For our hard of hearing members you have my side of today’s Podcast below but remember, by visiting our YouTube channel, of listening on iTuines Podcasts, you will have access to a full transcription.
- The generation game- an interesting series of articles in the Racing Post, do we agree with them or differ?
I’ve not had time to read those articles fully yet but I remember this Generation Z thing being announced years ago….Josh Apiafi was saying in 2021 how important it is to attract new blood to the sport, in particular those born between the years 1995 – 2010 or thereabouts. They had a plan in place….what happened to it?
The biggest problem, from my scan reading of the comments made, is cost. If you are trying to get say, students to go racing, they don’t have the kind of money needed for such a day out.
You sent me a message about the fact a Prosecco could only be bought by the bottle, and they wanted £57 for it? How mad is that? You wouldn’t pay that at a restaurant….so why a racecourse?
For me, all sports need a superstar, a big name, and since FRANKEL went down the back of the sofa, we haven’t had one….and my feeling is, that even if we did, racing is so scared to promote itself properly right now, the only people that would know about it are us doing this, listening to this, or reading my Newsletters.
I’ve got some cracking ideas….well, I think so….but at this moment in time those inside the game are so busy fighting each other, they don’t have the time to put racing on the front page.
Even if we had a hero….human or equine….nobody is going to pay nearly £60 for a bottle of fizzy water.
- The fragmentation of racing power – how can the sport ever move forward with the BHA seemingly having their hands tied?
It cannot….simple as that. It’s like football….the teams at the top are reluctant to give the teams in the lower leagues more than a few scraps to feed on. They would sooner see racecourses disappear, than look at how the finance is structured, because they don’t want to lose any of their pie.
What’s the answer? Tote Monopoly. How they get that done is above my pay grade….but it needs doing….and about 50% of the racing calendar needs culling too….I looked at next years fixture list and am totally in agreement with trainers that are screaming from the rooftops that it’s no good saying we’ll sort this at the end of 2025….it needs doing now.
- Arc antepost – do we have any opinions bright and early for the 2024 renewal?
I’ve not seen a better horse than LOOK DE VEGA this season but ECONOMICS threw his hat into the ring yesterday….I’m not sure CITY OF TROY won’t give it a swerve but the market right now says 11/4 LOOK DE VEGA, 8/1 bar.
Saturday Racing
Newbury 1.50pm
Only five runners left in, and we have an odds on favourite in AL AASY who, statistically is as likely to lose, as he is win.
He has won eight of his 19 races, so you see what I mean!
Trends say he cannot win….but they also say only one of SUMO SAM or GO DADDY can….but then, market trends say they cannot win.
I’ll explain….eight of the last nine winners were aged three, or four years of age but, eight of the last nine winners were sitting from three on the tissue, and we’ve had six winning favourites in the last eight years, including the last three….and, looking at AL AASY’s form figures, when he wins a race, he generally follows it up with another. The only time that has not happened to date was after a Listed race win back in 2022 during which he must have suffered an injury because he was off the track for more than 12 months….420 days to be precise.
Given his profile, he is the right favourite but I’m not sure he’s an odds on shot.
He is the highest rated horse in the race but he has to give weight to everything in the race and he’s actually 1lb wrong with the second favourite AL QAREEM, and 3lb wrong with SUMO SAM….who is a 4-y-o sitting front three on the tissue….a beaten favourite on seasonal debut, she has since undergone a wind-op and the Cole’s have book Tom Marquand to ride.
She won a Group 2 in September last year and was then sent for a Group 1 in France, where she completely bombed out and was missing for 217 days afterwards.
I do not like this race one bit. I can see AL AASY winning, but I can see him losing, too….so I’m just going to take a flyer and suggest a place only punt SUMO SAM with as much confidence in it landing a profit, as I’d have saying I could tightrope walk across the Grand Canyon in a hurricane. She’s 7/1 right now….take three places on Betfair….you might need it!
RON – SUMO SAM – PLACE ONLY
SEAN – AL QAREEM
Ripon 3.20pm (Handicap)
This has been a lucky race for Connor Beasley, who has ridden three of the last eight winners. He must be somewhere else tomorrow and on a promise, because he has no ride this time around.
We have had 2 x 3-y-o’s win this in the last nine years but they went off the 4/1f in 2015 and last year SOPHIA’S STARLIGHT went in at 7/1 fourth favourite so, I am going to work with horses aged 5, 6 7 because the three 3-y-o’s tomorrow are currently 16/1, 20/1 and 33/1.
Running with the age grouping suggested would have found us the other eight winners….five year olds have won six….so that might be my tie-breaker if required.
My first shortlist therefore contains:
- MANILA SCOUSE
- WOBWOBWOB
- EMPEROR SPIRIT
- THE TURPINATOR
- INGRA TOR
- MONSIEUR KODI
Weights next, as is usual….and the last four winners have carried less than 9st but….the three before that all carried 9st or more….I’m thinking, looking at the numbers, we go 8st 7lb – 9st 1lb because I’d have nailed eight of the last 10 winners doing that:
- MANILA SCOUSE
- WOBWOBWOB
- EMPEROR SPIRIT
- THE TURPINATOR
Down to four….and did you know that in the last 10 years, 49 horses aged four have tried to win this, but only five have placed?
Finally….I hope…I can apply market position and I’m happy suggesting front five on the tissue. Six of the last 10 winners were and, we have also had four winning favourites in that same time period.
- WOBWOBWOB
Our only qualifier. He ran third in this race last season and was punted to win it, opening 10/1 on course, returning an SP of just 5/1….my feeling was that on the slower ground his double figure draw was an inconvenience….on quicker ground at Ripon you want a high draw and he’s got 15 tomorrow. Expect him to be gambled on again.
RON – WOBWOBWOB – 20/80
SEAN – MANILA SCOUSE – E.W.
Newbury 3.35pm
Another Group race that offers e.w. punters nowt, just seven going to post here.
It is not strong on trends and even if it were, having just seven runners limits me, as it did with the first race we discussed.
Mt selection is going to be ENGLISH OAK….I have to forgive him losing me money at Goodwood when he was beaten seven lengths by AUDIENCE but reading Ed Walker’s report on that run I think I can absolve him. He shifted a shoe, which caused pressure on his foot and he could finish his race off properly. He only lost third place to course specialist KINROSS in the final furlong and as his trainer says, “all things considered, that was a very brave run”.
I can say that historically, you want to be with a 4-y-o trading second, third, or fourth on the tissue and he is the only qualifier….four year olds have won seven of the last 10 running’s, and only one favourite has pulled it off in that period, too.
He is a 4-y-o trading second favourite and my go to horse here.
I can tell you that the horse that won this in 2022, JUMBY, is 33/1 > 16/1 since the market opened but it smells like an adjustment to me, not a punt.
RON – ENGLISH OAK
SEAN – FOLGARIA – E.W.
Curragh 4.00pm
If CONTINUOUS fails here, they’ll be packing him off to the sheds. He is currently best priced ½, and it’s then 13/2 bar.
On official ratings he is head, shoulders and tail above these, officially more than a stone better than the pair sitting second and third favourite. TARAWA is 15lb wrong with CONTINUOUS, yet gets just 3lb.
The second favourite….just….is CAUGHT U LOOKING who gets 10lb but that still puts him 5lb wrong.
The fourth favourite is TRUSTYYOURINSTINCT, who races off level weights but, in effect, give the favourite 12lb….and they will only give you a best priced 8/1 that he can do it?
If CONTINUOUS produces the form of his Arc fifth to ACE IMPACT tomorrow, he wins.
RON – CONTINUOUS
SEAN – CONTINUOUS
Curragh 4.35pm
It looks like another O’Brien odds on shot wins here. GROSVENOR SQUARE currently a best priced 4/5 with the winner of the County Hurdle (which I found for members @ 12/1….bragging rights!!), second favourite @ 3/1, and off the track since that win.
This is why I have so little to do with Irish racing I’m afraid. The form of those behind the favourite isn’t good enough to beat him, but, would I take odds on about a horse that has only won two of his six races to date?
Put a gun to my head and I say pull the trigger…he has been used as a pacemaker more recently, when second in the Curragh Cup but he should be beating a hurdler if his nine and a half length 7th in the Irish Derby is right. He is, officially 2lb superior to ABSURDE, but gets 10lb….he should be 1/6, not 5/6….but that tells you how “iffy” this is.
RON – GROSVENOR SQUARE
SEAN – GROSVENOR SQUARE
OMMS
- LAIZEELUNCH – 12/1 > 6/1 – WON 9/1
- MEARALL – 6/1 > 6/5 – WON 11/8
- CORRIAMO – 9/1 > 11/4 – WON 2/1
Something for the weekend
RON – WOBWOBWOB – 20/80
SEAN – SHAREHOLDER (Deauville 2-30 Sunday)
