Mullins, switching tracks, Kentucky Derby & all weather Classic winners?

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Mullins, switching tracks, Kentucky Derby & all weather Classic winners?
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  1. BHA to permit raceday surface switch

For me proof positive that racing is not about punters. Suppose you had spent the 24 to 48 hours previous assessing those races….as you and I do….created work based on soft/heavy ground and sending it out to those kind enough to subscribe for it, for it to then be swept into the bin but, those bets placed by our members (and ourselves), left hanging, with no redress for the punter.

I’m assuming all bets struck when the racing was taking place on turf stand? The bookmakers will not declare them non-runners? Or has that little gem not even been debated?

  • Kentucky Derby – why no stewards enquiry?

I have not heard anyone, other than the jockey on the rider of the horse affected, say nothing was out of order….the overwhelming opinion is, the stewards over there got it badly wrong….they didn’t even call an inquiry?

For those that didn’t see it, two short heads decided 1st, 2nd and 3rd placings. One of the craziest things I have ever seen though was the rider of the runner up, appeared to get hold of the reigns of the horse he beat into third…by a short head….and nobody with the power to do so, said anything, or did anything.

He should have been demoted to third without a doubt….bit like getting a red card in football, if you even touch a player during an argument. You are gone…end of.

Who knows if that actually cost the Japanese runner the race?

They never asked for an inquiry because in Japan, they never do. To polite for their own good, if you ask me!

What was your take on it?

  • Does Willie Mullins winning the trainers championship here simply highlight further the state of British racing?

Now, before anyone says, “there he goes, bashing Mullins”….nothing of the sort.

My problem is with British racing and I’m on record as saying I honestly believe the powers that be are out to get rid of NH racing in this country.

How can a trainer…from anywhere in the world…not just Ireland….be crowned champion having saddled 27 winners?

All that has been proven is something I have been saying for years now….we have so few top class horses here that Mullins could have won the Championship saddling 25 winners. If all he has to do is send his Grade 1 horses over to win our Grade 1 races….job done.

Ian Renton the head honcho at Cheltenham recently said that our trainers need 40-50 horses rated 150+ to become competitive again. But because of our NH situation, no owner buying those horses will send one of those to a British trainer.

So, well done Willie, on having by far the best stable of horses on the planet and being brilliant enough to train them to win the races they do, but look at the situation objectively and you must come away wondering how long this code has left in Britain.

  • Both Guineas winners had only ever won previously on all weather tracks – the shape of things to come?

First time ever that has happened. I did recall a Barry Hills trained winner had taken the 1000Gns having raced just once on Southwell sands (2009, GHAYAATH), but looking at the results we’ve seen at Chester this week, horses winning the trials all started their careers on sand, and it very much appears to be a trend becoming established. Not only the all weather angle but, also these horses not having raced as juveniles.

Makes the ante-post markets completely unplayable because no matter what a juvenile does now, who is going bet the 2000Gns, Derby, 1000Gns, Oaks before we’ve seen the racing at Southwell in the January!

RACES

  1. LINGFIELD 2-25

Seven fillies going to post and what I like about these races is when it comes to Profiling….or Scribblings….it’s a shortened process by virtue of the fact they are all 3-y-o’s, carrying the same weight and so I can go straight to market and see how well found our last 10 winners have been.

SHERBET LEMON won this @ 28/1 in 2021 but three of the last four winners returned SP’s of 7/4f, evens favourite and last year ETERNAL HOPE bolted in @ 9/4.

Eight of the last nine winners were sitting front four on the tissue and that means one of:

  • DANIELLE
  • TREASURE
  • RUBIES ARE RED
  • YOU GOT ME

….wins the race.

Six of the last 10 winners arrived having won last time out and of that quartet just DANIELLE and TREASURE make the cut.

Four of the last five winners had already been racing this season and so of that pair it has to be DANIELLE.

Trained by the Gosden’s and that’s no bad thing as John Gosden win it in 2019 and 2020

RON – DANIELLE

SEAN – TREASURE – E.W.

  • LINGFIELD 3-00

Nine colts coming here for this.

As with the Oaks Trial we ignore age/weights and cut straight to the market.

Eight of the last 10 winners were in the front three on the tissue and in the last decade only one winner has returned bigger than 7/1.

The front three right now are:

  • DEFIANCE
  • ILLINOIS
  • THE EUPHRATES

Two trained by Aiden O’Brien who invariably sends a good one for this. In 2019 he won it with ANTHONY VAN DYKE who then went on to win the Derby

Ryan Moore has opted to ride ILLINOIS, which will be music to the ears of Post Racing members.

Aiden’s record in the last 10 years of this race reads, 10 runners, three winners, one placing.

DEFIANCE is trained by Roger Varian and in the last 24 hours has been backed into joint favourite 3/1 > 5/2 but he has 5lb to find with ILLINOIS, who I feel will be better on the surface he’ll get tomorrow than he was when beaten at odds-on, on seasonal debut, on ground that was barely raceable.

RON – ILLINOIS

SEAN – IMPERIAL SOVEREIGN – 18/1 – E.W.

  • LINGFIELD 3-35

This Group 3 is nothing like as cut and dried if “ANCIENT” history repeats itself tomorrow. Four of the last nine winners have returned SP’s of 16/1, 16/1, 10/1 and 11/1.

The older horses have dominated across the last decade, eight of those last 10 winners aged either four, or five. Plus, whilst we did have funky results between 2014 and 2016 inclusive, recent trends point to a four of five year old trading front three on the tissue, and trading a single figure price.

The only qualifier is REMARQUEE who makes seasonal debut having undergone a wind-op and if official ratings mean diddly squat, she should win tomorrow.

Officially 10lb clear of the second favourite, a three year old, and with no three year old winning this since 2016 I’m confident….ish….that REMARQUEE wins.

RON – REMARQUEE

SEAN – REMARQUEE

  • ASCOT 2-40

I thought I would throw in mission impossible….the Victoria Cup at Ascot. I will produce Ratings for this tomorrow, but I’ll see if I can Profile the winner here.

A simple enough task, unravelling a 22 runner handicap, eh!

Age groupings first and I want nothing on my shortlist other than horses aged four, or five….they have taken the last nine running’s between them. I’ll not reel off the names….hundreds of them….so weight ranges, then market, and I’ll scoop out the horses most likely to succeed.

Eight of the last 10 winners carried between 8st 7lb and 9st 8lb and I still have a shortlist here of nine horses….they are:

  • RAMAZAN
  • STREETS OF GOLD
  • MOSTABSHIR
  • THE WIZARD OF EYE
  • MERLIN THE WIZARD
  • ARABIAN STORM
  • MUSTAJAAB
  • LONDONER
  • PEARLE D’OR

Market positions next and before I go there I can tell you that in the last decade we’ve seen winners returned 25/1, 12/1, 10/1, 20/1, 11/1, 16/1, 11/1 so like I said, a simple task!

Thing is, despite those SP’s, seven of the last nine winners were front six on the tissue but, I will rule out the favourite as only one has won this in the period of time I’ve worked with, just one other finishing first three:

  • THE WIZARD OF EYE
  • MERLIN THE WIZARD
  • PEARLE D’OR

Three for a dutch. MOSTABSHIR trades favourite right now but tomorrow it might not….the perils of Profiling 24 hours ahead of an event.

Nine of the last 10 winners raced from stall 13 or higher and of that trio only PERLE D’OR gets a thumbs up, racing from 14.

I’ll put that up as a 20/80.

RON – PERLE D’OR – 20/80

SEAN – MOSTABSHIR – E.W.

Best of the OMMS

  • VOYAGE – 50/1 > 16/1 – WON 28/1
  • ROYAL DRESS – 25/1 > 16/1 – WON 33/1
  • RUBY’S PROFIT – 20/1 > 5/1 – WON 10/1

Something for the Weekend

RON – Four trebles the four selections I have come up with.

SEAN – LINGFIELD 1-50  – PEKING OPERA – 33/1 (E.W.)

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