar.
Two stats to go to war with here are, you must be trading front two on the tissue, and you must be carrying between 11st and 11st 6lb….we have had, in the last eight years, five winning favourites, and three second favourites….don’t bother looking elsewhere for your winner than HEWICK, or SOLO.
Two things now point me in the direction of SOLO.
First, this is a jumpers track and whilst HEWICK won here last season, he has now lost his jockey in two of his last three starts. He also had a bad fall at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup and was legless when he hit the deck that day. If he is over that run, he’s a beast!
He’ll also most likely win this head in chest because on official ratings (those two words again), he is 19lb the better of the two horses named for selection.
I have to go with SOLO. He beat DATSALRIGHTGINO easily at Kempton and that one franked the form winning a Grade 2 at Aintree recently. He has won or placed in six of his eight chase starts to date, showed a wind-op had done him no harm when winning that race, and this is his second start since that operation.
At 9/2 he’s a 20/80 if nothing else.
RON – SOLO – 20/80
SEAN – HEWICK
A decent enough little eight runner handicap that will be run on the patchwork quilt that is Leicester….soft ground forecast.
It is the very first running of this race so I’m going to be of no use to anyone here I’m afraid but for Podcast purposes I’ll say the short priced favourite, AL MUBHIR, also racing second time following a wind-op, is possibly….no stronger than that….the most likely winner given he is just a four year old and open to improvement.
Pure guesswork but that’s all I’ve got.
RON – AL MUBHIR
SEAN – AERION POWER E.W.
Back to the jumpers and this is a wide open novices chase. They currently go 4/1 the field.
Six and seven year olds have dominated in recent times, but with weight ranges all over the shop….everything from 10st 8lb to 11st 12lb, and everything in between winning this, I’ll just tell you that the market position of the last eight winners suggests that outside the front three on the tissue, forget it!
So, if I apply those stats/trends, call them what you will, the only solution I have is HARPERS BROOK. Currently second favourite (they have won two of the last four), carrying 11st 10lb, and he’s a seven year old, which have taken four of the last eight running’s.
He’s my pick here.
RON – HARPER’S BROOK – 20/80
SEAN – HUDSON DE GRUGY E.W.
I was hoping more than 12 would go to post here but it is what it is.
My first shortlist is those aged four and five. They have taken seven of the last nine of these and that stat looks a weapon!
- RAINBOW FIRE
- WITCH HUNTER
Six of the last eight winners carried 8st 8lb or more….so from that first list we lose:
- RAINBOW FIRE
- WITCH HUNTER
None….so it’s market next….
Eight of the last nine winners were front six on the tissue and with five of the last six winners priced 8/1 or shorter, I’ll take forward:
- RAINBOW FIRE
We have a pair left….5/1 & 7/1 I’m seeing right now and a dutch.
The one I’ll work with is RAINBOW FIRE. Two reasons….I see only one winner in the last eight years from a double figure draw and SPYCATCHER has 9st 10lb to cart and I see nothing having won this before with more than 9st 8lb up top.
RON – RAINBOW FIRE – 20/80
SEAN – SPYCATCHER – E.W.
- MAPLE JACK – 6/1 > 3/1 – WON 11/4 – VERY STRONG
- CHILLINGHAM – 6/1 > 9/4 – WON 9/4 – VERY STRONG
- SECRET HANDSHEIKH – 8/1 > 8/2 – WON 9/4 – STRONG
Something for the weekend
RON – SOLO, HARPERS BROOK, REVELS HILL – E.W TREBLE
SEAN – SPYCATCHER