Today we chat about NH racing returning to Windsor, the “near miss” at Chelmsford and offer up a hurdler and a chaser to follow this season.
One horse each to follow for the NH season – and why?
RON
Hurdler – WILLY DE HOUELLE
Chaser – INTHEPOCKET
SEAN
Hurdler – DYSART ENOS
Chaser – BUGISE SEAGULL
Saturday Racing
12.35pm Cheltenham (just Sean)
SEAN – EAST INDIA DOCK
1.58pm Navan
BOB OLINGER came back to life and won this last season, and he’s favourite to go in again tomorrow. If he pulls it off, he’ll be the first nine-year-old to win it in the last decade at the very least.
I worry about the ground for him as he’s 0-1 on it and the majority of his winning form has come on soft or heavy ground and if I were to even consider taking 6/4 I’d need my bumps feeling.
No six-year-old has won this since APPLES JADE won it for a second time back in 2018 but that was the third of that age group to win in a four year spell back then and I will be with JETARA who is 1-2 ground, 4-7 trip and 1-1 track.
Currently second favourite at around 7/2 and as they’ve only had one winner return an SP bigger than 5/1 in the last 10 years I’m happy taking the favourite on with the Jessica Harrington trained runner.
The horse is in good form right now having won a Listed hurdle at Limerick towards the end of last month, then went to the Curragh and hacked up on the flat.
The horse has won or placed in 14 of the 18 races under rules she has gone for and I’ll go for it.
RON – JETARA
SEAN – BOB OLINGER
2.20pm Cheltenham (Sean only)
SEAN – GA LAW
2.33pm Navan
Just six going to post but it’s a little cracker, isn’t it.
Henry De Bromhead has taken the last three renewals of this race, the last twice with CAPTAIN GUINNESS, who goes for the hat-trick tomorrow.
He is unbeaten in two runs at Navan but tomorrow I reckon he’ll come up just short….BANBRIDGE is the one I like. Unbeaten in two ruins on the going as currently described, won on his only previous visit to the track, and is 4-6 at the trip. He also beat CAPTAIN GUINNESS at the Punchestown Festival back in April after trying to get 2 ½ miles around Cheltenham on soft ground….he had two hopes of that ever happening, and one was Bob!
Ideal conditions tomorrow, he has won on seasonal debut for the last three years, as has the current favourite FOUND A FIFTY….never out of the first two in seven runs over fences, winning four.
It’s the ground I feel might catch him out against BANBRIDGE. He is 1-1 on it but that was over half a mile further….I’d rather be with the trip “specialist”….also….FOUND A FIFTY is 0-1 at Navan, beaten at odds on back in 2022.
RON – BANBRIDGE
SEAN – GENTLEMAN DE MEE
3.15pm Newcastle
A conundrum….eight of the last 10 winners were aged three (3), or four (5), with nine winners returning SP’s no bigger than 6/1.
If I apply those criteria then nothing tomorrow qualifies.
Weight ranges don’t apply as it’s a Listed race but the one constant I can apply is market position.
The winner has been front three on the tissue in nine of the last 10 renewals of this race and they are:
- DUBAI HONOUR
- PEACE MAN
- TYRRHENIAN SEA
I’d be inclined to drop the last named as the first pair are trained by guys with “history” in this race. John and Thady Gosden train PEACE MAN and Gosden won this twice in 2019 and 2020.
William Haggas trains DUBAI HONOUR and he has sent five for this, won with one (2014), and placed with three.
His trains the favourite tomorrow and they have won three of the last four running’s so hopefully his makes it four from the last five.
RON – DUBAI HONOUR
SEAN – DUBAI HONOUR
3.48pm Newcastle
I had a little chuckle when I looked at this from an age group perspective….the last six winners have been aged 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8….then I looked at the current tissue and saw the front five in the market are aged 3, 4, 5, 6, 5….this is, for me, going to be like playing pinata!
Six of the last 10 winners were aged five, or older, despite those past results, and whilst the current market might appear not to offer much by way of clues, it’s a fact that eight of the last 10 winners….and five of the last six, were sitting front two in the market when the stalls opened.
If I look at the front two on the tissue now, the only qualifier is ANNAF, last seen finishing a 4 ¾ length ninth of 20 in the Champion sprint at Ascot.
You would think the drop back to Listed class a heck of a bonus and because I’m rubbish at Rubik cubes, I’m just going to suggest he wins if the runes are speaking true.
RON – ANNAF
SEAN – STAINCLIFF – E.W.
OMMS
- ILOVETHENIGHTLIFE – 7/1 > 9/2 > 4/1 – WON 11/4
- BROOKIE – 8/1 > 9/2 – WON 11/2
- OLD PAGE – 20/1 > 12/1 – WON 14/1
Something for the weekend
RON – BANBRIDGE
SEAN – DUBAI HONOUR
