Today we try to put the racing world to rights and discuss the Irish domination, why Premierisation is doomed to fail….or is it?….and we discuss six races for tomorrow, including a 24 runner Irish Handicap….we must be mad!
Below you have my side of the conversation with Sean’s selections for each race and our SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
No previous running’s of this race so Profiling is null and void.
I will produce Ratings for it tomorrow but for Podcast purposes only, I’ll tell you now that two trainers that had entries and a huge level stake profit in such races being run here are Olly Murphy, five winners from 18 runners in such races as this, a lovely +29 pts profit, and Micky Hammond, nine winners from 68 runners, a profit of +65.8pts….Murphy had GARDNER entered but has not declared.
Hammond has NOT WHAT IT SEEMS who is currently something like 8/1 and I will say let’s go 20/80 at those odds.
RON – NOT WHAT IT SEEMS – 20/80
SEAN – CEPAGE – E.W.
You have spoiled me with the race selections this week and here we have a 13 runner handicap at my second favourite track in the country.
Nine previous running’s, one shy of my need when it comes to Profiling but let’s see what happens.
Horses aged five and six are the “go to” age groups, as they have won eight of those nine running’s, and the last seven.
- YOUR HONOR
- PARK ANNONCIADE
- CUBAN CIGAR
I’m getting nothing from weight ranges just yet but market position is screaming off the page!
No winning favourites yet, but seven of the nine winners have sat second of third favourite, the two odd ones out sat fourth on the tissue.
- YOUR HONOR
If Profiling works on this limited data, one of that pair visits the winner’s enclosure so a dutch….but for the Podcast selection I’ll plump for the Pirate coming over from Ireland, YOUR HONOR.
Second favourites have won five of the nine previous renewals and he’s sitting in that spot at 5/1….20/80.
RON – YOUR HONOR – 20/80
SEAN – SEXTANT – E.W.
I said earlier that you’d spoiled me with your race selections this week but now I have a 24 runner Irish Handicap to work with, and a dumb look on my face.
Might as well be a Rubik’s Cube I’m looking at because trying to solve an Irish Handicap requires the luck of Beelzebub, inside information, and knowledge I do not have of track etc….sure, I watch these races but then I get back to my bread and butter.
Ok….I’ve nine previous running’s in front of me….eight have been won by horses trading a single figure price, which surprised me….but Willie Mullins won it three years ago with a 40/1 shot.
Eight of the nine winners carried less than 11st but when it comes to age groups…6, 7, 8….so let’s see if a rabbit pops it’s head out of this hat
I’m not about to bang a shortlist of 20 horses in here, because that’s how many qualify….so how many carry less than 11st?
- MUSIC OF TARA
- BLACK BAMBOO
- PARK OF KINGS
Any trading a single figure price?
Before I go there, JP has one sitting second favourite, who failed by 1lb to make the weights cut….CANAL END….and trading 5/1…..a beaten favourite last time out you have to consider it.
The shortest priced runner in that five above is MUSIC OF TARA….De Bromhead/Blackmore….12/1….and for Podcast purposes only, a shilling e.w.
RON – MUSIC OF TARA – 20/80
SEAN – MUSIC OF TARA – E.W
Stunning race….saw this and was rubbing my hands because we’ve been dealing with nonsense all week, most of which shouldn’t have been taking place.
The unfortunate thing is, I only have eight previous running’s of this race to try and cobble some stats together from.
Age groupings….no use at all….the eight previous winners have been aged 8, 7, 9, 6, 6, 8, 5, 6 and weight ranges too are all over the shop, everything from 9st 12lb to 11st 7lb….and that is just in the last five running’s.
Market position offers a little hope as whilst we had a 20/1 winner of the inaugural running, we’ve seen nothing bigger than 10/1 since, with four of the last five winners returning a single figure price.
The winner has been front three on the tissue in the last two running’s, and in four of the last eight so right now I’m looking at one of:
- ED KEEPER
- WEST BALBOA
Four of the eight winners to date have carried less that 11st and the only one of that trio fitting that bill is TRANSMISSION.
That is the horse Joe Anderson performed miracles to win on a month ago now and at around 7/1, I’ll say go 20/80
RON – TRANSMISSION – 20/80
SEAN – SCAMALLACH LIATH – E.W.
I found a fan club last year, after I suggested FASTORSLOW was much better than we’d seen after his second to CORACH RAMBLER at Cheltenham, beaten a neck giving the winner 4lb.
A few took the hint, backed it at huge double figure prices next time up and he beat the Gold Cup winner in their version at Punchestown….20/1 the returned SP….but far bigger was up for grabs that morning.
He proved that was no fluke on seasonal debut, too, beating GALOPIN DES CHAMPS into third place and now leads 2-0 on head-to-head stats.
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is 2/5 tomorrow, FASTORSLOW 3/1….the last named has beaten the favourite when he has been trading 4/11 and 1 / 2 and yep, I know the favourite tomorrow is officially 12lb the better horse, but the formbook says FASTORSLOW is?
A race I’d never have a bet in to save my life, but I have to stick with FASTORSLOW until the other one beats him.
RON – FASTORSLOW
SEAN – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
Now I have one I can get right stuck into. It has cut up to just 10 runners but at least I have stats and tends to play around with.
First, age groupings….stick with horses aged seven (3), or eight (4), as they have won seven of the last 10, and the last four running’s of this race:
- BANGERS AND CASH
- DOM OF MARY
I can dutch for a profit and that’s me sorted if I opt to follow Profiling, as opposed to my Ratings/OMMS tomorrow.
The last three, and six of the last 10 winners of this, all carried more than 11st and they fit….and they are all 8-y-o’s, too, which have won two of the last three running’s.
Market next and it’s been a tad strange in recent years, the last two winners returning a double figure SP
The previous eight though returned no bigger than 9/1 with six 7/1 or shorter so at this point we drop GROZNI, currently 11/1…..
- BANGERS AND CASH
- DOM OF MARY
I’m going to work with DOM OF MARY, the simple reason being 11st 2lb versus 11st 8lb….only one horse in the last decade has carried more than 11st 7lb to victory here and BANGERS AND CASH has 1lb in excess of that….DOM OF MARY 11ST 2LB.
RON – DOM OF MARY
SEAN – KESTREL VALLEY
THE BEST OF THE OMMS
- GRANT WOOD – 16/1 > 12/1 – WON 20/1
- POCKLINGTON – 20/1 > 12/1 – WON 8/1
- EPSOM FAITHFULL – 10/1 > 11/2 – WON 13/2
Something for the weekend
RON – TRANSMISSION/DOM OF MARY – E.W. DOUBLE
SEAN – MUSIC OF TARA – E.W.