Who impressed you most last Sunday? Sean and Ron have a netter about the more impressive winner on a day full of them!
They also chat aboput the 2024 fixture list….who fancies going racing at 10-30am in the morning?
For our hard of hearing members we have Ron’s side of the winner finding, eight races covered. disected and sel;ections made….for those brave enough to be betting flat racing in October!
Only seven previous running’s of this race so very little for me to work with.
Three year olds have won six of them and the winner has been front three on the tissue in five of the seven….so with the front three on the tissue all 3-y-o’s, I think we find our winner there.
Surprisingly Appleby has never sent one for this, but he has booked Ryan Moore to ride the favourite WHISPERING WORDS and, with three of the last five favourites obliging, and with Appleby having a level stake profit of 27.94 points in such races at Newmarket, he gets the gig.
RON – WHISPERING WORDS
SEAN – RED DANIELLE – E.W. – NR
Just nine going to post but I can tell you straight away that stats will struggle here….well, ish.
The last five winners have been aged 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 so age biases do not exist….and I do love a good age bias!
From a weight range perspective I do not want anything onside carrying less than 9st, or more than 9st 6lb. Eight of the last 10 winners were found in that net.
That narrows it down to four:
- EMARAATY ANA
Seven of the last 10 winners sat front three on the tissue and that means we lose CHIPSTEAD at this point, currently 16/1 and with just three of the last 10 winners returning SP’s bigger than 11/2, we run with:
- EMARAATY ANA
I cannot have KORKER at this level. He’s a handicapper….a good one, but a handicapper. He’s also difficult to win with and recently won his first race in 17 months, and only his second in two years.
He also runs of level weights with the favourite, EMARAATY ANA despite being officially rated 9lb inferior. NYMPHADORA is rated 7lb inferior to the Kevin Ryan trained gelding but gets just 2lb.
He trades favourite presumably based on official ratings and two things sway me towards him…. favourites have won three of the last four running’s of this and, Kevin Ryan has a level point stake profit of +32pts in such races run at Ascot.
He has to be my selection.
RON – EMARAATY ANA – WON 5/2
SEAN – EMARAATY ANA – WON 5/2
Only eight previous running’s of this so with age grouping of no matter at all as it’s 22 juveniles going to post, so all I can tell you is that before last years winner landed, all seven previous winners carried less than 9st.
As only two of the 22 carry over 9st I’m not going to prepare a shortlist of 20. Instead, I’ll look at how the market has shaped up and I see six of the eight winners were front three on the tissue so, let’s go there:
- ZOULU CHIEF
- WOODHAY WONDER
- MIDNITE RUNNER
For a 22 runner race, asking punters to take Evens about a horse is plain daft. That’s what the layers are asking you to do with regards ZOULU CHIEF.
It is actually 10/1 bar the first two named as WOODHAY WONDER is currently 4/1, MIDNITE RUNNER 10/1.
Five of the last six winners returned a single figure price and reverting back to the weight ranges, I have to side with WOODHAY WONDER, who arrives carrying less than 9st, the favourite carting 9st 1lb….I’d not bet a race like this to save my life but for Podcast purposes, WOODHAY WONDER.
RON – WOODHAY WONDER – WON 5/1
SEAN – ELDERFLOWER – E.W.
Another race that’s tricky to work with from an age angle….winners aged 3, 4, 6 and 7 have won this in the last seven years so I have to do as I did previously and look first at weight ranges. It’s the same again here, with my banding 9st – 9st 6lb dominant and that rules out the front two on the tissue, AL AASY and ISRAR.
Looking at market positions of our last 10 winners I have to be working with the front three and so, purely by a process of elimination, my selection has to be AL QAREEM.
He came up trumps for me at Chester recently when beating the favourite BLUESTOCKING and since this market opened has shortened from 8/1 > 9/2.
Here only two of the last 10 winners have returned SP’s bigger than 11/2 so I’ll post up Karl Burke’s runner again.
RON – AL QAREEM – WON 10/3
SEAN – AL AASY
We have 10 going to post but a red hot favourite in DRAGON LEADER, currently 2/5 to win his fourth race in five starts. I couldn’t bet at such a price. He should win pulling a cart as the second favourite is giving him 3lb, yet arrives officially rated 8lb inferior. The third favourite, ACTION POINT, is rated 1lb superior….but has to give the favourite 13lb….a no brainer if official ratings mean anything and 15 easy points in the competition.
RON – DRAGON LEADER – WON 4/7
SEAN – QUEUES LIKELY – E.W.
It really is typical of end of season racing that trying to work with stats is like doing a Kwai Chang Cian across the Kung Fu rice paper walk….to burn those icons into your arms lifting that boiling pot….Google it!
Here, the last four winners have been aged 3, 4, 5, 6….so all I can do is exactly as previously with those Ascot races already discussed.
If I tell you the front six on the tissue as I type are 3, 4, 5, 6, 6, 7 you see what a predicament we are in.
It’s exactly the same weight ranges again because nine of the last 10 winners fell into the 9st – 9st 6lb brackets. That rules out the current tissue favourite, COMMANCHE FALLS because he’s on 9st 7lb….pedantic?….definitely.
It also rules out the current fourth favourite, GARRUS, he too carries 9st 7lb and so, with nine of the last 10 winners sitting front three on the tissue, and again by default, it has to be ANNAF or JUAN LE PINS winning this for Mick Appleby.
They break from stalls six and eight, and they have provided three of the last five winners.
I’m happy dutching but for win purposes I’m going for ANNAF. My reason for doing so is that Rossa Ryan is on board. He has ridden this horse six times and produced form figures reading 1, 1, 1, 3, 4, 1 and that last win saw the horse breaking it’s maiden on turf.
He’s also rated 3lb superior to his stable companion and they race off level weights.
RON – ANNAF – WON 5/2
SEAN – DARK TROOPER – E.W.
Just six going to post here and until 2019 you’d have said, “we just need to go with the favourite”, because they were hoovering this up….now though, the last four winners were sitting 7, 5, 3, and 6th on the tissue so, has “end of seasonitis” caught up?
Only one of the last four favourites has even placed. Three of the last four winners returned SP’s of 16/1, 17/2 and 16/1 again last season.
The current favourite, INSPIRAL, is trained by John and Thady Gosden….but they do not win this race. They have sent just two for it in recent years and they only managed to place with both of them.
I’m more interested in MQSE DE SEVIGNE and MEDITATE, who are trained by Andre Fabre and Aiden O’Brien respectively. Both have good records in this, Fabre has sent six in the last 10 years, won one, placed with another. O’Brien has sent 10, won with two, placed with two.
A dutch that pair but for competition and Podcast purposes I’ll throw the French trained horse in here. She doesn’t do anything easily, her two wins so far being by a short neck and a nose so her jockey is going to need a Rolex in his head.
Two of her defeats came by a head and a nose, and Fabre replaced that jockey with Alexis Pochin….and he’s clearly got a clock in his head.
An interesting race and I’ll go French.
RON – MQSE DE SEVIGNE – 2ND 10/3
SEAN – INSPIRAL – WON 10/11
There has been tons of money for POPMASTER since this market opened….14/1 > 11/2f
David O’Meara throws the kitchen sink at this, saddling five of the 18 runners, including last years winner ESCOBAR, WHO WON @ 20/1. He opened 33/1 and is now 16/1, wears first time cheekpieces but, he has not won since taking this race last season and has had a very busy time of it in 2023, this being his 12th run of the campaign. Mind you, he took this last season on his 11th outing so who knows what he’ll do.
Again, not a clue here when looking at age groups really, the last six winners aged 4, 3, 6, 5, 3, 8….weight ranges it is then.
Definitely 9st+ so my first shortlist is:
- BLUE FOR YOU
- BLESS HIM
- ROPEY GUEST
Three of O’Meara’s in there, including old ESCOBAR.
Market position next and six of the last four winners went off well fancied, sitting front four on the tissue so from that list we’ll take:
That’s got shut of O’Meara’s platoon.
You can dutch them to make a profit and I would!
Those looking for one to work with in the competition could do worse than work with the very well supported POPMASTER, who has been in ripping form this season, winning and placing on all sorts of ground and retaining his form.
FRESH has seen support as well. He opened 12/1, hit 6/1 then eased back to 13/2 as the POPMASTER money arrived.
Four of the last seven favourites have obliged and I say we get our fifth in nine tomorrow.
RON – POPMASTER – 2ND 10/1
SEAN – MAYWAKE – E.W.
THE BEST OF THE OMMS
- GREEN POWER – 11/1 > 6/1 > 5/1 – WON 14/1
- ARKENSTAAR – 8/1 > 7/2 – WON 4/1
- TELE RED – 6/1 > 3/1 – WON 11/8F
Something for the weekend
RON – AL QAREEM – WON 10/3
SEAN – RED DANIELLE – E.W. – NR