Lady riders, the Arc winner, the Gambling Commision and seven winners tomorrow!

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The World of Sport
Lady riders, the Arc winner, the Gambling Commision and seven winners tomorrow!
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  1. Lady Riders – did the Shergar Cup simply prove that they are as good or better than their male counterparts but they aren’t getting the rides?

I’d say in the case of Hollie Doyle, she’s better than most male jockeys and Saffie Osbourne has obviously been listening well to her old man who was one of the best riders of a novice 2 mile chaser I have ever seen.

I think we are going to see a rise in lady jockeys being used by top yards, not least because they’ll not be as worried as a bloke about their weight and right now Hollie Doyle sits third in the jockeys table, only Buick, Tom Marquand and Oisin Murphy having had more rides this season….she is currently on 376 rides, 61 winners and total prize money of £1.5m

  • The Arc 2023 – are the middle-distance horses as bad as everyone is saying – who is your early fancy?

I’m not a fan of the current favourite ACE IMPACT, who managed to win a Group 2 at the weekend by ½ a length and on that shorter home run AT Longchamp, than that they have at Deauville, he might be to far back when he starts his run.

I’m a HUKUM fan, and have been since his seasonal debut win. They have PADDINGTON @ 10/1….we dismissed him last week.

FEED THE FLAME was beaten by ACE IMPACT at Deauville but has raced only four times and is 3-3 at Longchamp….I’ll dutch FEED THE FLAME and HUKUM….both 7/1 right now.

Saturday Racing

1.50pm Newbury

In the last 10 years only two horses older than four have succeeded here and in the last six years it is 4-2 to the 3-y-o’s. I’ll start with a shortlist of those aged three and four:

  • JACK DARCY
  • CHING SHIH
  • ARREST
  • KLONDIKE

At the same time as that pair of age groups started to dominate this, so to did horses carrying less than 9st and the only qualifier I have here is:

  • KLONDIKE

Currently third best on the tissue and that sits well with me too, as seven of the last nine winners were. In that span of time, we have also had five winning favourites so ARREST, also a 3-y-o, has to be of interest on that stat alone.

One of that pair wins it and on official ratings it should be ARREST but the Haggas horse is a previous course winner and open to improvement.

RON – KLONDIKE – 20/80

SEAN – ARREST

2.05pm Newmarket

Brilliant….a 16 runner handicap, the stuff my dreams are made of.

Horses aged 3, 4 or 5 are the ones we need to concentrate on if history repeats itself, as nine of the last 10 winners get caught up in that stat:

  • MITROSONFIRE
  • MISTER BLUEBIRD
  • CELTIC CHAMPION
  • DIVINE LIBRA
  • SECRET GUEST
  • STAR OF LADY M
  • STRIKE
  • MASTERCLASS

Last years winner, STRIKE, is in there. He took this as the 11/4 joint favourite12 months ago but I reckon I can get him beaten this time around.

I do not want horses carrying more than 9st 6lb, or less than 8st 5lb in my next list as none of the last 10 winners carried less than my minimum, and only a pair have carried more than 9st 6lb so….:

  • SECRET GUEST
  • STAR OF LADY M
  • STRIKE
  • MASTERCLASS

Down to four, and last years winner is still in there.

Market place next and if you ain’t front four on the tissue, your binned….seven of the last nine winners were, and we have also seen the last three favourites pinging in and I have a brace coming from that list of four.

  • STRIKE
  • MASTERCLASS

So how do I reckon I’ll get STRIKE beaten this year? Well, last year he won from stall 1, and this year he’s out of 16….right on the wing. I feel we need to be drawn middle….4-12 at any rate and MASTERCLASS is boxed in 10….I would have preferred slightly lower but I cannot have everything.

RON – MASTERCLASS – 20/80

SEAN – MUSIC SOCIETY  – E.W.

2.25pm Newbury

No previous running’s of this race so I’m going to try and do a Camacho here….for those that didn’t tune in last week I found us a 15/2 winner trained by Julie Camacho by applying the stats each trainer has in such races, at this track, and whether or not they have a level stake profit and we have one qualifier.

Ed Walker….he has sent 73 for races of this ilk, at this track, in the last 10 years and he has saddled 16 winners, producing a level stake profit of 10.98 points.

Tomorrow I’m going 20/80 LIBRA TIGER. Currently trading 6/1 joint second favourite, and with nowhere else to go, that’s my pick

RON – LIBRA TIGER – 20/80

SEAN – LIBRA TIGER – E.W.

2.40pm Ripon

No previous running’s of this but tomorrow I’ll have figures for it and we’ll see how they stack up.

Two trainers to work with as regards their profitability in such races at this track:

  • PAUL MIDGLEY – LEVEL STAKE PROFIT OF 36.03PTS….76 runners, 13 winners
  • RUTH CARR – 19.45PTS PROFIT….79 runners, 10 winners

Ruth Carr saddles AMERICAN STAR (stall 17), whilst Paul Midgley has STRONG JOHNSON (stall 6).

As I said I have no previous running’s of this but the next race on this card, the Great St Wilfred (to be discussed), has seen six of the last seven winners come from stalls 13, 10, 19, 15, 17, 19 and that might be pertinent because this is run over the same trip. If it is, then my 20/80 here has to go to AMERICAN STAR.

RON – AMERICAN STAR – 20/80

SEAN – THORNABY PEARL

3.00pm Newbury

Lots of juicy back history to this race and with eight of the last 10 winners aged three, four, or five, they make up my first list of potential winners:

  • POPMASTER
  • OPEN MIND
  • LETHAL NYMPH
  • SPANGLED MAC
  • HODLER
  • ISLA KAI
  • CLASSIC
  • SCHOLARSHIP
  • HECTIC
  • ALPHA CAPTURE

Weight ranges next up and anything carrying less than 9st gets the chop as only one winner has carried less (8st 12lb), in 2014 so my list now reads:

  • POPMASTER
  • OPEN MIND
  • LETHAL NYMPH
  • SPANGLED MAC
  • HODLER
  • ISLA KAI
  • CLASSIC

Now head over to the market as I only want horses going forward that sit front four on the tissue….eight of the last 10 winners would be in this net:

  • OPEN MIND
  • SPANGLED MAC
  • CLASSIC

Down to three and a definite dutch.

In order to take just one forward for those Podcast purposes, I’m looking at how the draw has affected a result and no doubt about it, with only two winners drawn higher than six in the last 10 years, the only horse I can work with is CLASSIC, drawn in stall one….6/1 favourite right now and as the favourite has hit the frame in six of these….and the last three, that’s my 20/80 sorted.

RON – CLASSIC – 20/80

SEAN – SCHOLARSHIP  – E.W.

3.15pm Ripon

A 2O runner cavalry charge and if I’m reading the runes right, we only want horses aged five onside here. They have won six of the last nine, and five of the last six running’s of the race so I’ll bang up my first shortlist which includes:

  • IT JUST TAKES TIME
  • WOBWOBWOB
  • TEMPLE BRUER
  • CAIRN GORM

Only four of the field make that cut.

From the weight ranges of the last 10 winners I’d suggest we only want horses carrying less than 0st here as six of the last 10 winners did….and that also includes the last three.

All qualify….good training performances by their handlers!

Market next and here it looks properly funky. We have had five winning favourites but, when the favourite fails, we get a heck of a juicy price about our winner, the other five returning 16/1, 25/1, 10/1, 18/1 and 11/1.

  • IT JUST TAKES TIME
  • WOBWOBWOB
  • TEMPLE BRUER
  • CAIRN GORM

None of those listed is currently trading shorter than 14/1 but as TEMPLE BRUER is 33/1 as I type and I have nowt bigger than 25/1 in the last decade, I’ll have ne a three horse dutch:

  • IT JUST TAKES TIME
  • WOBWOBWOB
  • CAIRN GORM

You need one for that 20/80 though so looking at where they are drawn, and wanting one drawn 15 or higher (the last five winners have come from 19, 15, 17, 19, 6), it has to be the Mark Walford trained IT JUST TAKES TIME….stall 18, a previous CD winner, the other two drawn 12 & 14….a nice 14/1 winner if I’m right. He opened 25/1 so some have already thrown the runes and come up with the same answer!

RON – IT JUST TAKES TIME – 20/80

SEAN – BAY BREEZE – E.W.

3.35pm Newbury

Last years winner lines up again, and JUMBY is the current 3/1 second favourite. Now aged five he will not make the age cut as I want nowt onside older than four…and that rules out the front three on the tissue so, if trends work out we’ll have a nice priced winner here….the last pair have been 6/1 & 9/1….finger crossed.

So,,,,horses aged three/four:

  • WITCH HUNTER
  • MARBAAN
  • MOSTABSHIR
  • NEW ENDEAVOUR
  • MAMMAS GIRL

We get no help from weight ranges as all bar one has carried 9st or more so market position will hopefully give us the winner. I’ll start by telling you the last six winners sat 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 on the tissue but, we have only had that one winning favourite. Eight though were front five so…:

  • MARBAAN
  • MOSTABSHIR

If I’m right, a 3-y-o wins it.

How to split that pair? Well, what I’m seeing is that our winner usually arrives having finished outside the front three last time out. Three of the last four winners had finished 8th, seventh and JUMBY last year arrived having finished 14th of 21 at Royal Ascot.

Taking that as Gospel, my winner is MOSTABSHIR, blinkered first time tomorrow and around 7/1, my 20/80.

RON – MOSTABSHIR – 20/80

SEAN – MOSTABSHIR – E.W.

OMMS

The best of last weeks OMMS

  • ANGELIC APPEAL – 14/1 > 8/1 – WON 8/1
  • GRAPPA NONINO – 20/1 > 9/1 – WON 10/1
  • MORTLAKE 20/1 > 10/1 – WON 15/2

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – KLONDIKE – 20/80

SEAN – MUSIC SOCIETY – E.W.

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