Sean Trivass met with the Sports minister….what did he say? Oh, and seven winners for Saturday!

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Sean Trivass met with the Sports minister....what did he say? Oh, and seven winners for Saturday!
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In his capacity as Chairman of the HBF, Sean Trivass met with Sports Minister Stuart Andrew yesterday to discuss the debacle that is the Gambling Commission’s seemingly great delight in ruining horse racing and peoples enjoyment of having a bit of fun with a bet on the sport.

Sean discusses what came out of that, and where he goes next.

Pyledriver heads the discussions before we then start to dissect seven races for you, that will also be used for our very own FREE TO PLAY racing competition over on the Post Racing website. You will need to be registered as a FREE member on that site to play, and be logged in.

Please find below my side of the conversation regarding those races and hopefully you get enough clues from it to make sensible predictions!

1.35pm Kempton

A seven runner race and with the winner sitting front two on the tissue in seven of the last eight years, and with five of the last six winners aged four, or five, this hasn’t taken long to sort out at all.

The winner is one of:

  • BAY BRIDGE
  • ISRAR

I can look at weight ranges next and I find that in the last decade, only two horses have carried more than 9st 9lb to victory so that suggests ISRAR has a right old job on tying to give BAY BRIDGE 5lb, whilst trying to lump 9st 12lb into the winners enclosure. Add into the equation that BAY BRIDGE is also, officially, 6lb the better horse and we see that the second favourite has to improve by close to a stone to win on Saturday.

But then I look at the trainer of ISRAR’s record in this race….John Gosden….won four of the last five running’s so, fair to say he knows what it takes.

Also, no winner of this, in the last 10 years, has arrived not having finished in the first four, on their latest run….BAY BRIDGE finished fifth.

If trends blow up in our faces it’s possibly Gosden’s other runner, FORTINO, that could spring a surprise….around 14/1 as I speak.

He has his first run for the yard on Saturday, having run up a hat-trick of wins in Chile. He arrives rated just 2lb behind ISRAR but gets 6lb.

I do not like this race one bit. We have if’s buts and maybes about the front four on the tissue….and I have not mentioned CANDLEFORD yet, who is a previous CD winner, trained by Haggas, who has sent just three for this in the last decade, won with one (HAMISH), placed with another.

I have to put up one of the two mentioned at the top because they “fit”….but no confidence I have this right at all….BAY BRIDGE for me.

RON – BAY BRIDGE

SEAN – SHANDOZ – E.W.

1.50pm Haydock

REGAL REALITY did us a Podcast favour a couple of outings ago and comes out of the Lucky 2 stall….four of the last five winners were tucked up in that one.

He’s also older than we want now as horses aged three, four or five win this generally….eight of the last 10 winners were, and the last four.

  • CHINDIT
  • LIGHT INFANTRY
  • POINT LYNAS
  • ZOOLOGY

Weight ranges count for nothing here so onto the market we go and if you sit outside the front four on the tissue, you might as well go home now. Eight of the last nine winners were “fancied”, as the fact that seven of the last nine winners traded 11/2, or shorter:

  • LIGHT INFANTRY

The only runner that makes the cut based on current tissue price. He’s 5/2 right now, it’s then 6/1 bar and all trends point to him winning this race on Saturday.

RON – LIGHT INFANTRY

SEAN – LIGHT INFANTRY

2.10pm Kempton

A mile handicap, run on sand. Lovely.

The last 10 running’s have gone to horses aged four, or five and that rules out the favourite, a Haggas trained 3-y-o….which is a shame because the last three favourites have won this race!

My first shortlist though consists of horses aged four, and five:

  • IMPERIAL SANDS
  • HELM ROCK
  • RHYTHM N ROCK
  • FANTASTIC FOX
  • BALTIMORE BOY
  • TWO TEMPTING
  • GOLDEN SANDS
  • BOTAS

Weight ranges next as usual and the last winner to carry less than 9st was the 12/1 shot GEORGIAN BAY, in 2015 so I only want onside those carrying 9st, or more….:

  • IMPERIAL SANDS
  • HELM ROCK

Very swiftly down to a pair and if I apply the upper weight limit, that being no more than 9st 7lb, we lose IMPERIAL SANDS and take forward just HELM ROCK.

I’m not sure he has been done any favours at all getting that three draw to race from as six of the last eight winners were drawn 16, 14, 14, 14, 10, 12, with the other two boxed in seven, and eight.

Thankfully I don’t have to consider another all weather race for this Podcast….I’ll pop up HELM ROCK for Podcast purposes only.

RON – HELM ROCK – 20/80

SEAN – BRAINS – E.W.

2.35pm Ascot

First thing I did here was look for those seven furlong specialists….only POPMASTER has failed to win over this trip previously…..0-6 at it.

Ok, age groupings first. Horses aged four and five are “it”….they have won eight of the last 10 renewals of this race:

  • STAR OF ORION
  • SPANGLED MAC
  • POPMASTER
  • HICKORY
  • ADBUCTION
  • LOVE DE VEGA
  • MOBASHR

POPMASTER is in there but not for much longer, I suspect.

Weight ranges come out at 8st 7lb and 9st 6lb….that would have found us seven of the last 10 winners:

  • HICKORY
  • ADBUCTION
  • LOVE DE VEGA
  • MOBASHR

Down to a very nice four pretty quickly and now we’ll let the market sort it out. Eight of the last 10 winners were front five on the tissue and that also includes the last five so….:

  • HICKORY
  • LOVE DE VEGA

I’d dutch, for sure but if I have to pop one up as my selection, it has to be LOVE DE VEGA. No favourite has won this in the last 10 years….placed six times, but not won and so LOVE DE VEGA, who has won his last two races and has won and placed in seven of his 12 races on turf, can hopefully land me at least my “80” place play at around 8/1.

RON  – LOVE DE VEGA – 20/80

SEAN – HAVANA BLUE – E.W.

3.00pm Haydock

A 15 runner handicap in which they currently go 7/1 the field. I would definitely be looking for a bookmaker paying four places.

Between 2013 and 2018 I would have been saying you needed a four year old on your betting slip as they won four of these but in recent times, older horses have been taking it, probably as a result of the decent younger horses being bought to race overseas so we’ll go with horses aged five, or older:

  • ENEMY
  • TRITONIC
  • GET SHIRTY
  • EUCHEN GLEN
  • MR CURIOSITY
  • FORZA ORTA
  • HALIPHON

Weight ranges are a little blurry but I’m thinking we apply a band of 8st 10lb – 9st 7lb as that would have trapped seven of the last 10 winners, and the last five.

  • TRITONIC
  • GET SHIRTY
  • EUCHEN GLEN
  • MR CURIOSITY
  • FORZA ORTA

Gets us down to five.

Looking back at the returned SP’s of our last 10 winners is scary. Six of them have returned a double figure price but, on further inspection, I’d say we can rule out anything bigger than 14/1.

I would not want to be outside the front six on the tissue….but I do not want to be with the favourite, only one of those has pulled it off recently:

  • EUCHEN GLEN
  • FORZA ORTA

That gets me down to two, the first named being the winner of this in 2020.

I’ll go with FORZA ORTA for two reasons….EUCHAN GLEN is now a 10 year old, and he has not managed to win a race now for two years. He’s a good, consistent performer who ran a cracker in the Ebor and he may well hit the frame here but I have to post up the younger horse, an improving five year old, a winner last time out…20/80.

RON – FORZA ORTA – 20/80

SEAN – TRITONIC – E.W.

3.10pm Ascot

I’m feeling a little snookered here as three runners still have no jockeys booked to ride so, will they be taking part? I have to assume they will right now but anyway, a three year old WILL win this.

What weight will they be carrying? Not sure about minimum weight but history is telling me, I do not want anything with more than 9st on it’s back as only two have won with 9st+….that gives me:

  • ALKASIB
  • PERFECT PLAY
  • OVERACTIVE
  • TRUE LEGEND
  • GALLANT LION
  • DANCING IN PARIS

Market position of previous winners suggests outside front five means you are lugging a ball and chain so:

  • ALKASIB
  • GALLANT LION

One of that pair then, if the runes are right!

That’s a dutch @ 5/1 & 11/2 but for a solo play I’m going with ALKASIB.

Trained by Andrew Balding, who has sent seven for this previously, won with one, placed with a pair and this horse got a bit bogged down on soft ground at Goodwood last time out, having previously won on good to firm, and good at Chester.

I’ll go 20/80 that Probert can get the same tune out of him that he did at Windsor and get back in to the winners enclosure.

RON – ALKASIB – 20/80

SEAN – VICTORY DANCE – E.W.

3.35pm Haydock

The Betfair Sprint Cup and SHAQUILLE is already odds on to win, it’s 11/1 bar and on official figures he only has to turn up to win.

I’ve been looking to see if I can get him beaten via stats/trends and the answer is no. Three year olds have a good record in this, winning five of the last 10. The winner is usually front three on the tissue and seven of the last 10 winners returned SP’s of 7/1 or shorter.

Stats wise, he’s bombproofed and the only way he gets beaten, is if he’s had enough for this season but you only ever know that after an event.

The second favourite races off level weights….and is officially 9lb inferior, the third favourite is giving the favourite 2lb, and is officially 10lb inferior.

RON – SHAQUILLE

SEAN – SACRED – E.W.

OMMS

  1. BRIAN THE SNAIL – 25/1 > 12/1 > 9/1 – WON 11/2
  2. FORTAMOUR – 15/2 > 11/2  – WON 9/2
  3. SEND IN THE CLOUDS – 11/2 > 4/1 – WON 10/3

Something for the weekend

RON – E.W. TREBLE – ALKASIB, FORZA ORTA, LIGHT INFANTRY

SEAN – VICTORY DANCE – E.W.

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