The BHA get both barrels, Edwardstone and Irish raiders!

1. Edwardstone is back – but can he spring an upset in the Champion Chase? 

Not a snowball in hells chance. Connections know his number is up as far as Championship races are concerned, which was why they tried him over further at Kempton in January. 

He won a four runner race in which two failed to finish, and he beat a 144 rated handicapper as easily as he should have done. 

He’s officially rated 9lb lower than EL FABIOLO, an unbeaten 7-y-o who is still improving.  

Third place money is anyone’s come March but if the front two on the tissue stand up, that’s all he’s playing for. 

2. Irish eyes are smiling – but are they really as all conquering over here as it sometimes seems (and we aren’t just talking Cheltenham)? 

Very much depends on the grade of racing. Midweek they are having to send ordinary horses here because they cannot get a run over there.  

But look at the quality meetings, starting with Cheltenham in November. There they won the Amateur jockeys Chase, the Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle, and the Bumper. 

New Years Day at Cheltenham….STUMPTOWN wins the Paddy Power Handicap, and BOB OLINGER took the Relkeel pulling a cart. 

Festival Trials Day….CAPODANNO, LOSSIEMOUTH and NOBLE YEATS won the three biggest prizes on the day.  

3. Low Sun – is three out of nine hurdles something punters should just accept or are there realistic alternatives?  

That was obscene. You and I have been batting this one backwards and forwards every day this week….I’ve probably done your head in….but this simply cannot be right.  

I pointed out to you how vital jumping is, in determining the result of a race. We had one run in Ireland this week and the winner won by just under four lengths.  

RacingTV now has a system in place that tells them immediately how much jumping impacted on a result, and that Irish winner gained so much over the rest of the field at each hurdle…a total of 18 lengths that winner achieved during the entire race. So, if you take away his advantage….that being his ability to jump….you obtain a false result. 

This race at Plumpton, that saw six hurdles removed, was won by a horse that had raced once and unseated his jockey. As a punter, I’ve looked at that race and seen hurdles as a potential negative in his case. 

Put simply, there is enough that can go wrong during a race to give punters enough to worry about, than for them to then have 2/3rds of the obstacles removed rendering the race a total farce. 

What do you then do with the form of that race? It’s worthless. 

I’ve said before, it would take an IT expert 15 minutes to introduce a checkbox system onto an online betting slip, to offer a punter the option to void their bet in the event this kind of thing happens. I would check that box every single time because I work out how a race will be run, which horses can jump, which are iffy and will lose lengths during a race, and I’ve placed my bet long before the sun becomes an issue. 

If I know I’ve backed a plodder, that jumps like a buck and makes three or four lengths on others in the race, at each fence, would I bet it to win a Bumper? That’s a rhetorical question….no answer required! 

You received a communication, which we cannot discuss just yet, that raised more questions than it answered. But that is just typical of where we are right now.  

By all means run the race if connections are happy for it to go ahead….they’ve paid money to enter, the owner has funded his trainer and staff getting there, so they might as well have a shot….but give punters the option not to let their bets ride, if that is what they choose to do. 

What would they do with the Gold Cup if six or more fences had to come out because of low sun, and another two or three because of false ground on the take off or landing side?  

Racecourses know the potential for low sun and the times the sun rises and sets are written in stone….work around those times?  

The whole shooting match is run by amateurs right now.  

I’d best stop there because I’ve steam coming from my ears now…. 

Saturday Racing  

2.25pm Ascot 

This should be a cracking good race, with 16 set to go to post. 

It’s a race with tons of back history but my usual starting point of age groupings for Profiling is pretty much null. The last four winners have been aged 4, 5, 6, 8….I guess I’ll go with the six year olds because they have won four of the last eight but without a doubt, I could be binning the winner and placed horses here! The front three on the tissue are 7, 7, 5! 

• TEDDY BLUE 
• ISSAM 
• OSTEND 
• IRISH HILL 
• MOTHILL 
• IN THE AIR 
• ARQOOD 

Weight ranges next and with seven of the last 10 winners carrying less than 11st (and the last four), I’d not want to go forward with horses carrying more than 10st 13lb….and would you believe it, they all fit! 

Market position next then….the last 10 winners have been sited 2, 1, 3, 2, 3, 0, 4, 6, 1, 1 on the tissue and so that suggests we need a fancied horse onside, certainly in the front four on the tissue and the only qualifier is IRISH HILL 

He has won or placed in 11 of his 16 runs over hurdles, has raced at Ascot twice, finishing third, then winning this race last year. 

Freddie Gingell takes over tomorrow and he has ridden the horse just once previously, beaten a head in a Fontwell Class 3 back in November 2022. 

I’ll put him up as a 20/80 at the 8/1 he currently trades at. 

Be worth checking the Ratings for this race tomorrow. 

RON – IRISH HILL – 20/80 

SEAN –  

2.40pm Haydock 

I’m loathe to even look at a race here because not a single one will be run as it should be on account of what will be bottomless ground.  

I certainly would back a horse that has no winning form on heavy ground and I’d bin all trends because of it. 

Last year this race was run on good to soft, and WAKOOL won @ 6/1….tomorrow he’s 20/1, and that’s because he is already 0-2 on heavy.  

MARTHA BRAE….25/1 and 0-4 on heavy. Both RED RISK and the current favourite BOTOX HAS are 0-1 on heavy. 

The two to look at….I’d only look, not bet….are SOUNDS RUSSIAN who is 2-2 on heavy….but only 1-5 trip….and BUTCH, who is 1-1 on heavy and, more significantly, 3-3 at the trip. 

For Podcast purposes only I’ll say BUTCH but I would back it. 

RON – BUTCH 

SEAN –  

3.00pm Ascot 

Lovely….a 10 runner handicap and here experience definitely counts.  

Six of the last 10 winners have been aged 10, three of the last four winners….aged 10….five of the last seven winners…aged 10. 

So I’m looking for a 10 year old, in a 10 runner race and four of them fit that bill: 

• SHAN BLUE 
• RAPPER 
• DO YOUR JOB 
• TORN AND FRAYED 

Weight ranges next and this requires a pretty broad brush stroke as I’d pin this down to horses carrying between 10st 7lb and 11st 10lb….five of the last nine carried 11st or more….but four of the last five carried less than 11st so all four come forward please…: 

• SHAN BLUE 
• RAPPER 
• DO YOUR JOB 
• TORN AND FRAYED 

Market position should sort this out….eight of the last 10 winners were found in the front four on the tissue….but only one winning favourite and so I want horses sitting 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th favourite at the off….at the off….most important these days as the markets perform somersaults overnight these days but, right now the only qualifier is SHAN BLUE. 

The Skelton’s won this with a 10 year old in 2021 and this horse went off just 10/1 to win the first of ALLAHO’s Ryanair Chases in 2022. 

He then ran home second in the Betway Chase at Aintree and must have suffered an injury after that as he wasn’t seen again for 261 days. One run again on Boxing Day that same year and pulled up….then missing for 327 days. 

Two runs earlier this season resulted in two more letter P’s before he visited Ascot in December, when they put cheekpieces on for the first time, over a trip on the short side for the horse but, he finished 3^rd. 

Back up in trip, pieces still on tomorrow….I’ll go 20/80 

RON – SHAN BLUE 20/80 

SEAN –  

3.15pm Haydock 

Another race I’ll not even attempt to Profile….nearly three and a half miles on that ground will see few getting home so my way in here would be, which have won on heavy, and which have won at this kind of trip.  

I don’t even rated races over this kind of distance because so few can get home. 

We have three names: 

• HIGHLAND HUNTER 
• IWILLDOIT 
• MY SILVER LINING 

I’d drop the first named like a hot spud….not won a race of any description since 2021 so it’s one of IWILLDOIT, or MY SILVER LINING for again, Podcast purposes only. 

HIGHLAND HUNTER opened 10/1….you can have 16’s now and I guess most punters see what I have seen. 

One is an eight year old – MY SILVER LINING – and they have won four of the last 10. 

IWILLDOIT is an 11 year old and they have won three of the last 10 but, he carries 12st and no winner I can find has carried that weight to victory in this race. 

Has to be MY SILVER LINING based on what I have, but again, I won’t be betting here. 

RON – MY SILVER LINING – PLACE ONLY 

SEAN –  

OMMS 

1. KAMAXOS – 14/1 > 4/1 – WON 7/2 

2. BRETNEY – 12/1 > 10/1 – WON 16/1 

3. FOREST FAIRY – 7/1 > 9/4 – WON 10/3 

Something for the weekend 

RON – IRISH HILL & SHAN BLUE – E.W. DOUBLE 

SEAN –