For our hard of hearing members you have my side of the conversation regarding the six races discussed, with our selections.
If you listen via iTunes Podcasts you can read a full transcription of the whole kit and caboodle!
Ascot 1.20pm
I have to start by saying I’m as much in love with flat racing at this time of the year, as I am taking the dogs for a walk in the rain that we had here a couple of days ago. That was shocking!
Tired horses, running on bad ground, leads to head scratching results but we’ll give Ascot a shot.
Who knows what the ground will ride like? I have not got a clue. Yesterday morning they advised that potentially they were getting 20mm of rain, then yesterday afternoon you told me 9mm max….it’s soft, then heavy soft in places.
Staying races….hate them….totally pointless. Fancy offering up a prize of over £250,000 for races like this. Madness. All that happens is Aidan O’Brien gets the fastest of his slow horses to clean them up and here his KYPRIOS is odds on to add to his six wins already this season and the only horse he has to beat is the horse that beat him a neck in this race last season, TRAWLERMAN….who has yet to race on the ground as is currently described.
Last season KYPRIOS was returning from injury and only ran twice following an absence of nearly a year. This season no such issues and bingo, he’s cleaning up.
He has won 14 of his 18 races to date, been runner-up in two others and tomorrow I’d expect win number 15….unless a long season catches up with him? Who knows?
RON – KYPRIOS
SEAN – KYPRIOS
Ascot 1.55pm
A 20 runner Group 1 sprint so the weight ranges will be null. We had a 3-y-o winner in 2021, 2018 and 2015 but generally you want a seasoned sprinter running for you….four of the last five winners have been aged 5 (1), or six (3)
ART POWER (runs again this time), won this last year @ 40/1 and in the last six years we’ve also seen winners @ 33/1 and 28/1 and, we have had just three winning favourites in the last decade, one of those a joint favourite. Five of the last seven winners returned a double figure price….see what I mean about end of season results?
Let’s run with the five and six year olds, ruling out the favourite (he’s a 7-y-o anyway), running from a single figure draw…six of the last eight winners won from nine of lower….and I have a shortlist of:
- ANNAF
- AUDIENCE
- MONTASSIB
That’s my dutch but for my Podcast selection it has to be MONTASSIB, who is currently 3-3 on the going as currently described, AUDIENCE is 0-2 on it, ANNAF 1-1
My fly in the ointment is the fact MONTASSIB is 0-4 at Ascot but they were all races run over seven furlongs of further. At six furlongs, he’s 5-7.
RON – MONTASSIB
SEAN – KINROSS – E.W.
Ascot 2.35pm
In recent days this market has been all about QUANTANAMERA, trained in Germany by Andreas Suborics, 16/1 > 7/1 and what I know about this horse could be written on a pin head.
She won the Prix de Deauville in August, a Group 2, on very soft ground….which probably equates to a swamp here….so most likely those playing are banking on very slow ground. That was his first win in two years….and all three career wins have come on very slow ground.
Thing is, she’s a 4-y-o and eight of the last 10 winners were 3-y-o’s. She has also never won a Group 1.
Two of the last three winners….22/1 & 16/1….with three winning favourites in the last five years. That’s honestly what we are up against in October.
It really is easier solving a Rubik cube, than trying to find the winners of a horse race.
I’m looking for a 3-y-o with winning form on soft/heavy ground and found that the front two on the tissue, KALPANA and CONTENT, both 3-y-o’s, arrive with winning form this season on nothing slower than good.
I then found the O’Brien runner, GRATEFUL….last two wins over staying trips and never yet won over shorter than 12 furlongs.
So here we go….I’m taking a complete flyer and suggesting the 25/1 shot WAR CHIMES. Last October….27th….Menusier sent this one to France to win a heavy ground Listed race over nine furlongs and in June she ran third in the Oaks on ground probably too quick.
Would I have a bet? £1 e.w. for a laugh!
RON – WAR CHIMES – 20/80
SEAN – CONTENT – E.W.
Ascot 3.15pm
I’ll be going for another Menusier runner here, TAMFANA.
Am I fingers crossed regarding slow ground…absolutely. She ran fourth in the 1000Gns and arguably would have won with a clear run.
They upped her in trip, which was a proper blooper as she’s an out and out miler….as she has proved since coming back to the eight furlongs, two wins on the spin and last time won the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes.
You need to be a 3-y-o to win this….seven of the last 10 winners…and five of the last six…and the last three…were all aged three.
You need a seat in the front three on the tissue…she’s currently second favourite and well supported, too….6/1 > 7/2 since this market opened.
Her form figures in October read 1, 1, 1….and it’s a no brainer from a semi-profiling perspective.
RON – TAMFANA
SEAN – TAMFANA
Limerick 3.20pm
I’ve no market for this yet and it’s still early days with regards the NH season, both sides of the Irish Sea but we’ll now start to see the big guns firing….Paul Nicholls had his first winner this month yesterday….as those Sighters they have been sending out enable them to get their strings up to speed.
I’ve looked back at the last 10 years and three things stand out….obviously the name Mullins, who has trained five of the last nine winners, and the fact you need to be aged six….the last three winners were, and four of the last five winners….so my selection has to be NINTH TITAN, a six year old, trained by Mullins.
You would not want to be going off bigger than 7/2 and if NINTH TITAN is 7/2 or shorter, that’s my pick.
RON – NINTH TITAN
SEAN – WORLD OF FORTUNES – E.W.
Ascot 3.55pm
You mentioned to me yesterday that ECONOMICS was drifting and I automatically assumed it must be ground related. All his winning form at Group race level has come on genuine good ground and that has to be the cause.
It’s another race that highlights the way October affects results. We had four winning favourites 2016 – 2019 inclusive, before those we had winners at 10/1 & 7/1, and the three years 2020-2022 inclusive 9/1, 12/1, 10/1….then lst year, a winning favourite.
I’d not want to be working with anything bigger than 12/1 so right now a three year old wins it as we have three trading 6/4, 13/8, 7/1…it’s then 14/1 bar.
We have the French raider CALANDAGAN, ECONOMIC for Newmarket, and LOS ANGELES for Ireland. The winner has gone to one of those three places in the last five years.
I’m liking horses racing from a single figure draw because nine of the last 10 winners did so, so that rules out LOS ANGELES.
It’s the ground persuading me I go with CALANDAGAN. He is prove on slow ground, I think the market might be right in deserting ECONOMICS because of it, so it’s the Frenchman for me.
RON – CALANDAGAN
SEAN – CALANDAGAN
OMMS
- PERFECT SIGHT – 33/1 > 16/1 – WON 50/1
- COTSWOLD COTTAGE – 33/1 > 8/1 > 7/1 – WON 14/1
- SIXCOR – 20/1 > 7/1 – WON 6/1
Something for the weekend
RON – TAMFANA
SEAN – CONTENT & TAMFANA – E.W. DOUBLE
