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We had planned on discussing the White Paper again this week but that was binned when they announced an hour before the Podcast that nothing is going to change just yet and it’s very much a case of, “as you were!”.
Sean and I both have a similar opinion on the announcement of the Quipco 18-26 Club, that will allow people in that age range to enter a racecourse for just £10 and, we look back at the extraordinary profit Produced by the Podcast selections for April….80+pts if listeners took the prices advised.
A DRAW BIAS TO WORK WITH?
Some draw stats here that pertain only to last year but, if they have not addressed this then finding winners should be like shelling peas at Newmarket this weekend.
During racing at this meeting last season, I must have messaged you a million times regarding the draw bias I was seeing on the straight course. You might not remember because we’ve all slept since but I have a weird memory and remember telling you about a race being run in 1433 that would provide us with the winner of a race in 1435….it’s what I do.
Ok, slight exaggeration but you get my drift.
It probably doesn’t matter where AUGUSTE RODIN is drawn but it should get us “thinking”….see what I did there?
I cannot believe they will not have carried out some remedial work on the track to stop this but if they haven’t, we’ll know soon enough and can fill our boots.
The draw of the winners over the straight course of that weekend last season were 5, 4, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 4, 7, 1, 1, 3, 6, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 1 and that means close to half of all winners came from stalls 1 or 2….with anything drawn higher than seven having no chance of winning their race. No fewer than 14 of the 19 races went to horses drawn 1-2-3 and that’s something you would normally associate with Chester!
AUGUSTE RODIN has 12….a coffin if last seasons draw bias holds up…the winner of the 2000Gns last year came from stall 1.
Because we are doing this on a Thursday a tissue is hard to come by and I’d not trust it yet anyway. What I’ll do is update my text tomorrow but here I can at least help you to “build a horse” by using the stats we have available to us.
We most definitely need to work with the four year olds only. They have taken the last five of these, and seven of the last eight so my first shortlist contains:
- TEUMESSIAS FOX
- CAPITAL THEORY
- CRYSTAL DELIGHT
Got rid of seven already.
Next we go to weight ranges and seven of the last nine winners carried 9st or more and from that angle the only qualifier is:
- TEUMESSIAS FOX
I would love to have an accurate tissue in front of me because if that one is trading front two on it, I’ll be in like Flynn. Six of the last eight winners and the last three, all sat front two in the market when those stalls opened so, I wait with bated breath to see if this Balding runner is fancied.
My provisional Podcast selection is….
RON – TEUMESSIAS FOX – 20/80
SEAN – TEUMESSIAS FOX
Don’t you just love these 23 runner all aged handicaps! Gone all weak at the knees I have!
Again, from an age perspective we can quickly ascertain we want a four or five year old only onside. If the trend I’m seeing persists then it’s the turn of a 5-y-o as they alternated either side of a six year old winning in 2016…4, 5, 4, 6, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4….but I’ll not dare suggest we take that at face value….first shortlist contains:
- SAINT LAWRENCE
- LETHAL LEVI
- APOLLO ONE
- STRIKE RED
- ADMIRAL D
- GIS A SUB
- LEAP ABROAD
Ok, 13 is hardly a shortlist but we’ll be down to something manageable shortly.
Next, I’m onto the weight ranges of our winners….only one of the last nine winners carried less than 8st 12lb and that was back in 2014 and that 25/1 winner was also the longest priced in the last decade. We now remove the lighter weighted runners…8st 11lb or less….
- SAINT LAWRENCE
- LETHAL LEVI
- APOLLO ONE
- STRIKE RED
Down to nine
Between 2014 and 2017 inclusive, this went to horses trading a double figure price in four of those five running’s. However, the last four winners have returned 8/1, 9/4f, 11/4jf and 13/2 so, no longer the minefield it was.
Applying that to the current tissue I’m swiftly down to one name:
Trading the 8/1 tissue favourite as I type and….if this is still significant….drawn 2….the second, third and fourth favourites are drawn 23, 22, 21….what can possibly go wrong!
RON – TANMAWWY – 20/80
SEAN – STRIKE RED – 20/80 OR E.W.
Only one previous running of this so I’ve absolutely nothing to offer up I’m afraid. I’ll produce Ratings for this race on Saturday morning but for Podcast purposes I’ll say MAGHLAAK, simply because the favourite won it last year….and he’s trading favourite.
RON – MAGHLAAK
SEAN – HONITON E.W.
Another 17 runner handicap….you must be spitting fur down there!
Once again you can run with horses aged four of five because if an older horse wins this….we’ve had three six year olds in the last nine running’s, they will not be found by me as the last two have gone in at 20/1 & 22/1….so the younger horses make up my first shortlist:
- NOTRE BELLE BETE
- DAWN OF LIBERATION
- KING OF CONQUEST
- GREAT MAX
- JIMI HENDRIX
- DUAL IDENTITY
We have only lost four so check out the website for full profiling.
Weight ranges, as usual, come next and just as we wanted horses carrying more than 9st onside for that last race discussed, here we want horses carrying less than 9st onside.
Only two of the last nine winners managed to carry more.
- DUAL IDENTITY
Now that shifted a good few and we are now left looking at just five.
Only one winning favourite in the last decade but, the winner has been front six on the tissue in six of the last nine running’s so….:
Only one qualifier….top end of the eight stone weight range but three of the last five winners fit that profile, he’s a previous CD winner, and a realistic 20/80.
RON – MAJESTIC – 20/80
SEAN – NOTRE BELLE BETE – E.W.
Another lovely 15 runner handicap and I’m in punting heaven…well, I would have been had the last three winners of this not gone in at 14/1, 18/1 and 66/1….from an age grouping perspective…horses aged 4, 5 or 6 please….that accounts for all bar SAFE VOYAGE, a 10-y-o
Weight ranges too….all over the place and if I even attempt to try and apply market position, I’m snookered behind the black….horses positioned 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 0 have won this recently and the only live stat I have is that relating to Michael Dodds.
He has sent seven for this in the last decade, won with one, placed with two others and on Saturday he saddles NORTHERN EXPRESS, the current tissue favourite. Favourites hit the frame in this more often than not and as they go 8/1 the field right now, I’ll put that one up as a 20/80 but be sure to check out THE RATINGS on Saturday morning.
RON – NORTHERN EXPRESS – 20/80
SEAN – SKILLED WARRIOR – E.W.
There you go, a Group race for you and the big one still to come!
We have a 17 runner field here and that’s the biggest in quite a few years. I’m thinking four year olds only here. They have five of the last seven running’s of this race and last year, when a six year old won it, the 4-y-o’s came home second and third, beaten a neck and half a length so….four year olds, please!
- LIVE IN THE DREAM
- SILKY WILKIE
- GET AHEAD
Obviously weight ranges mean not a lot here with it being a Group race and I’ll head straight to market. We had a 20/1 winner of this back in 2016 but traditionally, if you are out of the front three on the tissue, you might as well stay in stables.
Eight of the last 10 winners would have produced a profit playing a front three on the tissue dutch, and the biggest priced winner after that 20/1 shot, is 8/1….MARSHA in 2018.
Any of that quintet trading a double figure price is now going to get binned:
Again we are very rapidly down to a selection and stall 1 to break from. Lovely. That’s my 20/80.
RON – MANACCAN – 20/80
SEAN – TWILIGHT CALLS
I have had two of the last three winners of this, 10/1 & 5/1….three in four years might be asking a bit much!
It’s obviously not a great race for Profiling as it’s all 3-y-o’s, racing off the same weight so all I can do is trust to a few bits and pieces…..market the first port of call.
Seven of the last 10 winners sat front four on the tissue:
- AUGUSTE RODIN
- LITTLE BIG BEAR
- ROYAL SCOTMAN
We have two trading 8/1 so we’ve got five to work with.
As you can imagine, I’ve got this massive draw bias rattling around inside my head and from three, if that bias still exists, CHALDEAN must have a great chance. The others are all breaking from a double figure draw and I don’t know about you but both LITTLE BIG BEAR and SAKHEER look like sprinters, and ROYAL SCOTSMAN is trained by a bloke that has yet to win a 2000Gns and CHALDEAN beat ROYAL SCOTSMAN in the Dewhurst last October.
I reckon it’s a match between two trainers that have won this race in the last four years and with that draw to work with I’m hoping Frankie breaks, makes all, dictating from the front, and lands my 20/80 at the very least.
RON – CHALDEAN – 20/80
SEAN – AUGUSTE RODIN
- TIMELESS PIECE – 5/1 > 11/4 > 7/4 – WON 6/1
- MUTABAAHY – 8/1 > 11/2 – WON 10/3
- KENTUCKY BLUEGRASS – 25/1 > 14/1 – WON 10/1
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – TEUMESSIAS FOX
SEAN – HONITON