Atzeni, should gambles be investigated and, fancy a job?

0
The World of Sport
The World of Sport
Atzeni, should gambles be investigated and, fancy a job?
Loading
/

Sean has his HBF hat on in today’s Podcast and is looking to introduce new blood into the Horse Bettors Forum….fancy the gig? Sean explains the type of people he needs on board.

Andrea Atzeni is now off to pastures new and we bring into that part of our discussion football, and the crazy salaries being offered to players by the Saudi clubs.

The 28/1 > Evens gamble landed in Ireland….should these things be investigated?

Then we get stuck into this weekends racing….poor quality stuff but, we’ve given it our best shot.

Below you have the text of my side of the conversation, for our hard of hearing members.

Saturday Racing

1.50pm Sandown

Only two previous running’s of this race so I’m going to have to try and do a “Camacho” and see if trainer trends can sort this out, as they did a few weeks back.

We have 11 going to post right now and funnily enough, the trainer with the best level stake profit at this track, in races of this ilk, is William Stone and his entry, FINAL WATCH, is currently the only runner without a jockey booked.

Stone has a level £1 stake profit of £16.60 and has enjoyed three winners from the six runners in races run over seven furlongs here.

It’s probably nothing but the first two running’s of this race have gone to the favourite.

I cannot put my finger on a definitive selection working as I do but I’ll give it the Camacho

RON – FINAL WATCH – 20/80

SEAN – YOUARENOTFORGIVEN – E.W.

2.05pm Beverley

This is the first running of this event, so I’ve got diddly again I’m afraid.

Applying my “Camacho” system I can only point you in the direction of two horses:

  • DANCING IN PARIS
  • DREAM HARDER

Both are trained by Ian Williams, who is the only trainer with a runner in here, showing a positive £1 level stake profit = £10…..four winners from 20 runners in races run over 12 furlongs at Beverley.

Currently 11/2 & 13/2 respectively, it’s a dutch and if pushed I’ll say DREAM HARDER 20/80 because he’s ridden by Ben Curtis who has ridden 11 winners from his 51 rides in the last two weeks, compared to that of Cam Hardie, who has not managed a solitary winner from 33 rides and that’s “cold” in my book.

In fact, Cam has had 60 rides in the last 22 days and not a sausage….currently sitting third in the cold jockeys list behind Charlie Bennett and Hayley Turner.

RON – DREAM HARDER – 20/80

SEAN – AIMERIC – E.W.

2.25pm Sandown

We have 10 going to post so an e.w. play potentially….and I say potentially because finding the winner in recent years has required the assistance of Beelzebub. It was 18/1 last year, 14/1 in 2020 and 12/1 in 2019.

This is only won by horses aged three (6), or four (4). So, if that holds up we get rid of two, POTAPOVA (who won this last year as a 4-y-o), and ROMAN MIST.

When POTAPOVA won it last year, that was the third winner of this in the last 10 years, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. Tomorrow Ryan Moore rides….and he has ridden two of those three winners for the trainer.

Weight ranges I’ll pin down to 8st 10lb – 9st 1lb because that scoops up five of the last eight winners and the market position of the last 10 winners suggests that if you sit front three in the market you have a near 70% chance of success so, putting that little lot through the centrifuge, one of:

  • COPPICE
  • MIDNIGHT MILE

….wins it.

COPPICE trades favourite and whilst we have four of them winning between between 2013 – 2018 inclusive, only one of the last four has managed to hit the frame.

The filly is also trained by Gosden who has sent two for this in the last decade, placed with one.

Richard Fahey trains MIDNIGHT MILE and he has sent two for it, winning it with LADY’S FIRST, who dead-heated with Sir Michael Stoute’s INTEGRAL in 2013.

Only rated 1lb off COPPICE, and yet nearly double the price….I’ll go 20/80 the Fahey runner.

I should tell you that only one of the last eight runners came from a stall higher than four, and that five of the last six winners broke from stall three….on Saturday MYSTERIOUS LOVE, currently 40/1, comes from the lucky box.

RON – MIDNIGHT MILE – 20/80

SEAN – NIBRAS ANGEL – E.W.

2.40pm Beverley

Looking at age groupings for this seven runner Listed race, and you have been given the task of untying the Gordian knot.

The last seven winners have been aged 5, 10, 11, 7, 6, 7, 8….I guess we can say nine have been aged older than five and it’s something:

  • APOLLO ONE
  • JUDICIAL
  • TIS MARVELLOUS
  • ELEGANT ERIN

The last two would be considered heroes under the NH code as they are aged 11 and nine….and with all 10 winners in the last decade carrying 9st or more, we lose the bottom one….40/1 anyway and wasting my time it is.

The other three qualify though and with just market position to work with now I have to plump for front two on the tissue because they account for six of the last nine winners and so my winner is:

  • APOLLO ONE

That horse was my selection for the Stewards Cup at Goodwood and got done ¾ of a length into second place. He has seconditis for sure and has not seen a winners enclosure on turf since August 2020.

I’ll go 20/80 but only expect to be getting a bean off the “80” because he definitely likes to see at least one backside in front of him.

RON – APOLLO ONE – 20/80

SEAN – SILKY WILKIE

3.00pm Sandown

A lovely 14 runner handicap to plot a course through and let’s hope the weather forecast is correct and we do not get our Saturday Summer Monsoon again this weekend.

Age groupings are no use I’m afraid, the last 10 winners have been aged three (3), four (3) or five (4)….I guess I could say we’ll bin the three year olds as only one of that age group has succeeded in the last six years so, I will…..first shortlist is of those aged four, or five.

  • EAGLES WAY
  • GAASSEE
  • LORD PROTECTOR
  • GROUND BREAKER
  • STAY WELL
  • GREAT MAX
  • EDUCATOR
  • KITSUNE POWER
  • DUAL IDENTITY

Weight ranges very much suggest that you want to be carrying south of 9st 1lb as only one winner has carried more in the last decade so….:

  • KITSUNE POWER
  • DUAL IDENTITY

I’m down to a pair and if either of those two succeed, a lot of Placepot players will be binning their vouchers as they are 25/1 and 14/1 respectively.

DUAL IDENTITY is a previous CD winner, one of just two races from 19 attempts, that he has managed to win on turf.

I’ll put him up as a 20/80 with no confidence at all and hope he knows the trends say he’s “it”!

RON – DUAL IDENTITY – 20/80

SEAN – DASHING ROGER – E.W.

3.20pm Chester

A long distance Listed race, just six runners and most definitely three year olds have been favoured in recent years, winning three of the last four renewals and five of the last nine.

Our winner is generally found front two on the tissue….four of the last five winners there….with three winning favourites.

The only horse that fits is MILITARY ORDER, who went off at 9/2 to win the Derby in June but finished 24 length last of the 14.

Like I say, he “fits” but would I take 6/5? I doubt it. Especially seeing that Beckett, who has saddled the last two winners of this and has been firing in loads of winners in August, trains the second favourite LONE EAGLE. Neither though has attempted this trip previously….it’s a six runner minefield I don’t fancy trying to walk across but I’ll put up the favourite because it’s for the Podcast!

RON – MILITARY ORDER

SEAN – MILITARY ORDER

3.38pm Sandown

If the winner isn’t front two on the tissue here, I will not be naming the winner. We have had seven winning favourites and three that were trading second favourite, winning this in the last decade. We actually had six successive winning favourites between 2016 and 2021 inclusive and the biggest SP returned by a winner since 2016, is 9/4.

That means one of these two wins it….:

  • STARLORE
  • MORTLAKE

With a shrug I’ll just suggest I give that favourites stat a cuddle and put up STARLORE. Ryan Moore rode when he won here on racecourse debut and he’s up again.

He beat an Appleby trained favourite that day, that has gone on to win twice since including a Listed race at Salisbury so, that does me.

RON – STARLORE

SEAN – AABLAN

OMMS

  • ROOST – 16/1 > 8/1 – WON 15/2 (Ffos Las last Friday)
  • SPERIAMO – 20/1 > 8/1 – WON 14/1 (Newmarket last Friday)
  • CAVERN CLUB – 10/1 > 13/2 – WON 3/1 (Newmarket 5-00 last Friday)

Something for the weekend

RON – MIDNIGHT MILE – 20/80

SEAN – MILITARY ORDER / AABLAN – DOUBLE

- PLAY EUROMILLIONS! -
Previous articleLady riders, the Arc winner, the Gambling Commision and seven winners tomorrow!
Next articleSean Trivass met with the Sports minister….what did he say? Oh, and seven winners for Saturday!