This week we discuss affordability checks, Jet Blue, the French horse that bolted up at Cheltenham last weekend, we look at how horse racing in Asia is viewed by comparison to here at home, give Willie Mullins a big thumbs up and applaud the brilliant effort made by Tony Carroll to reach 100 winners in a calendar year!
Below is my side of the conversation but you can read a full transcript using YouTube and iTunes who provide a transcription service.
- Affordability checks at 4p a day – but let’s not forget restrictions and account closures where we are pointing the blame for a reduction in turnover
I read the sage words of the Punters Supremo in the Racing Post a few days ago….some guy called Trivass….you’ll have heard of him….and was just nodding away to everything he said….have you ordered the t-shirt yet?
Thing is, it’s not just people wanting to place a bet that are now stopping betting. To lay horses on the Exchanges in the way many were doing, you need to have a huge bank in place and those affordability checks also apply to those wanting to take those bets.
The other day I was faffing around with a BUYING MONEY SYSTEM dutch….a tenner spread across three horses and one part of the dutch was a bet of £1.38 @ 4.7 and it took me about five minutes to lay the whole £1.38….that’s ridiculous and a sign the liquidity on Betfair right now is close to zero.
Don’t anyone try to convince you this is anything to do with betting, it’s to do with money laundering, as simple as that.
- The French are coming – is Jet Blue a contender for Cheltenham come March?
You can still get 16/1 for the Albert Bartlett and that might be a good e.w. bet because that will be his target. I like THE YELLOW CLAY for that race but JET BLUE won very easily
- How to do it correctly – racing in Japan and Hong Kong is thriving – but for very different reasons
If you promote something – anything – in a positive fashion, you’ll convince the public to be positive about it. If you keep telling the public something is dirty, then it’s dirty and even those that know it’s not, will not dare say a word.
I saw the crowds over there, heard the noise they made, read your articles that told of someone trying to give baseball caps away to supporters of his horse and he attracted a crowd so big the police had to move them on….but racing here, at the moment, is a dirty word because it is associated with gambling….and gambling is, most probably, seen as close to doing deals with devils as it’s possible to imagine in this country.
- Willie Mullins wins Manager of the Year in Ireland – will that be a nudge to the powers over the Irish Sea that racing remains a popular sport
I guess winning our Champion trainer title helped but it also says racing is right up there with football, rugby etc and if the powers that be over there don’t see that, then it’s plain this downer some seem to have on our sport right now is nothing to do with the sport itself, but the betting/gambling side of it.
- Congratulations to Tony Carroll with 100 winners on the Flat in 2024 for the first time.
I thought I’d take a look at the prize money he won this year and with both win and placed prize money he scooped 757,885….last season he had 78 winners and a very similar number place, and he won £708,794 so those additional 22 winners were only worth £49,091 or £2,231.41 each.
John Gosden had 109 winners this season and nothing like as many placed horses yet won £3.8m
It’s a brilliant achievement by Tony Carroll but it highlights the difference between the prize money up top, to that being dished out at the bottom. Something needs to be done about that.
*Andy’s question!!
Saturday Racing
1.50pm Ascot
Only four runners but it’s got a very weird feel to it.
Three of the four runners have travelled over from the Emerald Isle and the joint lowest rated horse is currently favourite and that horse is also the only home trained in the field.
The winner is usually front two on the tissue….eight of the last 10 winners were so it’s either IROKO, or the Mullins trained JAMES DU BERLAIS.
The second named horse is an 8-y-o and of the eight of that age to have a crack at this, only one has managed to place. IROKO is a six year old and they have won four of the last 10 running’s, and three of the last five.
I can only run with IROKO, who was an impressive winner of the Martin Pipe at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival. He has proven to be brittle since then, just four runs between then and now but he’s a good horse when right.
I’m just concerned he might not like the thought of pain and isn’t letting himself run because he’s come home second the last twice. Oh to be able to get inside a horse’s head, eh!
RON – IROKO
SEAN – JUNGLE BOOGIE
12-55pm Haydock
Only four previous running’s of this race so working in my usual way is not possible.
Four year olds have won the last two running’s and the pair at the head of the market are both of that age plus, the winners of two of the four renewals of this race to date have sat front two on the tissue so our winner is one of HOLLOWAY QUEEN or KEYLA WOOD.
Only one winning favourite so far and purely for Podcast purposes I’ll go KEYLA WOOD but with no confidence whatsoever.
RON – KEYLA WOOD
SEAN – KEYLA WOOD
2.05pm Haydock (Handicap)
Only nine going for this and so this will not take long.
Horse aged six, seven and eight win this….they have for the last 10 years, anyway. My first shortlist comprises:
- FAMOUS BRIDGE
- EAST STREET
- REGAL BLUE
- EGBERT
Weight ranges suggest we can leave out the favourite, FAMOUS BRIDGE. He won this last year carrying 11st 9lb but is lumbered with 12st this time around and only one horse has tried to cart that weight in this race during the last decade and never managed to hit the frame.
- EAST STREET
- REGAL BLUE
- EGBERT
The market generally get’s this right and in the last 10 years we’ve seen four winners return a double figure price but five of the last seven winners came home 8/1, or shorter.
If I apply that here our winner is EAST STREET.
James Owen has employed a decent 7lb claimer in Callum Pritchard, who he also had on board this horse when he won here on December 4th, completing a hat-trick.
Around 9/2 as I type, no point going e.w. so let’s see if this works….straight win!
RON – EAST STREET
SEAN – FAMOUS BRIDGE
2.25pm Ascot
No point my trying to find age grouping stats here because what tends to happen is we get “specialists” at this trip running up sequences or coming back a couple of years after winning it, to regain the title.
Likewise, weight ranges do not help either because it’s a graded race so it’s just the markets that help us here.
The winner has been front three on the tissue in eight of the last 10 running’s but, we have had just one winning favourite in the last seven years. That means STRONG LEADER, a horse that did us a proper turn at Aintree last April, has a job on.
I also think I might have found his Achilles heel, too….Ascot is a right-handed track and connections have only ever let him go that way around once….and he only managed to place. Look at his stats going left-handed and he’s 6-12, with an additional two placed efforts.
The ground may well be soft on the day and whilst I couldn’t say he’ll not like that (he won on it last time out), I have to think his best form comes on quicker ground. His five wins on good ground have produced three wins and two places.
I’m concentrating on THE WALLPARK, and last years winner, CRAMBO.
CRAMBO is 5-5 going right-handed, never seen another horse’s backside in front of him at the finishing line when going that way around. THE WALLPARK absolutely scooted up in a really good Cheltenham Handicap in October, and he can go either way….10 runs right-handed yielding four wins and two placed runs.
I’m going to dutch the pair to beat STRONG LEADER but it’s CRAMBO @ 7/1 carrying my 20/80. In addition to his 5-5 going right-handed, he’s 2-2 at Ascot and his form figures in December read 1, P, 1….that’s my Podcast pick!
RON – CRAMBO – 20/80
SEAN – STRONG LEADER
5.45pm Wolverhampton (AW handicap)
I had a bit of a ho-ho-ho when I saw this….all weather, of an evening, only two previous running’s, usually won by a 3-y-o….and one has just been taken out, leaving eight runners.
I’m going to put up TRIUMPH OF PEACE because he’s trained by the only trainer to have won this previously, with a runner tomorrow….William Haggas.
He won this race last year with a horse wearing first time head gear (tongue tie), and this one wears a hood first time tomorrow….might be something, might be nothing but, it’s all I’ve got so, let’s pop him up for Podcast purposes only!
RON – TRIUMPH OF PEACE
SEAN – TAKE A PULL – E.W.
OMMS
- CHARLIE UBERALLES – 25/1 > 12/1 > 8/1 – WON 8/1
- SPRINGS A GIRL – 33/1 > 12/1 > 9/1 – WON 4/1
- BOBBI’S BEAUTY – 10/1 > 8/1 > 6/1 – WON 13/2
Something for the weekend
RON – CRAMBO – 20/80
SEAN – TAKE A PULL – E.W.
