This week Sean and I look back at the Dash fiasco, the Derby….how good (or otherwise), was it, ans we each make a selection for the five days of racing at Royal Ascot next week, before disectinf the races being used for the ITV7 and our own competition purposes.
ROYAL ASCOT PICKS
- TUESDAY – BUCKAROO (WOLFERTON)
- WEDNESDAY – LUXEMBOURG (PRINCE OF WALES)
- THURSDAY – ELITE STATUS (NORFOLK)
- FRIDAY – TAHIYRA (CORONATION STAKES
- SATURDAY – HUKUM (HARDWICKE)
- TUESDAY – NATIVE TRAIL (QUEEN ANNE)
- WEDNESDAY – ADAYAR (PRINCE OF WALES)
- THURSDAY – AZAZAT (RIBBLESDALE)
- FRIDAY – TAHIYRA (CORONATION STAKES)
- SATURDAY – WELLINGTON (KING STAND)
It’s a good job we only do the Podcast for a laugh because I laughed out loud when I saw this. An all lady riders race, for amateurs. It is going to either kill or cure your ITV 7 entry, if you play that bet.
Last years winner returned 33/1, in 2018 it was 20/1, and in between those two, they came home 5/1 and 10/3….and all I can tell you is, the winner will be in the front nine on the tissue.
Age groups? They do not exist here. Winners aged 11 ,4 ,5 ,4 ,9, 4, 3, 9, 5 in the last nine years.
Seven have carried 9st 12lb or more but that rules out just five runners and one of those is the current second favourite, BOLLIN MARGARET.
If ever a race was for PODCAST PURPOSES ONLY, this is it and I am going to suggest DREAM HARDER might run well. I say might because I don’t know!
The horse is ridden by last years winning rider, who has had 16 rides in the following 369 days and not won.
Trained by Ian Williams, who provided Alice with the winning ride last year, it could be (and this is probably wishful thinking), he has targeted this race for horse and rider. The horse goes well for a lady rider and has been ridden by either Saffie Osbourne or Nicola Currie in nine of his 21 career starts….but he’s a maiden on turf.
I’m about to lose the will to live.
RON – DREAM HARDER – 20/80
SEAN – SARATOGA GOLD – E.W.
A lovely 13 runner all aged handicap and I should be skipping through hoops. So why aren’t I? Well, we have a 3-y-o trading favourite, that has raced just four times, and another fourth favourite, having seen turf just twice.
All I can do is follow the path and see where it leads me.
First, no three year old has yet won this, and 11 have tried. Four year olds fit best as they have delivered punters six winners in the last nine seasons this has been run, so my first shortlist comprises:
- AUTUMN FESTIVAL
- BALTIMORE BOY
- NEW DIMENSION
Nothing has carried less than 9st 5lb in the last decade and unsurprisingly, they all carry more so, all make that sift.
Market position then eh!
In the last 10 years, if you were not sitting front three on the tissue when the tapes went up, then you were not winning this thing. In fact, if anything traded bigger than 11/2 in that span of time, you were not taking home first prize.
The only qualifier from that quartet is NEW DIMENSION and he will become the first winner to take this on seasonal debut since BASEM in 2013.
It is the week before Royal ASCOT….we won’t be dealing with the better horses and this weekend, of all weekends, should be a time for low staking. I’ll go 20/80 NEW DIMENSION.
RON – NEW DIMENSION – 20/80
SEAN – NEW DIMENSION
RON – LIAMARTY DREAMS
SEAN – WILD LION
Another all 3-y-o handicap but just nine runners going to post and, plenty of back history.
It won’t take me a minute to solve this as it’s clear we need to be working with the lads here….they lead the girls 7-3 in the last 10 years and if you are not front three on the tissue then you have a snowball in hells chance of winning, just two outside the leading trio in the market winning this before.
Right now it’s 16/1 bar three so that looks to be rock solid and so one of GREAT STATE, PERDIKA or TAJALLA wins this.
My eyes keep getting drawn to TAJALLA. Two runs, two wins and his trainer, Roger Varian, is running a very decent 56% RTF figure right now. More importantly, perhaps, is the fact he has trained the winner of this twice, from just four entries.
Not tons to go on but it’s better than nowt and I’ll be rowing in with TAJALLA.
RON – TAJALLA
SEAN – GREAT STATE
Just seven runners here, over a trip only two of them have scored over previously….QUICKTHORN and ROBERTO ESCOBAR
QUICKTHORN is 0-2 on the going as currently described and yet trades much shorter than ROBERTO ESCOBAR, who is not only 1-1 on the ground but also a course and distance winner (this race in 2021).
I know that the weights massively favour QUICKTHORN of the pair but if you need slower ground to produce that better official rating, I’d be very wary of taking 7/4.
Age stats massively favour the older horses, four year olds winning just three in the last decade and only on in the last five years. That gives ISRAR a mountain to climb at his first try over this trip and he again would seem to prefer slower ground.
He’s very lightly raced and hard to get a handle on but of the three named….and market positions say one of the front three wins this (eight of the last 10), I’m going 20/80 ROBERTO ESCOBAR @ 5/1
RON – ROBERTO ESCOBAR
SEAN – ISRAR
A Class 2, all 3-y-o Handicap that has only seen four previous running’s and I have absolutely no solid stats/trends with which to melt this down to a single selection….which I have to do, for Podcast purposes.
Chester is obviously famous for it’s definite draw bias and I recall going racing there with the lads from my post office depot, telling them all they needed to do was concentrate on stalls 1-2-3, do not worry about the price they were, just pick one.
All six races…we still only had six races back then….were won by horses from those three stalls and at the end of racing a few came up and stuffed money into my jacket pocket. We cleaned up.
With that in mind and not a lot else to say about it, I’ll look at horses drawn 1-2-3:
- SOPHIA’S STARLIGHT
Now, none of the winners to date has returned bigger than 6/1 and the only qualifier from that trio is SOPHIA’S DELIGHT.
Yet to finish out of the first three this season but up massively in grade and truth be told, I would not bet here if you threated to waterboard me!
RON – SOPHIA’S DELIGHT – 20/80
SEAN – MONTE LINAS – E.W.
Tom Cruise turned this one down….a 22 runner Handicap for 3-y-o’s and a pair of the last five winners returning 25/1 and 20/1….here goes!
Obviously, a 3-y-o wins it.
In recent years horses carrying 9st or more have been most successful, with four winners in the last six years but for sure, I’d not let anyone be put off by horses carrying less….they have won five of the last 10.
Six of the last 10 winners were front five on the tissue but no favourite has won this since BODY AND SOUL in 2013 and only one has placed since.
The horses trading 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th favourite right now are:
- QUINTUS ARRIUS
- WASHINGTON HEIGHTS
- CATCH THE PADDY
I’m going to be pedantic with my weight range and rule out QUINTUS ARRIUS, as he carries just 8st 10lb and his trainer, Kevin Ryan, has tried to win this with 11 entries in the last decade, placed with just one.
Six of the last 10 winners arrived having neither won or placed last time out and of the three left to pick from, the only horse coming though is RABAAH.
He’s around the 11/1 mark right now, drawn in stall seven, which looks fine given five of the last six winners were drawn 1-7….his trainer has sent five for this previously, placed with two, not yet won one. If you are looking for the target trainer here, it’s Tim Easterby….12 entries, three winners, one placed….he trains SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE (16/1) and NORTHCLIFF (33/1)
It is Mission Impossible but I’ll put up RABAAH as a 20/80
Ron – RABAAH – 20/80
SEAN – GARNER – E.W
- FINBAR’S LAD – 16/1 > 8/1 – WON 12/1
- RICH GLORY – 11/8 > 8/1 – WON 8/1
- PUROSANGUE – 8/1 > 7/2 – WON 5/1
Something for the weekend
RON – E.W. DOUBLE – NEW DIMENSION AND TAJALLA
SEAN – 2 X E.W. SINGLE & AN E.W. DOUBLE – NEW DIMENSION, MONTE LINAS