Today’s Podcast is choc full of racing opinion, five races tomorrow discussed and we’ve a twist forecast suggestion in the big handicap at Ascot….you just never know!
Below, for our hard of hearing readers, is the text of my side of our conversation regarding the races tomorrow, plus our “Something For The Weekend” suggestions….Sean has gone off-piste yet again!
Saturday Racing
1.50pm Ascot
A juvenile Group 3 race that sees three of the front four on the tissue having raced once, won once and a favourite that has raced twice, lost twice.
It is then 10/1 bar that quartet, with that favourite strong in the market, 2/1 > 13/8….but already 0-2 trip, 0-1 track.
Three of the last five winners have returned SP’s of 25/1, 15/2 & 16/1….the unexpected does happen!
This has a much punting appeal for me as a bushtucker trial….in fact, goats eyeball for lunch, or a bet here? Something to ponder.
Seriously though, history dictates that we want to be working with a horse with at least two runs on the board and trading no bigger than 16/1 so for me, the winner is one of:
- SIMMERING
- AVIATION TIME
- BETTY CLOVER
The years 2014 – 2017 inclusive saw four consecutive winning favourites, with the second favourite winning in 2018….but like I say, we’ve seen a big swing in the last five years towards bigger priced horses and I’m thinking that if all eight go to post, you could do a lot worse than have a 20/80 BETTY CLOVER here.
Only beaten just over five lengths in the Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, and her trainer, Eve Johnson-Houghton is 5-19 with her runners in this type of race, at Ascot, over the last 10 years….she also has a whopping great level £1 stake profit of £28.70 so the 14/1, if all eight go to post and we don’t get a deluge of rain (we do not want the word soft in the going description), we should get a run for the dongs.
RON – BETTY CLOVER – 20/80
SEAN – SIMMERING
2.25pm Ascot
I got the winner of this last year….don’t ask me how because it wouldn’t fit my stats and trends now!
Another Group 3 and historically, the 3-y-o’s just edge it.
No winning favourite since 2015 and in the intervening period we’ve seen three winners returning SP’s of 14/1, 11/1 and 12/1, but it feels like things have calmed down again now….last two winners both coming home @ 10/3
This all suggests the winner is one of DEVOTED QUEEN or SOPRANO….close to being 3/1 joint favourites as I type.
DEVOTED QUEEN is unbeaten in three starts and I have no idea how good she is but her trainer, Charlie Appleby has a stunning record in this kind of race here….10 winners from 62 entries, bringing home a level stake profit of +16.28pts
With so little to go on, that’s the main stat I apply.
RON – DEVOTED QUEEN
SEAN –
3.00pm Ascot
Welcome to my world! A magical 18 runner handicap and the horse I punted @ 22/1 for the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, ORAZIO, has been punted from 13/2 > 9/2f since this market opened. Should have won….didn’t….beaten a head and a neck finishing like a bullet.
What does Profiling say?
Eight of the last 10 winners have been aged four (4), or five (4), so they make up my first shortlist:
- MAKE ME KING
- ORAZIO
- METAL MERCHANT
- BILLYJOH
- DIVINE LIBRA
- DANCING MAGIC
- AALTO
- NEW IMAGE
- EMINENCY
Weight ranges next…..I want nothing in my next list carrying more than 9st 7lb and I may need to revisit this if I have a couple to split at the end. Nothing, in the last decade, has won carrying more so:
- METAL MERCHANT
- BILLYJOH
- DIVINE LIBRA
- DANCING MAGIC
- AALTO
- NEW IMAGE
- EMINENCY
I have lost ORAZIO there…so be it.
Down to seven and next I’ll pick my way through the returned SP’s of out last 10 winners. For such a competitive race the fact that four of the last nine winners went off favourite, another returned second favourite so, the market tends to call it right. We have had four winners coming home at 33/1, 50/1, 20/1, 16/1 (last year), but it something like that wins tomorrow, I lose money because I’m looking front five on the tissue. That would have netted me six of the last nine winners:
- BILLYJOH
- AALTO
- NEW IMAGE
Three left and that include my favourite horse of 2024 so far, AALTO. A top rated 40/1 runner up in May and I managed to nab a little 33/1 before he won the Bunbury Cup recently….I’ll be dutching, for sure as all three are drawn right….you need a double figure box to race from, only two of the last 10 winners raced from a stall lower than 11.
Which for my Profiling selection? I’m going with BILLYJOH. It’s that revisit to the weights again and as seven of the last 10 winners carried more than 9st, and he is the only one doing so tomorrow….he’s “it”.
RON – BILLYJOH – 20/80
SEAN – AALTO – E.W.
3.15pm York
A great shame only four now go to post for £76k worth of first prize money. It’s pointless my telling you that the winner is usually front three on the tissue…but it is….ditto my telling you the winner usually returns a single figure price, as they all trade single numbers.
I cannot profile, or apply stats accurately to such races and for sure we’ll see a false pace.
What I’ll tell you is, I have been waiting to see PASSENGER race again since he won that Chester Group 2 very easily back in May and here he’s trading the 6/4….and supported…favourite.
Someone asked me for a Tote 10 To Follow Banker when they were making their entries and I said, “PASSENGER”
I hope tomorrow proves me right and he’s my selection based on nothing other than pure bias.
RON – PASSENGER
SEAN – PASSENGER
3.40pm Ascot
The big one and by crikey we’ve seen some proper races in the past. It’s getting easier now though as the three year olds taking this in are not “all that”.
I’ll not be here long with this one as I have to work as is usual.
I’m looking for a horse older than three, no older than five, weight ranges do not apply so I have to work with the tissue next and with seven of the last 10 winners returning an SP of 7/2 or shorter….class generally comes to the fore in these races….it’s AUGUSTE RODIN.
He fits the trends spot on and if he turns up…never guaranteed with him….he’ll win tomorrow.
RON – AUGUSTE RODIN
SEAN – SUNWAY E.W.
OMMS
- MARITIME LADY – 5/1 > 3/1 > 7/2 – WON 11/4
- MADAME DE SVIGNE – 6/1 > 5/2 > 7/2 – WON 9/2
- SIR GABRIAL – 12/1 > 9/1 > 7/1 – WON 11/2
Something for the weekend
RON – BILLYJOH – 20/80
SEAN – SEAGOLAZO (Chester 2-10pm, Saturday)
