Racing League, jailed trainer, the drop in trainer numbers plus 7 winners tomorrow!

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The World of Sport
The World of Sport
Racing League, jailed trainer, the drop in trainer numbers plus 7 winners tomorrow!
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Plenty of racing chat in our first Podcast in July. We discuss the Racing League, have a chat about banned jockeys and jailed trainers, look at the drop in trainers numbers, chat about the Betfair now being beaten by industry SP when horses trade short and win and then comes the important thing…tomorrows winners!

The text of my side of the conversation below, for our hard of hearing members and visitors….and the lack of “match practice at the end shows as I lose control of my buttons!….should give you a laugh, if nothing else!

1.50pm Ascot

Well, this’ll be won by a 2-y-o, carrying 9st 2lb….I can say that with certainty because all 11 going to post are, and do.

The only place I can go looking for my winner is the market and the last 10 winners were to be found in the first four on the tissue, in eight of them so that’s not a bad place to start….first shortlist:

  • PRETTY CRYSTAL
  • SOPRANO
  • SYMBOLOGY
  • DAZZLING STAR

I’ll be surprised if they let SPORANO race again tomorrow as she has a hard race two days ago and with seven of the last 10 winners starting shorter than 11/2 right now, I’m looking to one of PRETTY CRYSTAL/SYMBOLOGY.

Currently 7/2 co- favourite with SOPRANO, and DAZZLING STAR on 9/1….and my way of splitting the pair I like right now is to take the more experienced horse as four of the last five winners arrived having raced more than once.

Not a race I’ve enjoyed working on really but hopefully a 20/80 landed.

RON – PRETTY CRYSTAL – 20/80

SEAN – DAZZLING STAR – 20/80 / E.W.

2.05pm York

I’m not going to waste much time on this palaver. Only five previous running’s, three won by Paul Midgley trained horses and he currently has the following running for him:

  • STRONG JOHNSON
  • GLORY FIGHTER
  • PROSPECT
  • MAJESKI MAN
  • LEODIS DREAM
  • VAN GERWEN

Nearly a third of the field from one yard….a race I’d never punt in a million years.

One for the Podcast? Well, I want a horse drawn low….no higher than eight and the only one of those qualifying is STRONG JOHNSON.

If your mad enough to bet here, have a small 20/80.

RON – STRONG JOHNSON – 20/80

SEAN – SOUL SEEKER – E.W.

2.25pm Ascot

This is funny!

I see the last 10 running’s of this race have gone to horses aged three, or four….so I’m seeing nine of the 10 qualify….the only horse that doesn’t is RANDOM HARVEST….and he has been smashed off the boards since this market opened….8/1 > 11/4

He is trained by Ed Walker, who has only sent one for this race previously, and it won….DREAMLOPER in 2021.

So, if he wins, I lose because I must work how I work, and trust to the runes.

Ok, a three- or four-year-old wins it. Now, if I apply that stat solidly, I have to select a three year old because they have won six of the last 10 of these.

  • CADEAU BELLE
  • ROSE PRICK
  • MYSTERIOUS LOVE
  • SEA OF THIEVEES
  • THORNBROOK
  • VETIVER

Now I hit a bit of a stumbling block as the market has been suspended for all bar the first two named. I had seen VETIVER greyed out as a non-runner, but she is now “bold” again so I have no idea what is going on.

I’ll work as if they all race.

I see no real weight range having benefitted previously six carrying less than 9st, four, including three of the last five winners, all carrying more than 9st so I need the market to put me wise now.

Only two winning favourites but none since 2015. Since then three winners at double figure prices, four returning 8/1, 4/1, 13/2 and 10/3….lets say we want a horse trading a single figure price but, not the favourite….which is a 4-y-o anyway.

  • THORNBROOK
  • VETIVER

Now you have a dutch, if both go to post….but I’m pretty sure VETIVER was a non-runner so it will be THORNBROOK….but even she is suspended on the tissue right now.

I’ve no idea what is going on!

RON – THORNBROOK – 20/80

SEAN – AMEYNAH

2.40pm York

A 15 runner speed test and, they’ll go like stink.

I’m looking for horses aged older than four here. The last 4-y-o to win was FLYING PURSUIT in 2017 and it’s funny but, between 2013 – 2015 inclusive, southern based trainers came up to take this with the favourite….it’s like they’ve been “warned off”….the last seven running’s all going to a Yorkshire based trainer.

My first shortlist is:

  • SUMMERGHAND
  • MONDAMMEJ
  • MAGICAL SPIRIT
  • HYPERFOCUS
  • IT JUST TAKES TIME
  • ZARZYNI
  • ABERAMA GOLD
  • ABDUCTION
  • INTERNATIONAL GIRL
  • MUSIC SOCIETY

I do not want a horse onside carrying less than 9st as only three of the last 10 have done it….and two of them carried 8st 13lb so….:

  • SUMMERGHAND
  • MONDAMMEJ
  • MAGICAL SPIRIT
  • HYPERFOCUS
  • IT JUST TAKES TIME
  • ZARZYNI
  • ABERAMA GOLD

Three gone.

Now we check to see what the market has up it’s sleeve. The winner has been front six on the tissue in eight running’s this decade so I’ll run with that:

  • SUMMERGHAND
  • MONDAMMEJ
  • IT JUST TAKES TIME
  • ABERAMA GOLD

Down to four.

Six of the last 10 winners were drawn middle to high….stalls 6-16 producing six of the last 10 winners, the last five winners drawn 6, 9, 14, 12, 6….so the best drawn of those historically are:

  • IT JUST TAKES TIME (10)
  • ABERAMA GOLD (12)

A nice two horse dutch but the one I’ll select for Podcast purposes is ABERAMA GOLD. Now trained by David O’Meara since Dalgleish packed up, he has conditions to suit (2-6 ground), a lovely draw and Mark Winn taking 3lb off.

RON – ABERAMA GOLD – 20/80

SEAN – HYPERFOCUS – E.W.

3.00pm Ascot

Have you ever wished the ground would opened up and swallow you?

My stats and trends here are based primarily on the ground riding quickish….four of the last five years it has been run on good to firm, once on good….currently, it’s soft.

I’ll try….that’s all I can do.

Eight of the last 10 running’s have gone to horses aged four, or five:

  • TACARIB BAY
  • RHYTHM MASTER
  • MONTASSIB
  • VAFORTINO
  • NORTHERN EXPRESS
  • LIR SPECIALE
  • BARADAR
  • STAR OF ORION
  • SPANGLED MAC
  • POPMASTER
  • FOOLS RUSH IN
  • HICKORY
  • MITROSONFIRE
  • MISTER BLUEBIRD

I ‘ve short list of 14 so if anyone listening wants to read the full Profiling just read the text on the Podcast page.

Weight ranges next and eight of those last 10 winners carried more than 8st 10lb so we’ll cull those that do not:

  • TACARIB BAY
  • RHYTHM MASTER
  • MONTASSIB
  • VAFORTINO
  • NORTHERN EXPRESS
  • LIR SPECIALE
  • BARADAR
  • STAR OF ORION
  • SPANGLED MAC
  • POPMASTER

That got rid of four. Nothing has carried more than 9st 7lb in that time period so we lose TACARIB BAY HERE….9ST 8LB….I can be pedantic!

  • RHYTHM MASTER
  • MONTASSIB
  • VAFORTINO
  • NORTHERN EXPRESS
  • LIR SPECIALE
  • BARADAR
  • STAR OF ORION
  • SPANGLED MAC
  • POPMASTER

Down to nine and market position next. We saw winners at 33/1 in both 2013 and 2014, a 50/1 winner in 2017 and a 20/1 winner in 2018 but generally and six of the last eight winners support this, you need to be trading a single figure price and so anything bigger than 9/1 in that last shortlist goes now:

  • VAFORTINO – 9/1
  • BARADAR – 13/2
  • SPANGLED MAC – 8/1

That’s my dutch.

In six of the last 10 running’s our winner has come from a draw higher than 14 and a double figure draw in eight of those races so looking for one, it’s BARADAR, who breaks from stall 24 and he’ll go on the ground….2-5 on soft….it just might be Ascot is his nemesis as he’s 0-3 here….but always runs well in these big field handicaps….he’s my 20/80.

RON  – BARADAR – 20/80

SEAN – BIGGLES

3.15pm York

Only five runners…racing for £71k….usually goes to horses aged five or older, which rules out the favourite tomorrow. There have only been three of those winning this in the last 10 years anyway and the last was back in 2017.

I have a pair to work with, ROYAL CHAMPION and MASHHOOR and as horses shorter than 5/1 have struggled in this race recently, and purely for Podcast purposes, I’ll put up Johnny Murtagh’s MASHHOOR….arrives having rattled up a Curragh hat-trick and it could be that now he is a fully mature 5-y-o, he has “found himself”….we’ll see.

RON – MASHHOOR

SEAN – MY PROSPERO

3.40pm Ascot

A cracking good race, which it should be for the prize money on offer.

This will not take me long to box off as it’s a Group 1 and I’ll not be trying to make a silk purse from a sow’s ear.

I’m not keen on 3-y-o’s taking on their elders at this level just yet and the fact only three 3-y-o’s in the last decade have pulled this off, makes me look to older horses for my first short list.

  • BOLSHOI BALLET
  • DEAUVILLE LEGEND
  • HAMISH
  • HULUM
  • LUXEMBOURG
  • P OINT LONSDALE
  • PYLEDRIVER
  • WESTOVER
  • EMILY UPJOHN

No point discussing weight ranges so to market next and, whilst we saw PYLDRIVER winning this @ 18/1 last year, prior to that the winner had sat front four on the tissue in all nine….so:

  • HULUM
  • EMILY UPJOHN

One of that pair will hopefully prove better than the 3-y-o’s and if that is to be the case, I must come down (reluctantly), on the side of EMILY UPJOHN.  The reason for that is HUKUM is a six-year-old and whilst I think he’s a proper serious racehorse, and my “guts” idea of the winner, four year olds have a better record and, she is trained by Gosden, who has saddled four of the last nine winners of this.

Not a bit confident but it’s EMILY UPJOHN for me, 20/80.

RON – EMILY UPJOHN – 20/80

SEAN – KING OF STEEL

OMMS

  • SAYF AL DALWA – 10/1 > 5/1 – WON 4/1F
  • TEMPER TRAP – 14/1 > 13/2  – WON 10/1
  • G’DAY AUSSIE – 25/1 > 14/1 – WON 9/1

Something for the weekend

RON – EMILY UPJOHN – 20/80SEAN – DAZZLING STAR – E.W.

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