Breeders Cup, Hen Knight returns and, have you signed the petition?

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The World of Sport
The World of Sport
Breeders Cup, Hen Knight returns and, have you signed the petition?
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Today we discuss the Breeders Cup, the return of Hen Knight to the training ranks and….have you signed the petition yet?

A new format ae we now discuss just four races of a Saturday, the rest being saved for our subscribed membership….it was either that, or put the Podcast behind a pay wall and I hate doing things like that!

1.50pm Wincanton

This race takes me back!

In 2013 I had to go to Ireland for a few days of meetings in the October, and before I left I told members they had to get on a horse called WONDEFUL CHARM when he next ran, because he would be winning. The reason Nicholls had to get a win in before the end of November was that he lost his novice status at the end of that month….he won this race @ 11/8, having won two weeks earlier @ 8/11 and he had a hat-trick of wins rattled up before the end of the November….nobody got rich, but it was easy money. It was nearly a year later that he won again but the job was done.

No age bias to this race, the last five winners have been aged 4, 5, 6, 7, 8….and as the weights also tell us nothing, it’s the market where we find our winner.

In the last 10 years the winner has not been outside the front three on the tissue, and we’ve had five winning favourites.

It’s currently 8/11 KNAPPERS HILL to make it six in the last 11 running’s, and it’s 10/1 bar two so, one of KNAPPERS HILL or CAPTAIN CONBY wins this as last years 5/1 winner was the biggest priced in the last decade.

Don’t go looking for ghosts as they do not exist….KNAPPERS HILL wins this. Officially a stone the better horse and racing off level weights, if he gets round (always an if in a novice chase), he wins.

RON – KNAPPERS HILL

SEAN – DOYEN STAR – E.W.

2.05pm Newcastle

A Listed all weather race and if you’ve been following the all weather OMMS, you know just how good they are right now, at finding winners and placed horses so, competition players, pin back yer lug ‘oles!

The last four winners have been aged 3, 4, 5, 6 but six of the last nine winners were aged three, or four so, my first shortlist reads:

  • TACARIB BAY
  • EMBRACE
  • GLORIOUS ANGEL
  • SECRET ANGEL
  • SENSE OF DUTY
  • SOPHIA’S STARLIGHT
  • SWEET HARMONY

Seven of those winners carried less than 9st 7lb but they all qualify on that count this time around as none carry the 3lb penalty for having won a Listed race after March 31st.

The market strongly suggests a spot front four on the tissue is required as eight of the last nine winners were so from that list above we run with:

  • SENSE OF DUTY

Only one horse makes the cut and the Haggas runner is also currently the 11/4 favourite (it’s then 7/1 bar), and I see that as a positive, as four of the last nine favourites have won this.

He’s the only course and distance winner in the field, the second is rated 4lb inferior and yet has to give my selection 5lb….no brainer….if they all run to form!

RON – SENSE OF DUTY

SEAN – SENSE OF DUTY

3-00 pm Wincanton

Just five runners so we won’t keep you long here!

If you are not front two on the tissue, stay in your box….the last eight winners sat front pair, the last four favourites winning, and five of them in the last seven running’s, so that all makes RUBAUD look solid gold.

Currently the 5/6 favourite ahead of HANSARD, who trades around 7/4, it is then 10/1 bar that pair.

HANSARD get 6lb off RUBAUD but….he’s officially Rated 10lb inferior and also has to concede race fitness to the Nicholls trained favourite.

Has to be RUBAUD doesn’t it.

RON – RUBAUD

SEAN – SACRE COUER – E.W.

2.45pm Aintree

 This race might yet not be run as they are inspecting the National course in the morning. We have had rain of biblical proportions on Wirral and Merseyside all week, and it is going to be very hard work at Aintree on Saturday, and as if the ground isn’t bad enough, we also go to work on this in the knowledge that three of the last four winners returned SP’s of 16/1, 20/1 and 20/1….let’s see what the runes say regardless.

You need to be aged eight, or nine….eight of the last 10 winners were, as also were the last five winners:

  • FANTASTIC LADY
  • MINELLA TRUMP
  • BORN BY THE SEA
  • COOPER’S CROSS
  • FRERO BANBOU
  • PERCUSSION
  • YCCS PORTOCERVO
  • HALF SHOT

Only three winners in the last 10 years carried less than 10st 12lb so I have to run with that, despite reservations about the ground.

  • FANTASTIC LADY
  • MINELLA TRUMP
  • BORN BY THE SEA
  • COOPER’S CROSS
  • FRERO BANBOU

That actually gets rid of a horse I fancied! YCCS PORTOCERVO is trained by the good Dr Richard Newland, who has saddled seven horses for this in the last 10 years, won with one, placed with two.

Market next and as I’ve pointed out, we get some big priced winners here but, five of the last eight winners were front six on the tissue and, we did get two winning favourites in 2016 and, 2017….:

  • FANTASTIC LADY
  • BORN BY THE SEA
  • COOPER’S CROSS

A three horse dutch if you must get involved here but, I’m going to remove FANTASTIC LADY here despite here superb run over these fences in this years Topham. She has to carry 12st and I cannot find a winner of this that has ever done that.

One of BORN BY THE SEA, or COOPER’S CROSS, carries the Post Racing shekel…..and I mean a single, solitary, shekel!

Of that pair I’m going with the Irish trained BORN BY THE SEA, who ran a huge race in this years Grand National, finishing a 10 length fifth @ 50/1.

Currently 8/1, I’ll pop him up as a 20/80 and hope he remembers how to win a race….he last did that in July 2021 so it’s going to be a long time between drinks, if he pulls it off.

RON – BORN BY THE SEA – 20/80

SEAN – NASSALAM – E.W.

BEST OF THIS WEEK’S OMMS

ALL NEWCASTLE 07/11/23

  • STRONG JOHNSON – 12/1 > 6/1 – WON 6/1
  • PANAMA CITY – 12/1 > 8/1 – WON 14/1
  • POCKLEY – 25/1 > 8/1 – WON 6/1

Something for the weekend

RON – SENSE OF DUTY

SEAN – SENSE OF DUTY

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