Please find below the text of my side of our conversation regarding the six races selected for discussion.
1.30pm Doncaster
It’s now that flat racing has me pulling a face similar to that I’d pull if someone dropped their guts in a lift I was sharing.
In three of the last four years this race has been run on heavy ground and last years winner is 0-4 since, the winner in 2022 is 0-1, the winner of it 2021 is 1-15 and the Aiden O’Brien trained winner in 2020, CALL ME TEDDY, is 0-30
We can take it as read whatever wins is a pudding, that has taken advantage of an end of season race run on bad ground.
Eight juveniles, all bar one carrying 9st 3lb, four exposed, and the front four on the tissue totally unexposed.
I can only trust to the markets in such races but all that tells me is the winner will be front four on the tissue….one of those unexposed ones it is then.
The current tissue favourite, BOUNTY, is trained by Aiden O’Brien and I’m sweet on that one (see what I did there?), because he has only sent three for this in the last 10 years, had that winner mentioned earlier, and another placed.
The has been market interest in FAST TRACK HARRY – 12/1 > 13/2 but my feeling is the layers had priced it wrong and adjusted it. His sole win came on ground like that he’ll face tomorrow, unlike BOUNTY, whose win @ 2/9 came on slightly quicker ground.
These races have more question marks about them than the Riddler’s suit but for Podcast purposes only, I’m going with DIEGO VENTURA, who is 1-1 ground, 2-2 trip and ran second over seven furlongs in a Group 3 last time. Now back to his trip, on his ground, and lowered in grade, he’s my selection.
RON – DIEGO VENTURA
SEAN – BOUNTY
2.00pm Newbury
It is all about the juveniles tomorrow and here’s another Listed race for fillies. Age/weights count for diddly squat, so let’s see what the markets tell us.
I only have eight previous running’s of the race to work with and generally I want 10 minimum but six of those eight have gone to the front three on the tissue, three of the last seven winners going off favourite and it’s the current tissue favourite, SUPERMODEL, I’m going with.
Trained by William Haggas, who has sent five for this in the last 10 years, winning with two, placing with two, she is one of just two in here with winning form on the going as currently described. The other one, ISABELLA CASTILE, is already 0-1 trip, 0-2 track, whilst SUPERMODEL’s win came over this trip.
The front three on the tissue have had just four runs between them and who knows how much improvement any or all of them have in them.
I’ll put up SUPERMODEL….but I have not got a clue really.
RON – SUPERMODEL
SEAN – TOO MUCH HEAVEN – E.W.
2.40pm Doncaster
I read a very upbeat interview with James Owen regarding WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE recently and he duly opened 5/2 favourite for this Group 1 race….but he’s as weak as a kitten on the tissue, out to 7/2, whilst the Aidan O’Brien trained DELACROIX is 10/1 > 4/1.
We both got him wrong last time but that’s juveniles for you.
Again age/weight ranges do not apply and using market position you see the last three running’s have gone to the favourite, two trained by O’Brien, and you also see three of the previous seven also went to the favourite, two of them trained by O’Brien.
He has saddled 24 for this race in the last decade, won with those four, placed with seven others.
Five of the last seven running’s have gone to Irish trained horses and this time I’m with DELACROIX, who I can certainly see starting favourite tomorrow given how the market is moving.
RON – DELACROIX
SEAN – DETAIN – E.W.
3.10pm Newbury
Yep, more juveniles. The Group 3 Horris Hill, which is another that is won by a horse that is just a 2-y-o and doesn’t train on. Last years winner, KNIGHT, is 0-8 since taking this race, and was last seen finishing a 21 length sixth of six in July.
No winning favourites in the last 10 years, three of the last seven winners returning SP’s of 16/1, 33/1, 10/1
Five of the last eight winners were sitting second or third favourite and I’ll use that….so my winner is one of BENEVENTO or MAKE YOU SMILE
Three of the last four winners arrived having had just one run, which they won….and if I use that to pick one of that pair, then it’s course and distance winner MAKE YOU SMILE….who has drifted from 9/2 > 13/2 since this market opened….but then, everything has eased so I’ll read nowt into that unless it gets silly.
RON – MAKE YOU SMILE – 20/80
SEAN – YAROOGH
3.20pm Kelso (handicap hurdle)
The go to age range here is pretty wide, with horse aged between five and eight taking this twice or more in the last 10 years but, in more recent years horses aged six or seven have dominated this, with the last four and five of the last seven so my first shortlist comprises of:
- BALLYFORT
- OLD GREGORIAN
- BASHFUL
- JUMPING JUPITER
- NINETOFIVE
- EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN
- JET PATROL
- THEIRSHEGOES
- FAIRMAC
- HEART ABOVE
Weight ranges next and I’m looking for something carrying more than 11st, but less than 12st as the winner of the last eight running’s of this fell into that range and, of those above making the cut we have:
- OLD GREGORIAN
- BASHFUL
- JUMPING JUPITER
- NINETOFIVE
- EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN
Down to a respectable five and we now move on to the markets.
We have seen five winning favourites in the last seven years and in the last decade only two winners have sat outside the front three on the tissue so looking at the tissue you very kindly found for me, I’m looking at two for a selection:
- BASHFUL
- NINETOFIVE
The last five runners had all raced this season and, all five had finished in the first four, with last years winner arriving having won last time out.
Neither qualifies but, BASHFUL has been kept busy on the flat this summer and I’m fingers crossed he’s fitter than most as a result.
He’s my selection but to a 20/80
RON – BASHFUL – 20/80
SEAN – FOSTER’S FORTUNE – E.W.
3.45pm Newbury
Finally….the Group 3 St Simon Stakes and the last nine of these have been won by horses aged 3 (3), 4 (4) and 5+ (3) so age groups are no use here.
It’s a Group race so weight ranges do not apply for me and it’s just market position again that and with seven of the last nine winners front three on the tissue I’ll suggest our winner is one of:
- AL ASSY
- DANIELLE
- SALT BAY
It’s 2018 since a 3-y-o won it, so I’d drop the Gosden trained DANIELLE, and with SALT BAY already 0-2 ground, 0-4 trip and 0-3 track, it has to be AL AASY winning this but, would you take 11/10 about a horse who has never raced on heavy ground, and who was beaten on soft last time out, with the two wins before that run coming on good to firm?
He’s the best horse in the race if he gets through the mud but not a chance I’d bet he will.
RON – AL AASY
SEAN – AL AASY
OMMS
- CURRENT MOOD – 16/1 > 4/1 – WON 6/1
- MUSICAL TOUCH – 12/1 > 7/1 > 6/1 – WON 5/2F
- TREBLE TEE – 10/1 > 7/2 – WON 10/3
Something for the weekend
RON – DELACROIX
SEAN – TOO MUCH HEAVEN – E.W
