Sean goes off piste again…and I drop a Royal Ascot horse in!

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The World of Sport
The World of Sport
Sean goes off piste again...and I drop a Royal Ascot horse in!
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This week we discuss several racing topics, including the BHA job (who wants that?!), the record breaking South African jockey, the cracking good deal offered by Ballinrobe and then see about finding you some weekend winners, with Sean again looking away from these shores for his Something For The Weekend.

Below you have the text of my side of the conversation regarding the four races discussed.

Saturday Racing

Sandown 2.40pm

A Listed sprint, eight runners, All aged three so age and weight ranges are pretty much null and void.

Nine of the last 10 winners were front four on the tissue, and I’d be happy suggesting our winner is one of:

  • ADAAY IN DEVON
  • FLORA OF BERMUDA
  • NO HALF MEASURES
  • GRACEFUL THUNDER

I’m finding it impossible to gauge how good or otherwise NO HALF MEASURES is….only one run on turf, and a soft ground Class 4 handicap. Runs off the same weight as FLORA OF BERMUDA, who is officially 11lb the better horse. I cannot have the Richard Hughes horse on my mind here….might prove me a mile wrong but I’ll take that on the chin if it wins here.

This will be the lowest grade FLORA OF BERMUDA has raced in for a good while now. The form figures might look uninspiring but those have been gained in Group races, and she went off favourite to win the Cornwallis Stakes at Newmarket last October.

ADAAY IN DEVON is the clear tissue favourite and probably deserves to be the jolly having won six and placed second in 10 of her 13 starts. Raced mainly at this level but did run second in a Commonwealth Cup Trial race, Group 3, at Ascot in May.

I think it’s between the front two in the current betting and favour the Balding runner. It could be Listed level is where she wins her races and Andrew Balding is firing in winners left right and centre at the minute. Oisin Murphy too is on fire fight now, 17 winners from 73 rides in the last two weeks (23% strike rate), and I’m going to nail mu colours to her mast.

RON – FLORA OF BERMUDA

SEAN – NIGHTEYES  – E.W.

York 3.00pm

An Ebor trial, just six going to the start. The only runner with winning form at this trip is REAL DREAM so no guesswork there, as there is for the tissue favourite RELENTLESS VOYAGER, who has only been ridden by Oisin Murphy since he turned three. Tomorrow Hayley Turner takes over and Oisin goes to Sandown….I’m taking the hint!

Balding, who trains this one, might be in brilliant form right now but he has sent six for this previously and only had a pair place.

This usually goes to an older horse, aged 5+ and, it also generally goes to a horse trading front two on the tissue. Nine of the last 11 running’s have done so and the only qualifier is the distance winner REAL DREAM.

Not a race I’d get overly involved in but I’m with REAL DREAM

RON – REAL DREAM

SEAN – KLONDIKE

Chester 3.20pm

Only five previous running’s off this race so not a snowball in hells chance of Profiling it so I’m going to use a lucky pin, cross fingers, lay my prayer mat out….and “guess”.

We have 14 runners, all aged three, heading down to the start and so my first port of call is weight ranges….I can tell you now though that trying to work out 3-y-o handicaps is akin to knitting treacle.

The last three winners all carried 9st 6lb or more and the only runner here trying to repeat that trend is the current favourite, WITNESS STAND….drawn in 12….all five previous winners have been sat front five on the tissue but only one winning favourite.

I’d usually be ruling out horses drawn 10 and up….but stall 10 won last season! Prior to that though, the winners came from stalls 4, 8, 3, 2 and I’m looking at that tin of treacle and thinking, give it up now.

I am going to revert to something that worked once or twice last year, that being trainer form both in the race we worked on, and all race adding that stat to the draw bias/market position.

Doing this points me to BLUE PRINCE. Trainer David Evans has run just 14 horses here, in races of this kind….won with five, producing a superb +12.23pts level stake profit.

He will be ridden by Richard Kingscote, who is fast overtaking Franny Norton as the “go to” jockey for Chester. Drawn in stall four….perfect.  The horse has won or placed in five starts on turf and at 8/1, he’s my 20/80

RON – BLUE PRINCE – 20/80

SEAN – BURDETT – E.W.

York 3.35pm

A 19 runner all 3-y-o hándicap…well, good luck with this one!

We have had winners returning SP’s of 20/1, 25/1 and 20/1 in the last nine years….and only one winning favourite, and that was back in 2013.

Six of the last 10 winners carried less than 9st…..but three of the last four winners carried more.

We had six consecutive winners drawn low….7, 2, 1, 5, 3, 3….but the last two winners 19, 20

I cannot make head nor tail of this using Profiling so all I’m going to do is work with whatever Clive Cox is running….six previous runners in this, won it in 2022 and has placed with another.

He saddles JAMES’S DELIGHT, has booked Ryan Moore for it has a nice low draw (if it reverts back to type!), and the 9/1 is a 20/80 price.

Cox is another trainer in blindingly good form right now, four of his last 10 runners have visited the winner’s enclosure and the bloke on board is no negative!

RON – JAMES’S DELIGHT – 20/80

SEAN – ZIGGYS CONDOR – E.W.

THE BEST OF THE OMMS

  1. BEAUTIFUL CROWN – 20/1 > 9/2 – WON 9/4
  2. SIR BENEDICT – 14/1 > 7/1 – WON 8/1
  3. CHARMING WHISPER – 14/1 > 8/1 – WON 7/2

Something for the weekend

RON – REAL DREAM

SEAN – TAMFANA (French Oaks, Sunday)

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