Ron and Sean chat about the ridiculous running of the Group 2 at York last Saturday, the going descriptions being provided that are anything but accurate, and Geoff’s bonkers e.w. double last Saturday….that made him a profit!
This was Ron’s side of the conversation regarding the races disected…well, discussed.
2.40pm Newmarket
A decent little Listed race that should be (hopefully), relatively simple to solve.
Three year olds have won the last five running’s, they’ve won seven of the last nine so, putting my Einstein brain into gear, I’m going to suggest a 3-y-o will probably win it.
Obviously, when a 3-y-o wins it, they carry less than 9st, and, looking back historically at the returned SP’s of those last 10 winners, it’s evident we need to look at horses trading 13/2, or shorter….nothing has returned a bigger starting price in the last decade.
So, a 3-y-o, trading shorter than 13/2 is what I want onside.
One of FAIRY GLEN or PLACE OF SAFETY wins tomorrow. The latter does not yet have an official mark as she has only raced twice so I’ll lick my finger, hold it up and see which way the wind is blowing….FAIRY GLEN is trading favourite….not good if the 2-10 stat holds up and, the Gosden’s, who train PLACE OF SAFETY have won this for the last two years running, with John Gosden also responsible for the winner in 2015 and 2017.
Fair to say they target this race and I’m going PLACE OF SAFETY 20/80 at the current price of 9/2
RON – PLACE OF SAFETY – 20/80
SEAN – PLACE OF SAFETY – E.W.
4.30pm Thirsk
When I saw this in the list and checked the status, saw “Handicap”, I thought, “lovely”….started prepping it this morning….not a single previous running of the race and that’s me light’s out, goodnight Vienna.
The only stat I can look at here is that relating to trainer form in races of this “kind”, over the last 10 years. If you had followed Tim Easterby over that period of time, backing every runner in mile handicaps at Thirsk, you’d have done your brains, a level stake loss of £241.71
However, Roger Fell is 8-62 with runners in such races, and has turned a profit of exactly £58.
He trains LA TRINIDAD, currently around the 9/1 mark and purely for Podcast purposes only, I’ll say 20/80 that one.
Let’s see how I do here in 2035, if I not in a vase on the mantelpiece.
RON – LA TRINIDAD – 20/80
SEAN – THUNDER RUN
7.40pm Hamilton
Have we ever covered an evening race before? This one is named after SOBA….and for those that do not remember the exploits of that brilliant mare, you can watch back her 1982 Stewards Cup win on YouTube….I did before we came on.
I’m pretty much in the same boat as I was with that last race as we’ve only had one previous running of this.
Funny isn’t it, last season we were mostly working with very soft/heavy ground this week….everywhere….but now they are watering like crazy…even Bath!…to keep it safe.
Only six are bothering to turn up now and the two trainers I’d earmarked as having a + level stake profit, Kevin Ryan and Julie Camacho, have both decided not to bother.
The favourite is JORDAN ELECTRICS, who must have been sipping Lorenzo’s Oil all season because he’s just kept winning….and winning….and winning. Since May I believe he has improved 20+lb, at the age of eight….there is hope for me yet!
He has raced 70 times, won or placed in 28 of them….15 wins….26 runs at this track, won or placed in 16 of them….eight wins.
I won’t be betting until I’ve finalised my Ratings tomorrow but right now, I’d not hesitate in putting him up as my Podcast selection.
RON – JORDAN ELECTRICS
SEAN – DARK VINTAGE
10.42pm Saratoga
This put a smile on my face….ish. I know you love your international racing and, to be fair, when we were digging for gold in Australia during covid, I enjoyed the research involved….even if I fell flat on my backside.
I don’t know American tracks, some names are familiar, more often than not for the wrong reasons, and it’s one of those names my eye is drawn to here.
Bob Baffert.
Eight of the last 10 winners were 4-y-o’s, nine of the last 10 winners carried 8st 12lb, and Baffert trained the winner of this two years running 2019, 2020, with 4-y-o’s carrying 8st 12lb….and they were trading short (one went of favourite), so his NATIONAL TREASURE is my “guess” here. He is the highest rated throughbred in America right now so maybe not so much of a guess?
Whatever wins this gets a “win and your in” ticket to the Breeders Cup
National Treasure is the top-ranked Thoroughbred in the weekly NTRA top thoroughbred poll based on his victories in the Met Mile at Saratoga in June and the Pegasus World Cup (G1) in January at Gulfstream. Between those wins, he was fourth in the Saudi Cup (G1). National Treasure is the leading money winner in the Whitney field and one of only two Grade 1 winners in this race and will most likely go off favourite.
If an older horse is going to scoop the near half a million first prize, it’s most likely going to be BRIGHT FUTURE.
BRIGHT FUTURE won the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year and is one of the few Grade 1 winners in the Whitney.
RON – NATIONAL TREASURE
SEAN – NATIONAL TREASURE
OMMS
I am selecting three from the Goodwood Festival
- FRENCH DUKE – 13/2 > 4/1 > 10/3 > 7/2 – WON 16/5
- BLUE PRINCE – 12/1 > 10/1 (SOLID) – WON 14/1
- MR CHAPLIN – 12/1 > 8/1 – WON 10/1
Something for the weekend
RON – LA TRINIDAD – 20/80
SEAN – THUNDER RUN
