Dettori?…and what should be done about these gambles being landed?

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The World of Sport
The World of Sport
Dettori?...and what should be done about these gambles being landed?
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Probably the most expected unexpected thing to happen this week (or this year!), was Frankie Dettori deciding, after a season of hullabaloo, that he would not, after all, retire.

In another world, the number of big priced gambles being landed, by horses of seemingly little or no ability, doesn’t seem to be attracting the eyes of the Stewards?

You’ll hear some fun and games kicking off as I finalise my selection for the York 3-35pm race….we moist definitely lose our equilibrium….if we ever had any! I said I’d leave it all in….and I have!

For our hard of hearing members/readers you have the text of my side of the conversation below, with Sean’s selections for those eight races.

Best of luck!

1.15pm York

A Listed race for juveniles, 12 set to go to post. Should be simple enough to solve as a 2-y-o wins it, and an 80% chance it carries more than 9st, too.

Seven of the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue but in the last six years we have had some very “end of season” results….2 x 25/1 and a 10/1 shot in 2019, ABERAMA GOLD, who proved a revelation after joining David O’Meara this season.

In the last two years though, sense seems to be prevailing as the last two winners returned SP’s of 7/2 and 5/2f….both trained by Haggas, who is not represented tomorrow.

O’Meara saddles the current third favourite here, ESQUIRE, which opened 10/1 and now trades 15/2.

I have spotted a trend that rules that one out though….well, two stats actually. First, none of the last seven winners arrived having won but, they did arrive having raced more than once.

ESQUIRE has to blow both stats out of the water so I’ll suggest we work with:

  • PUROSANGUE
  • STARLORE

A dutch might make players happy but for Podcast purposes, I’ll suggest PUROSANGUE purely and simply because he’s drawn low. Six of the last nine winners were drawn six or lower and he has stall two. STARLORE breaks from nine.

RON – PUROSANGUE

SEAN – ESQUIRE – E.W.

1.25pm Newmarket

I like these small field Group races….quick to work out, easy to solve….ish!

Just seven heading to post here all juveniles, all carrying 9st 3lb so all I need to do is sort out the markets, marry up the stats and bingo!

Eight of the last 10 winners were sitting front three on the tissue so one of the following wins it:

  • ANCIENT WISDOM
  • CHIEF LITTLE ROCK
  • ARABIC LEGEND

It is currently 15/2 bar that trio and as only one of the last eight winners returned an SP bigger than 5/1, I am feeling pretty comfortable with those named.

Charlie Appleby trains the current tissue favourite, ANCIENT WISDOM, and he has trained the last three winners of this race, and four of the last six. Godolphin has owned five of the last six winners….they have kinda made this their own!

Appleby has actually only sent eight for this and got two placed, in addition to the four winners.

Aiden O’Brien has saddled 14 runners in this race and only managed six placing, whilst Andrew Balding, who trains ARABIC LEGEND, has only had two representing him in the last decade, managing a solitary placed effort.

All the stats/trends point to ANCIENT WISDOM but the Appleby yard has had a stinker of a season by comparison to previous years and I’m not a bit confident in putting him up….but I have to.

RON – ANCIENT WISDOM

SEAN – PER CONTRA – E.W.

2.00pm Newmarket

The Dewhurst and usually a great pointer to the mile Classic the following year. CHALDEAN won this last season, then took this seasons 2000Gns, the season before NATIVE TRAIL failed by less than a length to beat his stable companion, COREOBUS in the 2000Gns, and the winner of this race in 2020, ST MARKS BASILLICA, missed our Guineas but went to France, took their version, then won the French Derby, The Eclipse before signing off with a defeat of TARNAWA in the Irish Champion Stakes.

The favourite usually wins this. It has done in seven of the last 10 years, and four of the last five. In CITY OF TROY we may well have something special.

He is already just 5/2 to win the Newmarket 2000Gns next year and if, as expected, he bolts in here, he’ll be odds on.

Aiden O’Brien is already coming out with the usual stuff….fast, stays, not a bother on him, cooks his own dinner, can do up his own laces already….because that’s what Aiden does….he has a stallion to sell….but he was mighty awesome last time out and he’s 8/15 tomorrow to go into the close season with a hat-trick of wins under his belt.

With regards to the 2000Gns….wait for next years Podcast closer to the time….I’ve found the last three of the last four winners, KAMEKO, COREOBUS and CHALDEAN this year….

RON – CITY OF TROY

SEAN – CITY OF TROY

2.25pm York

Mission Impossible. If either of us nails this, we get sent a bottle of something nice.

Only one of the last 10 winners went off shorter than 10/1.

We want to be working with horses aged four, five or six:

  • APOLLO ONE
  • MONTASSIB
  • GWEEDORE
  • ALBASHEER
  • KING’S LYNN
  • ABERAMA GOLD
  • SIGNIFICANTLY
  • ALEEZDANCER
  • WOBWOBWOB
  • IT JUST TAKES TIME
  • ANOTHER INVESTMENT

Horses of the age group covered have won the last 10 of these

Weight ranges next and I would bin anything carrying less than 9st, or more than 9st 7lb as the last 10 winners fit into the 9st – 9st 7lb range perfectly. Form that first shortlist we take:

  • KING’S LYNN
  • ABERAMA GOLD
  • SIGNIFICANTLY
  • ALEEZDANCER

I’m now down to four runners and that’s a dutch.

 Going back to market position I want horses trading 10/1 or bigger….but not bigger than 16/1. Only one winner has taken this priced 20/1 or bigger in the last decade:

  • ALEEZDANCER

Only one of the four fits perfectly, ALEEZDANCER.

Those with good memories will remember he was a strong OMM on April the 2nd this year, 14/1 > 9/2 favourite, and winning easily at Doncaster.

That gives you some idea how long these horses have been on the go and why I do not bet on flat racing now.

RON – ALEEZDANCER – 20/80

SEAN – ALEEZDANCER – E.W.

2.40pm Newmarket

A race I have never been a fan of this race….or any race run over this kind of distance on the flat. It’s just become a jump trainers benefit because flat trainers only have speed horses now. One look at the last 10 years results shows you what’s going to happen tomorrow.

Eight of the last 10 winners have gone to yard that belong to NH trainers, four Irish trained winners in the last five years, so the first thing I’m going to do is pluck from this new Grand National maximum field size race, those Irish trained NH runners:

  • JACKFINBAR
  • THE VERY MAN
  • PIED PIPER
  • JESSE EVANS
  • LOT OF JOY
  • THE SHUNTER
  • ZENON
  • SHEISHYBRID
  • MR ESCOBAR

Anything younger than four, or older than seven, gets the chop now. That age banding accounts for the last 10 winners:

  • PIED PIPER
  • JESSE EVANS
  • LOT OF JOY
  • SHEISHYBRID
  • MR ESCOBAR

Now I’ll remove anything trading bigger than 10/1, as we’ve seen seven of the last nine winners trading 10/1, or shorter:

  • PIED PIPER

Just PIED PIPER left standing and he has previous course winning form from his time with John Gosden. He has won or placed in seven of his 11 previous starts on the flat, has clearly be trained for this, Elliott has booked Ryan Moore to ride and I cannot see a negative.

RON – PIED PIPER

SEAN – WORDSWORTH – E.W.

3.15pm Newmarket

A five runner farce. The last two running’s have gone to Charlie Appleby trained horses that then failed to train on as three year olds and that’s typical of the winners of this race completely. The last four winners have gone on to win three races from a combined 34 races at aged three and beyond….if they get “beyond”.

What wins this then?

A two year old, carrying more than 9st, and most likely from the Appleby yard….he saddles the favourite ARABIAN CROWN….he also had ANCIENT WISDOM entered.

Only two previous winners have returned bigger than 7/2 and so it’s one of:

  • ARABIAN CROWN
  • GASPAR DE LEMOS

Aiden O’Brien trains the second named and both trainers arrive having almost the exact same record in the last 10 years, two winners, one placed from eight runners for O’Brien, and six runners for Appleby.

O’Brien last won it in 2018 with NORWAY, who managed to win just once as a 3-y-o before being sold to Chris Waller in Australia. He raced there 11 times, did nothing.

I’ll put up the Appleby runner because he’s trading favourite and they’ve won five of the last 10 running’s but again, who punts an Appleby runner with confidence this season?

RON – ARABIAN CROWN

SEAN – GASPER DE LEMOS

3.35pm York

We have seen seven three year olds take this in the last 10 years and they put a run of four together between 2018 and 2021. The race was won last year by a five year old @ 11/1 that was a five runner race containing just one relatively unfancied 3-y-o.

Tomorrow’s race is a proper contest, with 13 set to go to post and I’m thinking we remove anything older than five, as only CHANCERY, a seven year old, scuppering the age grouping I have set.

  • KILLYBEGS WARRIOR
  • LA YAKEL
  • LORD PROTECTOR
  • SCAMPI
  • BELIEVE IN STARS
  • BATEMANS BOY
  • OBELIX
  • AALTO
  • TITIAN
  • CAROLUS MAGNUS

Next I’ll look at weight ranges and I’m thinking 8st 13lb – 9st 6lb is best.

  • SCAMPI
  • BELIEVE IN STARS
  • BATEMANS BOY
  • OBELIX

Got it down to a quartet again pretty swiftly and so now I’ll let the market produce me a definitive selection.

Only four winners bigger than 13/2 in the last decade so if any of the four qualify, they get the gig….

  • BELIEVE IN STARS

We have pour winner and I’m not at all bothered he’s favourite as the winners in 2020 and 2021 went off the jolly so he does me just fine.

RON – BELIEVE IN STARS

SEAN – BELIEVE IN STARS

3.50pm Newmarket

A double figure field to work with….hurrah!

An all aged Group 3 that has seen three year olds winning the last two, three of the last fopur, and five of the last nine. Four year olds have won three of the last seven so a three or four year old wins tomorrow:

  • KNIGHT
  • MAXIMILLIAN CAESAR
  • PADISHAKH
  • REAL GAIN
  • SILVER SWORD

All 3-y-o’s as we have no 4-y-o’s taking part.

Weight ranges next but because we are working with the 3-y-o’s it’s a bit null really and we’d just say nothing carrying more than 9st 4lb…all qualify.

Market positions….definitely front four on the tissue as you would have nailed six of the last seven winners using that stat:

  • KNIGHT
  • REAL GAIN

Dutch for a profit but if we apply Official Ratings here it has to be KNIGHT winning it.

He races off level weights with REAL GAIN and is rated 9lb his superior.

The older horses trading second and fourth favourite, HIGHLAND AVENUE and SPIRIT DANCER, have to give KNIGHT weight (4lb and 7lb respectively), but KNIGHT is rated 3lb superior to HIGHLAND AVENUE, and just a single pound inferior to SPIRIT DANCER.

If they all run to their best, KNIGHT wins….but will they? That’s why it’s called gambling!

RON – KNIGHT

SEAN – KNIGHT

OMMS

  1. IT’S A LOVE THING – 100/1 > 25/1 – WON 12/1
  2. MISS MARETTE – 40/1 > 16/1 – WON 11/2
  3. MEECHLANDS MAGIC – 25/1 > 11/1 – WON 11/1

Something for the weekend

  • RON – PIED PIPER
  • SEAN – PER CONTRA – E.W.
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