- Mick Appleby – top trainer at Glorious Goodwood, what were the odds?
I imagine they will have been under “others on application”!!
You’ll find more in the full transcription on iTunes Podcasts or our YouTube channel.
- Saffie Osborne – give her the rides and she will give us all the winners
I sent you a message last weekend saying, “Saffie Osbourne, three winners for three different trainers!….Podcast!!”
Yesterday, that Racing League nonsense I will not even watch….again, three winners, for three different trainers.
Her last 47 rides have produced 12 winners….26% strike rate. No fewer than 20 of those 47 rides have finished in the first three….this season, 424 rides, 67 winners, with 171 finishing first three and she has a +19.41 level point stake all rides.
A diamond, who has been well educated in race riding by her dad, Jamie, who was one of the best I ever saw riding two mile novice chasers.
Sir Michael Stoute is using her a lot too and right now I’d suggest she’s every bit as good as Hollie Doyle, who has ridden seven winners from her last 48 rides (15% strike rate) and four of her seven winners went off favourite, including that 1-14 shot last night!
- The Shergar Cup – not for the punters (?) but some serious talent on show
I’ll be honest, not even looked at it. I read a story this morning about a dead bloke that’s riding in the race, Jose-Luis Borrego….well, his heart stopped beating for seven minutes after a fall at La Zarzuela in Madrid! Thankfully the on course doctor didn’t give up on him and he’s going to fulfil his dream of riding at Ascot tomorrow….best of luck to him!
Two things stop me betting here, first….teams….I don’t do “teams” in racing….and so many jockeys I know nothing about, or have time to find out about….so I’ll let it happen without me being involved in any way, shape, or form.
I mean, who is Bauyrzhan Murzabayev? And then you also have reserves lined up….nah, not for me I’m afraid!
Saturday Racing
3.00pm Haydock
A Group 3 with just the seven runners heading to post and we have a short priced favourite in ANMAAT, who has not been seen for 439 days but, his last race saw him winning the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan.
He is the winner of six of his last eight races, and in the other pair he finished runner up.
He is one of those horses that give all owners a bit of hope….from winning a six runner Class3 Handicap at Bath, to the d’Ispahan at Longchamp in less than two seasons.
He won this race in 2022
He’s a six year old and last season AL AASY became the first winner in the last decade older than five to win this race….he too was a 6-y-o
I see no age group bias here, the last four winners being aged 3, 4, 5, 6….prior to that, 3, 4, 5 and with weight ranges not applicable here, I’m looking to see how the market performed….three of the last five winners returned as favourite.
Six of the last nine winners were front three on the tissue, five of those front two.
I’m happy going front two, not least because they are trained by Owen Burrows, and Haggas, who have trained three of the last five winners.
So, one of ANMAAT or AL MUBHIR for me….dutch to profit.
The solo play for Podcast purposes only has to be ANMAAT, who has not been out of the first three home in12 races under rules, winning seven of them. He is racing off level weights with AL MUBHIR but is, officially, 6lb the better horse.
The one negative is, he appears to be brittle, just five races since September 2021. Burrows seems to know when to race him though and I’ll trust his judgment here.
RON – ANMAAT
SEAN – LORD NORTH – E.W.
3.05pm Newmarket (handicap)
I had been looking forward to working with a double figure field here but just nine head to post and by crikey it’s a poor race….the five at the top of the weights have not even placed in their last 14 races combined, this season.
It’s another weak race for trends/stats, too. Winners in the last nine years aged 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 but if pinned to a wall with a gun to my head, I’d suggest we run with three and four year olds, but that accounts for seven of the nine runners.
Weight ranges definitely point me in the direction of horses carrying 9st 2lb – 9st 7lb….that would have seen us betting the last five winners, and six of the last nine.
Market position? In the last decade just two winners have returned SP’s bigger than 13/2 and the tissue I’m looking at suggests our winner is one of:
- BOBBY BENNU
- ALZAHIR
Right ages, right market position, correct weights….but my way in here is that the last four years have seen this race won by 3-y-o’s trading favourite and BOBBY BENNU fits a Profiling as well as any in here….better than most.
RON – BOBBY BENNU
SEAN – BOBBY BENNU
3.25pm The Curragh
The Brits have enjoyed success here in the last 10 years, two of the last four winners had gone over to take this prize, and in 2015 Tim Easterby sent MATTMU over to scoop the pool.
The winners of five of the last nine renewals of this race were ridden by UK based riders.
Just as an aside, the winners in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 all started with the letter G…how funky will it be if GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS comes out the Profile selection here!
UK based trainers have the front three on the tissue….fourth best is….GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS
Seven of the last 10 winners were drawn five, or lower….I’m thinking that’s important, as is returned SP’s….we do get the odd shocker but six of the last nine winners were 8/1 or shorter, with six going off 5/1, or shorter.
Everything does point to a UK winner here. They are all 5/1, or shorter, all drawn five, or lower,
- ELECTRIC STORM
- KIND OF BLUE
- SHARTASH
I’m liking SHARTASH here. Recently purchased by Wathnan Racing, he was a winner of course and distance when trained by Johnny Murtagh. He ran a blinder in France recently and before that was only beaten five lengths and change in the Group 1 Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.
He is the best of the three on official Ratings, 10lb clear of the one trading favourite, ELECTRIC STORM, and only has to give that horse 3lb tomorrow.
KIND OF BLUE came up just short in Group 3 last time out having ran a monster of a race in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot the time before. He comes out the best horse on official figures by 2lb but both his wins to date have come in Class 5 events, whilst SHARTASH won a Group2 here in 2022.
RON – SHARTASH – 20/80
SEAN – ELECTRIC STORM
3.40pm Newmarket
We had a 66/1 winner of this in 2020 but like any race, it can throw up the occasional anomaly.
Richard Hannon and Mark Johnston farmed this between 2014 and 2019, five of those six winners they had, and Charlie Johnston won it on the joint licence in 2022, but neither yard is represented tomorrow.
Take that 66/1 shot out of the equation, only one other winner this last 10 years has returned bigger than 7/1 and only two qualify tomorrow:
- LAKE VICTORIA
- MOUNTAIN BREEZE
It is 8/1 bar that pair at the time of writing, the market headed by the Aidan O’Brien trained LAKE VICTORIA, with the Godolphin runner trained by Charlie Appleby.
O’Brien has not sent anything for this in the last 10 years but Appleby has…eight in total, with just three placing, not a winner as of yet.
For that reason….but with not a lot of confidence in a once raced filly who did have the form of her win at the Curragh given a good boost when the runner up, RED LETTER, bolted in by over four lengths a couple of weeks ago.
RON – LAKE VICTORIA
SEAN – LAKE VICTORIA
4.35pm The Curragh
A near £200k first prize and only six racing for it….if I was running the gaff I’d halve that prize money and throw the other 50% at the lower class races, giving smaller owner/trainers a chance to win a decent pot. That’s probably gone down like a lead balloon at Coolmore!
They have the odds on favourite running for them, WHISTLEJACKET, who was expected to win at Royal Ascot but my Profiling selection, SHAREHOLDER, put a spanner in those works.
He was sent back to these shores when upped in trip at Newmarket for the July Stakes, a Group 2 for juveniles, and he bolted in.
The market….and that’s all I can trust here for Profiling purposes….says one of WHISTLEJACKET or BABOUCHE wins tomorrow….it is currently 9/1 bar the two….but I have to go with the favourite I’m afraid.
I have no idea how good BABOUCHE is as she arrives 2-2, having gone off favourite on both occasions but has yet to race outside of Group 3. I imagine Aiden O’Brien has her number because the horse she beat half a length last time in the Anglesey Stakes, was a stable companion of the favourite tomorrow, CAMILLE PISSARRO, who is officially rated just 97….WHISTLEJACKET is officially rated 111, a full stone better than CAMILLE PISSARRO, so BABOUCHE needs to improve a bundle to beat the colt, who only has to give the filly 3lb.
RON – WHISTLEJACKET
SEAN – WHISTLEJACKET
OMMS
ZENZIC – 20/1 > 10/1 – WON 10/1 (advised as being solid)
MERRIJIG – 11/1 > 5/1 – WON 5/1
COCONUT BAY – 9/1 > 6/1 – WON 5/1
Something for the weekend
RON – E.W. DOUBLE – BOBBY BENNU & SHARTASH
SEAN – LAKE VICTORIA
