Plenty of chat about Premierisation and Media Rights, praise for Joe Anderson and Ron & Sean discuss six races for tomorrow
Please find below their selections with a little something for the weekend at the bottom!
Only had eight previous running’s of this race and six of those eight winners were front three on the tissue….but as we only have four runners now, that’s not a great help to anyone!
How am I supposed to use my way of working here?
I’m seeing more second favourites winning than favourites, currently 3-2.
Kim Bailey trains the second favourite here, TRELAWNE and he has only sent one for this previously, NEWTIDE, who won in 2020….but Kim is in awful form right now and has the lowest %age RTF figures of the four trainers having one in here.
Olly Murphy has the best, 55%, but his entry is the outsider of the four on 8/1, having opened 5/1
If Kim’s horses were in form, I’d be all over TRELAWNE as the horse is a lovely 4-6 ground, and 2-2 trip, whereas the favourite, COLONEL HARRY, is already 0-1 trip.
It’s a “Podcast purposes only” selection….TRELAWNE….29 runners and 30 days since Kim last had a winner, and he’s 0-13 in the last two weeks….
RON – TRELAWNE – 2ND 13/8
SEAN – COLONEL HARRY – WON 5/4
CSF = £3.66
Only seven going to post I’m afraid so even though we have plenty of back history here, it won’t take a second to arrive at a potential play.
I’m looking for a seven year old, carrying more than 11st, and front three on the tissue and the only qualifier is LATITUDE.
A previous course and distance winner, his trainer is in proper form having had a double at Doncaster a couple of days ago.
Seven runs over fences to date, only once out of the first three, and that was in an amateur riders race at Cheltenham in November.
Mel has made sure she has Alex Edwards back on board….and he rode the horse when it won over course and distance in May of last year.
The horse prefers a decent surface and it’s currently good to soft but rumour is it’ll be good ground by tomorrow and that’s the surface he won on in May.
RON – LATITUDE – 3RD 3/1
SEAN – FLEGMATIK – WON 7/2
I thought we might get a decent field for this race but only eight are turning up.
One of those eight is the horse that Cheltenham Profiling turned up as the winner of the final of this race back in 2022, THIRD WIND @ 25/1….but that was the last time we saw him and he’s been off 667 days.
It’s no use trying to fully profile an eight runner race as we know straight away which age groups we want, market position, etc….and here we want to be looking at horses aged six or seven, we have no definite weight bias….we’ve horses winning carrying everything from 10st 1lb to 11st 12lb, with everything in between, in the last decade but, for sure, with only three winners priced bigger than 7/1 in those same 10 years and only one bigger than 5/1 in the last six years, we want a six or seven year old, trading front two on the tissue (five of the last six were), and that horse is MEL MONROE, who travels over from Ireland, representing Gordon Elliott.
That’s my selection
RON – MEL MONROE
SEAN – MEL MONROE
They have moved the original off time forward by two minutes, now 2-07pm instead of 2-05pm….thank God for that, I don’t know how I would have managed had it gone off at 2-05pm.
Anyway, five go to post, and again, it’s a simple age/weight/market position call and our winner is BANBRIDGE…..he’s an eight year old….and four of the last five winners were aged eight.
He is carrying less than less than 11st 7lb, as eight of the last 10 winners….and he trades favourite….as have seven of the last 10 winners.
They are trying to get us to look at the dead cat on the table, that is EDWARDSTONE going up in trip but if I do that, I miss which cup they put the pea under!
I can have 12/5 about a horse that fits like a glove, or 11/4 about the dead cat….I see the pea!
Obviously last year’s winner PIC D’ORHY has to be considered, not least because he’s rated 7lb superior to BANBRIDGE but only has to give him 3lb, but he opened 9/4 and has eased to 11/4.
RON – BANBRIDGE – WON 3/1
SEAN – PIC D’ORHY – 2ND 5/2
CSF = £11.02
Only five runners but it should make for a good watch, if not a good punt!
In theory APPLE AWAY should beat GREY DAWNING if official weights mean diddly but, the last time they met, GREY DAWNING beat APPLE AWAY by 14 lengths, giving the mare 7lb.
Is 3lb enough to make up that deficit?
The third favourite is BROADWAY BOY, who is the best horse in the race on official numbers, 6lb better than GREY DAWNING….but only has to give him 2lb….but he’s a six year old and eight of that age have tried to win this in the last 10 years….only one has placed.
I like horses that have jumped around Warwick because it is a proper jumpers track….GREY DAWNING has won here over hurdles but….will he stay three miles?
He fits by way of age, sex, and market position….he’s second favourite and five of the last 10 such horses have won this, including four of the last six.
RON – GREY DAWNING – WON 5/4
SEAN – APPLE AWAY – 2ND 4/1
CSF = £6.80
A cracker of a race….one to warm the cockles after the rubbish we’ve been working with all this last week because of flu jabs and lousy ground.
Let’s do this proper.
I have 19 runners, and to get my first shortlist I want to work with horses aged six and seven, because they have produced seven of the last 10 winners, and four of the last five:
- NEMEAN LION
- MARK OF GOLD
- IMPOSE TOI
- TEDDY BLUE
- KING ALEXANDER
- HERMINO AA
- IRISH HILL
- SERIOUS OPERATOR
I have got rid of eight there….now onto weight ranges. Only four winners in the last decade have carried more than 10st 11lb with four of the last five carrying 10st 11lb or less so anything in that list above carting more than my maximum get shifted out now:
- SERIOUS OPERATOR
Four of the last five winners have returned a double figure SP and that includes a 66/1 winner in 2021 but generally speaking I would suggest we don’t look for anything bigger than 16/1 as that would be “top end” without that 2021 shocker.
Of that trio only MOTHILL qualifies – currently 16/1 – and he will be ridden by the guy that gave that one the ride of the century the other day, Joe Anderson.
I’ll go 20/80.
RON – MOTHILL – 20/80
SEAN – IMPOSE TOI
I could have selected one of a 100 this week but have settled on the following:
- KATS BOB – 20/1 > 17/2 – WON 5/1
- SAMMY’S GUARANTEE – 33/1 > 10/1 – WON 14/1
- BUZZ BOX – 100/1 > 11/1 – WON 18/1 (DH)
Something for the weekend
RON – AN IRISH DOUBLE – BANBRIDGE / MEL MONROE
SEAN – APPLE AWAY