Low sun, wet ground, and Irish racing….all shot at this week!

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The World of Sport
Low sun, wet ground, and Irish racing....all shot at this week!
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You probably have your own opinions on low sun and missed obstacles, also the volume of rain we are seeing right now….the weather hates us, doesn’t it!?

Irish racing….wholly uncompetitive stuff, farcical in fact and I liken it to the Scottish Premier League!

What are your thoughts?

Below you have my side of the conversation, with Sean’s selections for the races discussed.

Irish Racing – and we thought ours was bad?  How do they survive with three top trainers pretty much sweeping up all the decent races?

We had Down Royal last Friday and Saturday. Friday was a seven race card, and Gordon Elliott won six of those seven races….he was third in the handicap.

On Saturday, they had another seven race card….Gordon Elliott won the first five on the card. That was 11 winners, of just 14 races.

On Sunday they held an eight race card at Naas. Elliott had a day off so in step Mullins and De Bromhead, who took five of those eight races between them.

Today they have a meeting at Punchestown….none of the big guns entered anything for the first, De Bromhead won the second.

Now, obviously they will not win all those big races because the nature of the beast is that sometimes even they will have one drop the anchor and not fancy it….but you have to say, it’s all very Scottish Premier League over there now, isn’t it!

Saturday Racing

1-19pm Wetherby

Only five previous running’s of this race and they have been won by horses aged 4, 5, 6, 7, 8….you could not make that up!

The one superb stat punters have to work with though is that the last four favourites have won it, and the very first running was won by the second favourite so, whilst it’s impossible to Profile, all a punter seemingly needs to do is wait for the market to form, then wait for their Saturday Newsletter, when I’ll have my OMMS all studly and buffed.

RON – THE FAVOURITE

SEAN – MOLLY OLLYS WISHES – E.W.

1.54pm Wetherby

Eight previous running’s of this event so a little more to look through but not enough for full profiling I’m afraid. Definitely no age group bias as yet, other than I’d not want to be with anything younger than six, or older than eight….that rules three out I guess.

If the age stat works then our winner is one of:

  • ERNE RIVER
  • UBETYA
  • GRANDEUR D’AME
  • GOOD WORK

However, they all fail one test that looks solid. The last five winners were all making seasonal debut and the only pair that are not, fail the age test….that’s why eight years back history simply isn’t enough.

If that stat works, then the winner is one of:

  • BARON DE MIDDLETON
  • CORNERSTONE LAD
  • LETS GO TO VEGAS

Weight ranges suggest 11st or more, but not 12st….only one has tried to lump that weight and failed to place so, comparing and contrasting the two groups above, and popping them into a centrifuge, the horses surviving that are:

  • BARON DE MIDDLETON
  • CORNERSTONE LAD
  • UBEYTA
  • GRANDEUR D’AME

Of that quartet my eye is drawn to GRANDEUR D’AME. He represents the winning most age group, seven, and he has not raced since finishing fifth at Aintree in May.

His form figures on seasonal debut read 1, 1, 3….so he’s seemingly easy to get fit.

RON – GRANDEUR D’AME

SEAN – LETS GO TO VEGAS – E.W. (5/1 OR BIGGER)

2.36pm Lingfield 

 Just seven going to post but it’s competitive enough.

Horses aged three and four have dominated this in the last 10 years, winning eight of those 10 races between them and I’m swiftly down to just a pair here, using that stat:

  • BLUE TRAIL
  • ROUSAY

I have looked at the market for this race and every runner bar FOXES TALES, is drifting.

So, which of that pair wins this?

There has only been one winner bigger than 6/1 in the last 10 running’s of this race and so, it has to be BLUE TRAIL.

ROUSAY is 16/1 from 11/1 and they seem to think he’s missing a leg.

BLUE TRAIL is the current 9/2 third favourite and I’ll suggest a 20/80 to buttons.

RON – BLUE TRAIL – 20/80

SEAN – REGAL REALITY

3.11pm Lingfield

We have a very short priced three year old, MISCHIEF MAGIC 5/4, heading this market and it’s then 8/1 bar.

Stats tell me I need to be looking for an older horse….older than 4 anyway, as the last four winners have been aged 5, 6, 7, 8….but here the stats are asking you to ignore the blatantly obvious, and say the favourite cannot win the race.

Sometimes you have to let common sense override the runes and look at the truth of the matter.

MISCHIEF MAGIC Is rated 10ld superior to ABRAMA GOLD, yet gets to race off level weights.

TACARIB BAY is rated 5lb inferior to the favourite yet has to give him 3lb….and those two horses are sitting third and fourth favourite.

The current second favourite, PINK CRYSTAL, is rated 7lb inferior to MISCHIEF MAGIC, yet only gets 2lb….and if I then tell you that the favourite has won the last three running’s of this race, and five of the last nine renewals, you have to agree that if he turns up fit, well and ready, MISCHIEF MAGIC wins this race.

RON – MISCHIEF MAGIC

SEAN – PINK CRYSTAL – E.W.

THE BEST OF THE OMMS THIS WEEK

  • DYSANIA – 20/1 > 13/2 – WON 11/2
  • APOLOGISE – 14/1 > 8/1 – WON 9/1
  • KEEP ME STABLE – 10/1 > 6/1 – WON 5/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

  • RON – BLUE TRAIL / MISCHIF MAGIC – DOUBLE
  • SEAN – PINK CRYSTAL – E.W.
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