It’s Cheltenham, a look back at “Chumpions” Day, and a chaser/hurdler to follow

0
The World of Sport
It's Cheltenham, a look back at "Chumpions" Day, and a chaser/hurdler to follow
Loading
/

I am like a kid in a sweetshop at Christmas now, as the NH season is about to get into full swing.

Did you get suckered into betting on horses last weekend, as Ascot put on “Chumpions” Day?

Why anyone would want to bet on flat racing this close to Christmas is beyond me….tired horses racing on winter ground….so we concentrate our efforts on the magic going on at Prestbury park tomorrow, plus, Sean and I name a chaser and hurdler to follow through the 2023/2024 season.

Below you also have the text of my side of the conversation and our selections for the four races discussed.

HORSES TO FOLLOW

RON

  • CHASER – MISTER POLICEMAN
  • HURDLER – ETHICAL DIAMOND

SEAN

  • CHASER – GOLDEN SON
  • HURDLER – TULLYHILL

Saturday Racing

1.15pm Cheltenham

Only eight previous running’s of this race and I’ll have Ratings/OMMS for this race tomorrow morning.

From a Profiling angle it’s tough to produce anything off the back of just eight races but I’ve seen something we can work with and that is, we do not work with horses younger than six, or older than eight. All eight previous winners in that banding.

  • NOTLONGTILLMAY
  • HADDEX DES OBEAUX
  • RED ROOKIE
  • PRINCE ESCALUS
  • TRIPLE TRADE
  • THE DASHER CONWAY
  • GUY

Just half the field make the cut and next we go to weight ranges. I’m seeing no discernible advantage across those eight running’s so all I can do next is look at the markets to see if the eight races give us any idea as to what will happen tomorrow.

Seven of those eight winners sat front three on the tissue….the one that wasn’t, was sitting fourth best so, I’m going to use that set to cull that first list and see what we have left:

  • HADDEX DES OBEAUX
  • RED ROOKIE

Two cut the mustard and they sit favourite, and third favourite as I type.

For Podcast purposes I’m going to post up HADDEX DES OBEAUX. He arrives making seasonal debut and four of the last five winners did likewise. Also, he was well fancied to beat JONBON in the Kingmaker at Warwick in February but failed to get there. Not seen since he hammered GALOP DE CHASSE and THIRD TIME LUCKI by 19 lengths and a head, if Moore has him firing for this (you have to make an assumption he has), then he’ll take some beating.

RON – HADDEX DES OBEAUX

SEAN – NOTLONGTILLMAY – E.W.

1.50pm Cheltenham

Just eight going to post here and the four fronting the current tissue read like a line of text from a Rosetta Stone language course lesson!

All four years old, all bar one carrying 11st so I’ll just go straight to the markets for my guide and if the winner is not sat front three on the tissue at the off, following Profiling will blow up in our faces here!

The last 10 winners were 1, 2 or 3 in the market, only one of those 10 returned a bigger SP than 5/1….that was 11/2….and so take a bow BLUEKING D’OROUX and SPIRIT D’ANOU…..5/4, 2/1….10/1 bar the pair.

If official ratings mean diddly, then the favourite wins as he’s officially 11lb better that SPIRIT D’ANOU, yet they race off level weights tomorrow.

I could go looking for ghosts, knit some yogurt, hug a tree and use a magnifying glass to try and find a reason why the second favourite should win but I’ve got a life to live!

The ubiquitous Nicholls wind-op certainly did the trick with BLUEKING D’OROUX and he made a fool of us form boffins when sluicing up at 50/1 first run after that procedure. Punters didn’t seem to learn anything, either. Next outing they let him go off at 18/1 and he ran a blinder at Aintree to come second….you’ll not get funky prices about him again!

RON – BLUEKING D’OROUX

SEAN – BLUEKING D’OROUX

2.25pm Cheltenham

A little cracker of a race. Very much looking forward to Rating this in the morning and then looking at the markets before sorting out Scribblings.

First shortlist comprises horses aged 7-9 as the last 10 winners were in that age banding, so the first shortlist looks like this:

  • KINONDO KWETU
  • AMIRITE
  • TWIG
  • MISTER FOGPATCHES
  • BRIEF TIMES
  • UNDERSUPERVISION
  • QUICK DRAW
  • LORD ACCORD
  • WHACKER CLAN
  • WAYFINDER

We only get rid of four, but it’s a start.

Next, those weight ranges again. Tricky. In the last five years we’ve had our winners carrying 10st 3lb, 10st 4lb, 11st 12lb, 9st 12lb, and last season 11st 3lb.

What I have noticed though is that when we have a long priced winner, they tend to be carrying less than 11st, when we have a shorter priced winner, they carry over 11st….so what I’ll do here is marry up the markets early, with weight, and say we’ll pop a weight carrier up, as seven of the last 10 winners returned a single figure price.

A tad convoluted but it’s a tad trappy this….so from that first shortlist I want horses carrying 11st or more, trading a single figure price:

  • AMIRITE
  • TWIG
  • UNDERSUPERVISION
  • QUICK DRAW
  • LORD ACCORD

Five. One of them wins this but, which one?

Two ways of culling this list now….first, I do not want the favourite here for win purposes. Three of the last seven favourites pulled up here, and the last winning favourite was good old BALTHAZAR KING back in 2013.

However, the winner has been front four on the tissue in seven of the last 10 years, the last three winners being 2nd favourite, 2nd favourite, and fourth favourite last year.

So, I want anything in that last list trading 2nd, 3rd, or fourth favourite:

  • AMIRITE
  • UNDERSUPERVISION
  • QUICK DRAW

Dutch to make a profit but because we want a Profile selection I’m going to remove horses making seasonal debut as only FRODON, in the last five years, has managed that.

FRODON was a freaky result as he arrived with an official rating of 164, when generally your looking for something 131-134….that covers the other four winners in the last five years.

Only one goes forward….

RON – QUICK DRAW – 20//80

SEAN – QUICK DRAW – E.W.

3.00pm Cheltenham

A 20 runner Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier handicap and I’ll start by telling you that whatever wins this, does not win the final in March. I think I am correct in saying only two qualifier winners went on to win the final.

Another thing I’ll tell you is that I’ll be telling subscribed members of itscheltenham.com and those having been kind enough to register for THE SPECIALS SPECIAL, the race to keep a very close eye on for that winner in March….it will be in the RELEVANT RACES section soon.

Age groupings? Forget them. Horses aged 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12 have won this in the last 10 years.

Weight ranges? Forget them. We’ve seen horses winning this carrying anything between 9st 13lb to 11st 12lb in the last 10 running’s. Maybe…just maybe….horses carrying less than 11st might be favoured but it’s funny looking across those bandings as the last nine winners had three carrying less, followed by three carrying more, then three more carrying less.

Market position? Well, seven of the last 10 winners were front six on the tissue and right now they are:

  • BUGS MORAN
  • HUGOS NEW HORSE
  • WE’LLHAVEWAN
  • RINGDUFFERIN
  • DUBROVNIK HARRY
  • HYLAND

Three Irish trained runners, with a Paul Nicholls runner, HUGOS NEW HORSE, sitting second favourite right now.

Trying to produce a Profile horse for this is a bit like playing pinata but one trend I’ve seen is, you ideally want to be arriving having unplaced last time out and with absolutely no confidence in this at all, I’m going for Harry Fry’s DUBROVNIK HARRY.

Four arrive having won last time out….four of the last 10 winners did….but six arrived having been out with the washing and so I’ll go with that one….currently around 12/1 and a 20/80 for a fun punt.

RON – DUBROVNIK HARRY – 20/80

SEAN – HUGOS NEW HORSE

THE BEST OF THE OMMS THIS WEEK!

All from Thursday but there have been many this week!

  • VICTORIA MILANO – 50/1 > 25/1 – WON 28/1
  • HELLO JUDGE – 14/1 > 6/1 – WON 9/2
  • MOVEIT LIKE MINNIE – 10/1 > 6/1 – WON 7/2JF

Something for the weekend

RON – HADEX DES OBEAUX

SEAN – HUGOS NEW HORSE – E.W.

- PLAY EUROMILLIONS! -
Previous articleDettori?…and what should be done about these gambles being landed?
Next articleBreeders Cup, Hen Knight returns and, have you signed the petition?