Gambling Commission, What’s The Answer, winners @ 25/1, 16/1 & 9/1 last time!

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The World of Sport
The World of Sport
Gambling Commission, What's The Answer, winners @ 25/1, 16/1 & 9/1 last time!
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Lousy racing this week because of the Shergar Cup and we’ve been left with no meat on the bones at all.

All we can do is try to find winners like those we did last time out but I very much doubt it will happen.

They divided a race after I had worked on it, three I have no back history for and so I’m flying a kite.

My side of the racing conversation below….best of luck!

2.25pm Haydock

It was 2019 the last time we had 16 going to post for this, the last two running’s producing seven runner races. So, four places for the 20/80 players!

This has become a goldmine for the 3-y-o’s. They have won the last three, and four of the last six. I certainly wouldn’t want anything older than four on my mind because between 2013 and 2018 inclusive, this race was mined by those from that age group, five winners from that six so, let’s run up a shortlist of 3-y-o’s and see how we get on:

  • ISLE OF JURA
  • POET MASTER
  • SUDDEN AMBUSH
  • BODORGAN
  • KATHAB
  • FREEDOM DAY

Looking at the weight ranges and with seven of the last 10 winners carrying between 9st and 9st 6lb, any of that lot above outside than banding gets removed now:

  • POET MASTER
  • SUDDEN AMBUSH

Down to a pair….and a dutch!

Market positions next and with nine of the last 10 winners in the front four on the tissue at the off I have to post up POET MASTER as my selection here. He currently trades the 4/1f, whilst SUDDEN AMBUSH is 14/1. The biggest priced winner in the last decade was 8/1.

RON – POET MASTER

SEAN – ISLE OF JURA

3.05pm Newmarket

The problem with the racing tomorrow is that I have been reduced to selecting races away from Ascot (Shergar Cup nonsense), and when looking for big field races for competition purposes, have found myself working with races that have not been run before. This is the first of them and I’m snookered.

I’m a stats/trends man and if I have none, I’m trusting to the markets on the day to show me a way across the minefield.

This is a Class 5 race, run over 12 furlongs and right now the only thing I can tell you is that in such races run at this track, Charlie Johnston has run 57 horses in Class 5, 12-furlong races, won with nine of them and has a whopping great +33.75pts level stake profit in them.

Based on that stat I can say I find EDGE OF DARKNESS very, very interesting and it will be interesting to see what the market tells us in the morning.

RON – EDGE OF DARKNESS

SEAN – EDGE OF DARKNESS

2-38PM – 3.13pm Redcar

More snookers required I’m afraid as this is the very first running of this race and as with that last race all I can refer to is trainer’s stats in such races being run there and nowt for you I’m afraid.

I’ve looked at the two course and distance winners, YOUNG FIRE and GIVEIT SOME TEDDY….the first named is 0-9 on the going they have there right now, GIVE IT SOME TEDDY is 0-7….nothing in this race has won on the going as it is currently described and so unless the players get stuck into to something tomorrow, this Class 4 is a no play race for me. For competition purposes I’d maybe look to STAR PLAYER to snaffle some place points as he has raced eight times on turf, won two, placed in four.

RON – 2-38PM – STAR PLAYER – PLACE ONLY

SEAN – 3-13PM – SHALADAR – E.W.

4.15pm Newmarket

Now I’m cooking on gas!

An 11 runner, Class 2 Handicap, my stuff of dreams!

Eight of the last 10 winners were aged three, or four….so that’s where I go for my first shortlist:

  • LETHAL LEVI
  • ANOTHER INVESTMENT
  • MASTER RICHARD
  • SIR WINSTON
  • URBAN SPRAWL
  • THUNDER BALL
  • PARLANDO

From the weight range perspective, I’m looking 9st 2lb – 9st 7lb as the last four winners and six of the last nine winners would have been found looking only at that weight range:

  • ANOTHER INVESTMENT
  • MASTER RICHARD
  • SIR WINSTON
  • URBAN SPRAWL
  • THUNDER BALL

Down to five.

Market position next and as I type, I have no tissue but for certain you need to be front two in the market as the traps open and if trading favourite, all the better as we’ve had five winning favourites in the last nine years, with a pair of second favourites thrown in for good measure.

  • SIR WINSTON – 4/1
  • URBAN SPRAWL – 5/1

HAS TO BE SIR WINSTON

RON – SIR WINSTON

SEAN – PARLANDO – E.W.

5.20pm Haydock

I’m snookered again. I have no previous running’s of this race to produce a Profiling and so cannot possibly post up a play.

All I have with regards stats for a race like this, run at Haydock, is that Julie Camacho has run 60 horses in Class 5, seven furlong handicaps here, produced 12 winners and a level point win profit of +7.33pts.

She has a pair in here. Course and distance winner OSCAR’S SISTER, racing first time following a wind-op, and ZAPPHIRE, who will be making handicap debut in this race.

Maybe a tuppeny dutch that pair? I’ll not be betting unless we have an OMM….and we will not know about that until tomorrow!

RON – NO SELECTION

SEAN – GLORY SKY – E.W. (9/2 OR BIGGER)

5-50

As above

RON – FINBAR’S LAD

SEAN – UGO GREGORY

8.07pm Ayr

We are keeping them up late for this final leg of the competition but that’s all the fault of that Sherbet Cup bilge….back to normal next time!

First off I’ll tell you that in the last decade we have seen winners aged 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8….the last five winners have been aged 3, 4, 5, 6, 7….so we have no dominate age grouping.

Weight ranges hopefully offer us a way in. Difficult to nail down an “absolute” positive because the winners of the last nine (we had no running in 2020), have carried:

  • 9st 4lb
  • 9st 7lb
  • 8st 10lb
  • 9st 3lb
  • 8st 7lb
  • 8st 8lb
  • 9st 11lb
  • 8st 12lb
  • 9st 12lb

If I agree to accept that 8st 10lb – 9st 7lb is “best”….might not be….because the last four winners were, and they account for 50+% of the winners I’m looking at, then my first shortlist comprises:

  • SLIPPIN JIMMY
  • YEEEAAH
  • CUBAN ROCK

Eight of the last nine winners sat front five on the tissue and last year we had the first winning favourite in the last 10 years. I have no tissue right now so I’m thinking we’ll call that a dutch.

However, I’m liking SLIPPIN JIMMY for one extremely good reason. He is trained by Richard Fahey and he, in the last 10 years, has sent four for this race, won with one, placed with three.

For that reason alone, I will put him up as my selection but I really do need to see my figures and a market before even thinking about a bet.

RON – SLIPPIN JIMMY – 20/80

SEAN – FIRST GREYED

OMMS

All from Wednesday, which was the first day in what seems like years since we had wall to wall sunshine!

  • FAUSTUS – 14/1 > 9/1 – WON 11/2
  • AJWADI – 10/1 > 15/2 – WON 6/1
  • BETWEEN THE COVER – 7/1 > 11/4 – WON 7/4F

Something for the weekend

RON – SIR WINSTON / SLIPPIN JIMMY – E.W. DOUBLE

SEAN – GIUDEKK (5-55 LINGFIELD)

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