Istabraq, City Of Troy and Sean has a peach of a tip for Saturday!

0
The World of Sport
The World of Sport
Istabraq, City Of Troy and Sean has a peach of a tip for Saturday!
Loading
/

A cracking good hour of racing chat, with four selections each for the racing on Saturday.

The text of my side of the conversatiuon below, for our hard of hearing members.

Haydock 1.50pm

Eight going to post and looking at the ages of the last 10 winners, you would not want to be betting on anything other than horses aged 5+….they have won nine of the last 10 running’s and that means one of:

  • LIVE IN THE DREAM
  • COMMANCHE FALLS
  • KORKER
  • PINK CRYSTAL
  • TEES SPIRIT

….wins this.

Weight ranges don’t come into play in the way they would in a handicap and so I’ll look at past market positions next and seven of the last eight winners returned SP’s of 5/1 or shorter.

I didn’t think this would take long to sort out and here I have just one qualifier….LIVE IN THE DREAM, trained by Adam West, who is what I’d call a proper “shrewdie”

Since this market opened this horse is 6/4 > E, fits the age profile perfectly, being a five year old….the last two winners were and, four of the last seven.

This is a Listed race and here we have a horse that won last year’s Group 1 Nunthorpe, before going to the Breeders Cup and finishing fourth in the Group 2 Woodford Stakes.

He’ll do for me.

RON – LIVE IN THE DREAM

SEAN – LIVE IN THE DREAM

Beverley 2.05pm

Oh joy of joys….15 juveniles to work with and this is like chucking dice up the table!

My only port of call for such races is the market, then to look for clues away from my normal criteria such as trainers that perhaps target it etc, draw bias in years gone by on ground like that they’ll face tomorrow.

I want to work with the front four on the tissue….they have won the last nine of these and they are:

  • MAW LAM
  • OVER SPICED
  • STORM CALL
  • AVIATION TIME
  • LARCHILL LASS

We have a pair trading joint fourth favourite as I type.

Now I’ll employ what is a definite draw bias at Beverley in such races, when the ground rides as it will tomorrow, unless they get a monsoon!

You need to be drawn low and that is shored up by the fact that six of the last eight winners came from a draw no higher than six. Only MAW LAM and OVER SPICED make the cut. It is a plus to arrive having won last time out, and both do that.

I would happily dutch that pair but for Podcast purposes I’ll put up OVER SPICED. My reason for doing that is because on debut MAW LAM missed the break and if that is a trait then from that one stall he is going to need loads of luck. OVER SPICED raced on the speed last time out and the horse he beat, MILITRAY GIRL, franked that form at Catterick on May 31st

I’ll have OVER SPICED 20/80 at around 15/2 as I type.

It is not a race to get the mortgage on, that’s for sure!

RON – OVER SPICED – 20/80

SEAN – MAW LAM

Haydock 3.00pm

A Group 3 and 14 fillies currently set to line up for a decent enough £48k first prize.

Consisting of 10 x 4-y-o’s and 4 x 5-y-o’s, I’d suggest we concentrate our attentions to the younger horses, not just because of those numbers but seven of the last 10 winners, and four of the last five winners, were aged four.

I’m not going to rattle off a 10 runner shortlist, and neither will I cover weight ranges because they all carry 9st 2lb….but I will say we want to be with a four year old, sitting front three on the tissue. We have two to work with:

  • SEA THEME
  • SAPPHIRE SEAS

Very nautical!

The rest is easy. SEA THEME is trained by William Haggas, who has trained the last two winners of this….SEA LA ROSA and SEA SILK ROAD….both by SEA THE STARS, as is SEA THEME….so you can “sea” where I’m coming from!

On official figures SEA THEME is 6lb wrong with SAPPHIRE SEAS and the latter opened favourite. However, they have flip flopped and the Haggas runner is now 13/2 > 9/2, the Godolphin runner 9/2 > 11/2

It does all point to SEA THEME

RON – SEA THEME

SEAN – LADY BOBA (E.W.)

Haydock 3.35pm

The last two winners of this, JUMBY and POGO take part again and I see JUMBY has been punted 20/1 > 12/1, POGO 10/1 > 7/1. When they took this race, both had been given two runs to clear the tubes and tomorrow they arrive having raced twice this season. Plotted might be a word to use.

However, POGO is now an 8-y-o and the last of that age to win this was PERTINENT in 2014 @ 33/1…I can see POGO placing, but not winning.

JUMBY is a six year old, and they have taken two of the last four running’s.

I want to be with horses aged 4, 5 or six, but again, with this being a Group race I cannot apply weight ranges so it’s the market again I’m turning to….and with seven of the last eight winners sitting front three on the tissue, and with us having seen three winning favourites in the last four years (and five in the last seven), I have to look to work with:

  • NOBLE DYNASTY
  • WITCH HUNTER
  • FLIGHT PLAN

The current favourite is NOBLE DYNASTY, but he arrives having won a handicap. The other two contested the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes and that race also produced last year’s winner, JUMBY.

NOBLE DYNASTY might well prove to be much better than a handicapper, but I have to go with WITCH HUNTER, who ran third at Newbury, is officially rated 2lb lower than FLIGHT PLAN, but gets 5lb here tomorrow. He finished 27 lengths in front of FLIGHT PLAN that day but I reckon there will be nothing like that in it tomorrow.

Only two of the last 10 winners have been drawn higher than five, the last five drawn 3, 3, 7, 5, 1….that also gives a positive to WITCH HUNTER, drawn 1, whilst FLIGHT PLAN has 8 to content with.

RON – WITCH HUNTER

SEAN – POGO

OMMS PICK OF THE POPS!

  • TREFOR – 10/1 > 11/2 > 5/1 – WON 7/2
  • TROJAN TRUTH – 10/1 > 11/2 > 5/1 – WON 7/2
  • EDGEWATER DRIVE – 40/1 > 14/1 > 11/1 > 9/1 – WON 13/2

Something for the weekend

RON – SEA THEME

SEAN – STUNNING PEACH – 12-35PM SHA TIN – SATURDAY

- PLAY EUROMILLIONS! -
Previous articleMullins, switching tracks, Kentucky Derby & all weather Classic winners?