For our hard of hearing supporters please find my side of the conversation below.
I’d like to invite 500 people to join us in our new 500 Club venture. In the first instance please register your interest at the500.club and once we hit 500 members, we close the gates.
- Arc Weekend – highlights and lowlights
Do you know, I haven’t seen a single race run over those two days?
I know Aidan O’Brien saddled four winners on the Saturday, and one on the Sunday, which beat his hotpot in that Group 1….and hubby and wife, Tom Marquand and Hollie Doyle, came home 1-2 (in the wrong order for punters!), in the l’Abbaye…
I have been so busy getting the 500 Club website set up, sorting out Newsletters etc that I still need to sit down and watch those two days back.
- ITV support Flat racing with a 2 hour Breeders Cup Show – good on them.
Do you know, I might watch that. As long as they talk racing for two hours and don’t go looking at the local fashion, or have some bloke waffling on about the $800 bottle of wine, that goes well with the $2000 lunch some are having, great. I’d like to see a couple of experts on American racing there, discussing each race in turn, pointing out not just the better fancied runners, but also those capable of springing a surprise….what I know about American racing you can put on the back of a postage stamp so I’d need help….still not betting mind!
- Rossa Ryan – a jockey in demand and very much on the up – where next for the 24 year old
Very much on the up but, when I was working on tomorrow’s racing, which we’ll be chatting about later, I noted he has been…or appears to have been….jocked off SKELLET in the Newmarket 1-35? Ryan Moore has been given the ride whilst Rossa is on the 25/1 outsider? I wonder what’s going on there then?
Nice payday on Sunday mind! He could buy a semi up here for that!
I guess no matter how good a jockey is, if Moore is available, he’s got the ride.
Rossa is one of those group of jocks that will get big rides….Marquand, and a few others in the same group….because Moore cannot ride them all!
- Amo Racing spurge – can racing still scream poverty when such sums are changing hands?
It’s the bottom of the food chain screaming poverty. Those playing at the top table are having no problems. We have a handful owners/trainers/jockeys dining on the finer foods, and the rest are on the streets begging for scraps.
Look away from those big yards and billionaire owners, who will consistently win the big prizes, have the next roster of horses at the big studs, and you see how much trouble the game is in at the bottom.
Racetracks needing to have nine race cards, full of bad horses, racing for the bookmakers, Monday to Thursday, festivals aside, the racing is poor, the odd Class 4, mostly Class 5 or Class 6, owners spending more on keeping their pet in training than they will ever win in prize money, so yep, racing, in the main, can scream poverty in my opinion.
Saturday Racing
1.15pm Newmarket
Nine runners, only three of which have won on the going as currently described, the third favourite, MUBHIR, already 0-4 on it but we’ll see what we can do with it.
Three year olds have won five of the last 10 running’s here, including three of the last five and two of the last three so I’m thinking I’ll go down that road….and we have ap air in here, LEAD ARTIST, SKELLET….which I mentioned earlier. I’d dutch for a profit.
On official ratings/weights there is just 1lb between them, in favour of LEAD ARTIST and he also fits from a current tissue price angle. Only one of the last seven winners had taken this priced bigger than 13/2, and we’ve had three winning favourites, including the last two….so LEAD ARTIST gets the gig at this end.
RON – LEAD ARTIST
SEAN – LEAD ARTIST
1.50pm Newmarket
Seven juveniles, all carrying 9st 4lb, and a race Charlie Appleby has won for the last three years. When you see a stat like that you think, BINGO…. then you look to see he doesn’t have a runner.
As I type nothing is being supported…. quite the opposite in fact…and that is because nothing has won on the going as is currently described, nothing has won over the trip, and they are all 0-0 at Newmarket.
So how do you find the winner of a race like this?
The market has been a good guide in recent times, Only two of the last eight winners going off bigger than 7/2. The only qualifiers right now are SHACKLETON and STARZINTHEIREYES
Both have been easy to bet since this market opened, the first named 2/1 > 9/4, the Beckett trained runner 11/4 > 3/1 > 10/3.
I cannot look outside this pair for my winner working as I work and so I’ll pin my colours to the mast of SHCAKLETON, trained by Aiden O’Brien, who took this race in 2017 and 2018.
Beckett took it in 2019 so a dutch makes sense.
For Podcast purposes only, I’ll go with SHACKELTON.
RON – SHACKLETON
SEAN – SHACKLETON
2.25pm Newmarket
A six runner Group 3 and I note that a runner here that Appleby had entered for that previous race runs here instead….and whilst he has won that previous race for the last three years, he has won this one for the last four….and five of the last seven years, too.
Again we are dealing with 2-y-o’s, all carrying 9st 3lb and again just two horse trading at the prices I’d look at from the market angle.
The first is trained by Aidan O’Brien DELACROIX, who arrives having been beaten in two of three previous runs.
Then we have that Appleby runner, SILVER PEAK and I have to run with this horse for several reasons….first, Appleby’s record….phenomenal…then the horse….1-1 ground….1-1 trip….whilst DELACROIX is already 0-2 at the trip, never raced on good to soft, and he’s trading favourite…just two winning favourites in the last decade.
He was also beaten last time out and in the last five years four winners of this arrived having won last time out.
RON – SILVER PEAK
SEAN – SILVER PEAK
3.00pm Newmarket
Another juvenile event but this is the “one”….the Dewhurst, won last season by CITY OF TROY.
Now, we have just six runners, three of which are trained by Aidan O’Brien, two by Charlie Appleby….which takes me back to what I was saying earlier about those sitting at the top table not having a concern about the state of racing, because they are partly responsible for it.
It’s no surprise that seven of the last nine running’s of this race have gone to Coolmore, or Godolphin…and it will again tomorrow.
THE LION IN WINTER arrives unbeaten in two O’Brien, as did CITY OF TROY last season. He is, officially, 3lb the lesser of the two but that will be because he is far less exposed than SHADOW OF LIGHT, who has already had four trips to the racecourse.
THE LION IN WINTER arrives with a huge reputation, already trades 5/1 favourite for the 2000Gns, SHADOW OF LIGHT 16/1….5/1 favourite for the Derby….6/1 for the Boat Race….and 10/1 to score a hat-trick in an Anfield Derby match.
Truth is, I have no idea how good he is but he’s odds on to win this and he’ll need to justify those odds tomorrow to even get a shirt in the Derby game!
RON – THE LION IN WINTER
SEAN – THE LION IN WINTER
3.40pm Newmarket (Cesarewich)
A race dominated by NH trainers both in the last 10 years (8 synonymous with jumpers), the name Mullins writ large on the scoreboard, three of the last six to Willie, last year Emmet with THE SHUNTER, who tries again tomorrow having been off the racecourse since November last year.
I’d not even look at this race were it not for doing a Podcast but I’d say we want a six or seven year old, trained in Ireland (five of the last six renewals have gone over there), trading 10/1 or shorter….but not favourite (only two winning favourites in the last decade).
Nothing fits, except for the fact we have a pair of Irish trained horses sitting second and third favourite….a Willie Mullins/William Buick ridden favourite….aged 6….that has not run on the flat for 793 days.
Mullins got this horse, SEA OF SANDS, in 2022 and God alone knows what he has been doing with it since then….but he ran it over hurdles on September 25th and it bolted in…it was making debut over timber that day.
Nothing in the race is being supported right now….that one is 7/2 > 4/1 > 9/2….THE Hayley Turned ridden Emmet Mullins trained second favourite JACOVEC CAVERN 5/1 > 6/1 > 13/2
That horse was off the track for 459 days before running at Galway in July, and running home second, a beaten favourite.
You cannot bet this race without applying 100% of your selection process to guesswork and so, magic pin in hand I’ll stab the page….DAWN RISING….seriously, I just did that!
RON – DAWN RISING – 20/80
SEAN – TROOPER BISBEE – E.W.
4.50pm Newmarket
We’ve spoken about the success story behind ALFA KELLENIC but I imagine both Tom Eaves and William Pyle are gutted being jocked off by Ryan Moore tomorrow. Pyle has been on board for five of his seven wins, Eaves on board for two….top table stuff again, eh.
Three year olds have won nine of the last 10 of these, and whilst ALFA KELLENIC fits on that score, we have had just a pair of winning favourites, and they both went off joint favourite. For a race as competitive as this is, would you want to be taking 2/1?
Never in a million years would I bet this race but hey, it’s the Podcast and I have to go somewhere and I’m selecting the other three year old trading shorter than 20/1, GOT TO LOVE A GREY.
We have had four of the last 10 winners returning 20/1 or shorter, with three in 2019, 2020, and 2021 returning odds of 11/1, 18/1 and 12/1, the last pair being 3-y-o’s.
Karl Burke trains and what a season he has had! This one is currently around the 12/1 mark and a speculative 20/80
RON – GOT TO LOVE A GREY – 20/80
SEAN – ALFA KELLENIC
OMMS
- DARBUCKS – 18/1 > 6/1 – WON 5/1
- SECRET ROAD – 20/1 > 9/2 – WON 7/4F
- MARSH BENHAM – 12/1 > 4/1 – WON 7/2
All three wore the flame indicating they were “strong”, too
Something for the weekend
RON – SILVER PEAK – Newmarket 2-25pm
SEAN – THE LION IN WINTER – Newmarket 3-00
