Underpants, Brazilians and the Scottish National winner!

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The World of Sport
Underpants, Brazilians and the Scottish National winner!
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A strange mix this week as Sean and I discuss the Grand National and, whether it is now just another long distance steeplechase handicap. We natter about affordability checks and open banking, we give some grief to racing starting at 10-00am, and ask what can be done about the Jockey Club reducing financial input by £1.5m

If you listen via Apple iTunes you can now read a full transcript of the entire Podcast so our hard of hearing members miss nothing.

Below is my side of the racing chatter….best of luck tomorrow!

Saturday Racing

Newbury 1.30pm

I’m enjoying my racing this month, Aintree was excellent, and watching the flat season finally springing into life this week has been brilliant. It does help that we’ve been betting on winners though and hopefully we can get rocking and rolling in the Podcasts now, too. Not sure we’ll beat or even equal last season’s 100+ points profit from 13 Podcasts, but we’ll give it a shot.

A nice 10 runners Group race to start with and I’ve already decided we can only work with four and five year olds as they’ve taken nine of the last 10 John Porters so, my first shortlist contains:

  • AL QAREEM
  • ALSAKIB
  • ARREST
  • CHESSPIECE
  • PEKING OPERA
  • SALT BAY

The weight ranges don’t offer much help, as tends to be the case with Group races so I’m looking now at what the markets said about the last 10 winners.

Seven of the last eight winners were in the front three on the tissue and of the six in that first list I’m happy to go forward with:

  • ARREST
  • AL QAREEM

Splitting them must simply be a case of applying official Ratings, and weight carried here. ARREST is officially 2lb superior to AL QAREEM but AL QAREEM has to give 3lb to ARREST and it’s now down to which arrives fitter for seasonal debut.

RON – ARREST

SEAN – ARREST

Newbury 2.05pm

Another Group race but just six going to post and all three year olds making seasonal debut. Which have trained on? Your guess is as good as mine. This is why I use April for “Sighters” only.

We also have a horse in here that arrives unbeaten in five, FOLGARIA, but how will the Italian form transfer to Newbury? Four wins at San Siro? I don’t know much about that place other than it’s right handed with a four furlong straight.

I can tell you with absolute certainty that a 3-y-o carrying 9st 2lb wins it and with the markets the only viable guide open to me I’m going to suggest the winner is front two on the tissue because seven of the last 10 winners were so:

  • RELIEF RALLY
  • REGAL JUBILEE

Once again splitting them comes down to official ratings and the weight they carry tomorrow. They race of level weights but RELIEF RALLY is officially more than half a stone the better horse so, taking on trust both have trained on, are ready to go, only RELIEF RALLY can win this.

FOLGARIA is rated just 2lb behind RELIEF RALLY and 6lb better than REGAL JUBILEE but we tend to do this in this country….we let foreign form fly under the radar so she might well be the one for the forecast….or would be in the middle of June, when we know everyone is fit and flying.

RON – RELIEF RALLY

SEAN – ELMALKA

Ayr 2.25pm

A Champion Hurdle, that’s also a Handicap….it’ll be more competitive than the one at Cheltenham but also a tad more difficult to work out, too.

The most dominant age grouping would be 5, 6, and 7….nine of the last 10 winner’s they’d have found you.

That only rules out three of the 15 runners so I’ll not bore you with a 12 runner “shortlist” and I’ll look at how the weights have worked, marry them up to the 12 left and see what we have then.

To be honest, they are all over the shop. We have seen winners in the last nine years carrying 9st 11lb, and everything in between 10st 4lb – 11st 6lb popping up.

So I’m going to suggest we apply the market SP banding here and with eight of the last 10 winners sitting front five on the tissue I’ll pluck that five out, then look to shoehorn them into age/weight stats.

  • L’EAU DU SUD
  • FAVOUR AND FORTUNE
  • BIALYSTOK
  • RUBAUD
  • AFADIL
  • FIRST STREET
  • FLORIDA DREAM
  • WESTPORT COVE

I have four sharing fifth spot @ 12/1….all aged 5, 6, or 7….two trained by Willie Mullins, who is here trying to win the British trainers title with less than 30 winners here this season…..he currently has 19 winners and that tells you all you need to know about the state of our NH racing.

I digress….so I cannot apply age or weight trends to those market positions, and I was going to suggest we utilise the returned SP’s of our last 10 winners but my cut off point would be 12/1….and they are all 12/1 or shorter.

Quite simply, I cannot get it to where I could name a horse, using the criteria I apply.

I cannot recall finding myself in this position with a handicap before….eight qualifiers and nowhere else to go.

The two best supported horses are the Mullins trained BIALYSTOK 16/1 > 13/2 since the market opened, with the Alan King trained FAVOUR AND FORTUNE 10/1 > 5/1….but they have saddled a combined 10 runners for this and only had one each hitting the frame.

All I can say is, check the OMMS tomorrow because right now I couldn’t possibly bet here.

RON – NO SELECTION

SEAN – L’EAU DU SUD

Newbury 2.40pm

The Greenham, a Group 3 that once saw Post Racing members in the parade ring as owners when HIDDON COIN (now known as HEARTILY WINS after being sold), gave them a great day out….even if he did finish last to the horse that next season ran a three length third to KINGMAN in the Jacques Le Marois at Deauville, having been beaten a short head in it, in 2013, by MOONLIGHT CLOUD.

Great days they were and as a group of people, we really have enjoyed some amazing times as owners. I’d love to get back to that level again.

So, tomorrow we have 11 three year olds, all carrying 9st 2lb, and I can only apply previous market positions to my selection process.

The winner of the last 10 renewals had nine of them sitting front four on the tissue and if that stays the same then our winner is one of:

  • ZOUM ZOUM
  • ARMY ETHOS
  • BALLYMOUNT BOY
  • MISTER SKETCH

Looking at the returned SP’s of those winners tells me that only three have landed odds bigger than 3/1, and we’ve also had five winning favourites.

If ZOUM ZOUM has a) trained on and b), Beckett has him spot on, then he’ll win this race.

Right now Beckett is running a 63%RTF and four of his eight runners in the last fortnight have won, or come second.

I’ll trust him to have this one right.

RON – ZOUM ZOUM

SEAN – ARMY ETHOS – E.W.

Ayr 3.35pm

The Scottish Grand National….and Mullins trains three of the front four on the tissue. Four of the last six winners have been trading front two on the tissue, the last two winners returning favourite.

Age groupings first and we will work only with horses aged seven, eight, or nine, which rules out the Mullins trained six year old favourite, MACDERMOTT.

Only seven of that age group has tried to win this in the last decade, four placing…not a winner amongst them.

I’m again going to refrain for popping a list of 20 up and reading them out for you because that only drops six of this field from the next calculation…weight ranges.

We have had three winners carrying 10st 1lb or less in the last 10 years but five of the last seven carried 10st 12lb or more, and only one winner has carried more than 11st 3lb, and because I want to offer up a name here (still won’t be betting, mind!), let’s do that 10st 12lb to 11st 3lb weight range, with only horses aged 7, 8, or 9 coming forward:

  • ELVIS MAIL
  • BEAUPORT

Only two of the last 10 winners returned an SP bigger than 25/1 and ELVIS MAIL, who opened 12/1, is now 50/1 so I can only think I say 20/80 BEAUPORT, who is at least 4-12 on the ground as currently forecast and around 16/1 as I type.

Like I say, I’ll not be betting here, my own efforts now solely invested in the flat racing.

RON – BEAUPORT – 20/80

SEAN – BROKEN HALO – E.W.

OMMS

Three I consider to be amongst the best of the OMMS this week:

  1. JAYARBE – 14/1 > 9/1 – WON 11/1
  2. ZAIN NIGHTS – 12/1 > 8/1 > 13/2 – WON 9/2
  3. TAYALA – 14/1 > 8/1 – WON 17/2

Something for the weekend

RON – 10P TREBLE MY THREE SELECTIONS AT NEWBURY – ARREST, RELIEF RALLY, ZOUM ZOUM

SEAN – WINCANTON (SUNDAY) – MIRABAD

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