The Guineas, the Oaks and Derby Trials….impressed?

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The Guineas, the Oaks and Derby Trials....impressed?
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Sean and I take a look back at the Guineas and the trials, before looking to nail listeners a profit from the seven races tomorrow that also make up the competition over at Post Racing….fancy playing?

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DERBY

They say fifth in the Guineas, first in the Derby and I thought DUBAI MILE looked like he’d at least hit the frame at Epsom….might be best at 10 furlongs like his dad but he finished third over that 12 furlongs.

I thought the Dante was won by the best horse on that day, THE FOXES travelled great and won well but the horse to take from it was PASSENGER, who dead heated for third after he was continually blocked off in his run. He’ll reverse that form and looks a Derby horse to me.

OAKS

SAVETHELASTDANCE was mighty impressive at Chester but I’m always suspicious of the form when something wins a race like that by 20+ lengths. The way she quickened though was amazing, especially on the ground they had that day. She looked to be struggling at one point but as soon as they hit the straight….off she whizzed!

SOUL SISTER was also impressive at York the other day and my feeling is one of that pair wins the Oaks, most likely Aiden’s horse if that form is right. That’s something you lonely really find out next time they run.

Races – ITV 7 in order

1.50pm Newbury

Down to seven runners now and I’ll only be a second boxing this off.

All 3-y-o’s carrying 9st 2lb bar one, RUMSTAR, who has a 5lb pattern race penalty, which most likely nails him to the floor tomorrow.

I can only see what has happened on the tissue in the last 10 years our winner has sat 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 9, 4, 1, 2, 1 in the market so if you look away from the front pair in tomorrow’s market, you most likely bet a loser.

The pair to work with are:

  • NOBLE STYLE
  • AESOP’S FABLES

The first named ran a good sixth in the Guineas, beaten less than six lengths and he will be much better suited to the quicker ground tomorrow.

That last comment applies to AESOP’S FABLES, who ran second on heavy ground, on seasonal debut last month.

That though was Listed company and with NOBLE STYLE dropping from Group 1 to Listed for this race, and rated 7lb superior to the Irish runner, he has to be my pick to land the odds on.

RON – NOBLE STYLE

SEAN – NOBLE STYLE

2.05pm Newmarket

Now we have 11 3-y-o’s in a Class 4 Handicap to try and work out….oh joy!

I only have seven previous running’s to try and knit a jumper, too so don’t expect this to have sleeves.

Obviously a 3-y-o wins it but from a weight range perspective, the only critter you would rule out is the 33/1 outsider YELLOW LION.

One of the other 10 wins it then!

Market position of our seven winners to date read: 3, 6, 3, 1, 1, 1, 7….so I’ll go out on a limb and say we want one of the front three on the tissue working for us.

  • CEANNA
  • ACOTANGO
  • TOTNES

A single figure draw is a must have….and they all have it. Arriving for this having finished in the first three last time out is another must have….and yep, they all have it.

However, only one of the last five winners arrived having won last time out and so, simply because I have to provide a Podcast solution, I’m going to say 20/80 ACOTANGO.

The other two won and whilst I hate punting maidens….they keep getting beaten for a reason….this one has only had four runs on turf and will be ridden by Richard Kingscote, who has ridden her twice, won on the all weather and placed second on him at Haydock last month.

RON – ACOTANGO – 20/80

SEAN – TRUE STATESMAN E.W

2.25pm Newbury

Just seven going to post here, too….everyone playing the competition must be landing points in the first two races at Newbury!

Four and five year olds have won the last seven running’s of this and tomorrow that will be eight, as all seven fit the age grouping required.

In the last seven years we have has five winning favourites, four of which have gone off odds on and in the last decade only one winner has returned bigger than 9/2 so one of YIBIR or HASKOY must be winning this tomorrow….it’s 7/1 bar that pair right now.

Tomorrow YIBIR has to give the filly 3lb but is officially rated 10lb superior to the Beckett trained horse. She wears a tongue tie first time tomorrow but unless that improves her by around a stone, we have another winning favourite here tomorrow. YIBIR for me.

RON – YIBIR

SEAN – YIBIR

2.40pm Newmarket

Another all 3-y-o event….in my other world I’d not even look at such races so damn your eyes ITV!

Trends do look like they might work though and if I’m right, this will take just a minute more to solve.

I want only horses carrying 9st or more. They have won the last four of these and six of the nine renewals I’m working with.

Prior to 2017, the winner could be any price, the 2016 winner returned 22/1….but since then the winner has sat front two on the tissue, nothing bigger than 5/1.

The only selection I can make is REVENITE. Currently 10/3 second favourite behind EMINENCY….who fails by 2lb to be my selection….dutch is you’re out to make a profit…..he has thrived since being gelded, has won his last two and represents Roger Varian who is, in fact, the last trainer to win this with one carrying less than 9st!

He’s running a superb 60% RTF%age right now and we’ll get a run for our money.

RON – REVENITE

SEAN – WASHINGTON HEIGHTS E.W.

3.00pm Newbury

I was really looking forward to working this race, even if it is a bunch of 3-y-o’s, several of which will be making handicap debut.

Obviously a 3-y-o wins it.

I’m going to set my weight range at 8st 10lb – 9st 5lb….they would account for seven of the last nine winners.

DESERT HERO will most likely go off favourite tomorrow and that’s a great spot to have on the tissue as the favourites have finished 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 2, 1, 1 so an absolute Placepot banker.

The winners of those nine races sat 6, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 6, 1, 1 so outside the front six means you ain’t winning this.

Right now they are:

  • DESERT HERO
  • EXOPLANET
  • BERTINELLI
  • ROYAL RHYTME
  • LIEBER POWER
  • BOLD ACT

Looking back at that weight range only BOLD ACT, on 9st 9lb, gets hooked!

  • DESERT HERO
  • EXOPLANET
  • BERTINELLI
  • ROYAL RHYTME
  • LIEBER POWER

I’m thinking a single figure draw might prove best as the last nine winners have been drawn 2, 7, 3, 3, 1, 3, 14, 8, 12 and if I’m right, only DESERT HERO and LIEBER POWER come through that sift.

Currently 9/2 & 7/1….that’s a dutch.

Both fit the “only had three runs” stat…four of the last five winners did, too.

The last four winners had all made seasonal debut before turning up here and of that pair the only one doing so….and my 20/80 for Podcast purposes, is LIEBER POWER.

This one had opened 14/1 and is now 7/1 so someone else fancies it, too!

RON – LIEBER POWER – 20/80

SEAN – LOYAL TOUCH – E.W.

3.15pm Newmarket

The swines changed the running order here and instead of an all aged handicap (now the 3-50pm race), we have another all 3-y-o rat of a thing to try and solve.

They have done this because the race we should be discussing is now down to just seven runners and I’ve no chance as this is the first running of this race, so not a scooby doo what’s going to happen as I need trends!

The front two on the tissue represent Godolphin but both arrive as beaten favourites….as do three of the front four on the current tissue.

The only one not a BF is POWERDRESS. She won here on debut as a juvenile and this will be just her fourth run, and tomorrow she drops from Group 1 to handicaps following her 51 length last of 20 in the 1000Gns.

Prior to that run she had finished a good third to MAJESTIC PRIDE in a Class 2 Conditions Stakes and what catches my eye is, the fourth horse in that race, HI ROYAL, then ran a huge race in the 2000Gns, finishing second @ 125/1.

POWERDRESS should be good enough to at least place here, if she hasn’t actually gone backwards.

Purely….and I mean purely, for Podcast purposes, POWERDRESS 20/80 for me.

RON – POWERDRESS – 20/80

SEAN – WAR GAME – E.W

3.35pm Newbury

Might be a Group 1 in “fact” but it doesn’t have the feel of one this season…..a very iffy bunch and we’ve certainly no BAAED or PALACE PIER in here tomorrow.

The tissue favourite is MODERN GAMES and he has lost as many races as he has won. His current tissue price is also longer than six of the last nine winners returned and only a fraction shorter that two others.

On official ratings we have four of the front six on the tissue within a couple of lbs of each other, with the filly LAUREL sitting second favourite on 7/2, having opened 8/1.

She is officially rated 9lb shy of MODERN GAMES and will have to be as good as RHDODENDRON, the last filly to win this in 2018, to beat the boys.

Gosden and Dettori have been working well together this week and I’ll make her my 20/80 to do it. I just don’t trust the lads to turn up I’m afraid.

RON – LAUREL – 20/80

SEAN – JADOOMI – E.W.

OMMS

Three of the best OMMS from the week just gone but there were many more!

  • REGIONAL – 14/1 > 8/1 > 7/1 – WON 5/1
  • MON NA SLIEVE – 16/1 > 8/1 – WON 17/2
  • CROUPIER – 20/1 > 10/1 > 9/1 – WON 7/1

Something for the weekend

RON – E.W. TREBLE

  • ACOTANGO
  • LIEBER POWER
  • LAUREL

SEAN – E.W. DOUBLE

  • WAR GAME
  • JADOOMI
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