This week we chat about the legend that was Alistair Down, that humungous Placepot payout at Huntingdon, bookmakers limits, and City Of Troy’s wasted trip to America.
We discuss four races for tomorrow, including the Badger, which signals the start of the core season for me.
Four our hard of hearing members/friends please find below my side of the conversation regarding those four races. You can also find full transcriptions available through iTunes and YouTube.
The sad passing of Alastair Down
He was a proper wordsmith. There are a handful of writers who can do what they manage to do with words, especially when it comes to writing about sport. The late Peter Thomas, who did football reporting for the Daily Express many years ago, was another
- City Of Troy – a bridge too far?
European horses, Irish and UK based specifically, do not win on dirt.
It’s a skill set ours don’t possess and I read somewhere a good while back, that a French horse pulled it off in the early 1990’s and I honestly do not know why they bother.
I saw a picture taken of CITY OF TROY during the race, and he was running with his eyes closed. It makes you wonder if they had tried him on the surface at home under race conditions.
It appears to be like asking Usain Bolt to win Olympic Gold in the 100m swimming freestyle.
- Huntingdon Placepot pays £32,992 -and you didn’t even need to find a winner
They didn’t need to found a winner but by crikey they needed a copy of the next days Newspaper before racing started to nail that. I can only think the holders of the 1.7 winning tickets have a De Lorean, or had Nostradamus rock up when they were using a Ouija board the night before.
It paid what it did because it had the whiff of the impossible about it.
Saturday Racing
Wincanton 2.23pm
Only five heading to post and these small field races don’t take much working out really.
All Novice chasers, all carrying 11st 4lb and I guess that if they all were to run to their hurdling mark then SOUL ICON is best but he’s trading 7/2 right now and we have had just one winner in the last 10 years return an SP bigger than 5/2.
That suggests one of HANDSTANDS or INSURRECTION is winning this. They are front two on the tissue and the winner has front two in the market in eight of the last 10 running’s.
INSURRECTION is trained by Paul Nicholls who won this last season with KNAPPERS HILL. He also won this in 2014, 2016 and 2017 so fair to say he targets it.
INSURRECTION was the joint “worst” of these over hurdles but on debut he was only just pipped by a horse that was rated 15lb superior over hurdles and ‘chasing will be his game.
The ground that day at Chepstow was officially good but after the race Nicholl was saying the horse would not have wanted it any softer than that? Go figure!
The last five winners also arrived for this having made seasonal debut and the current favourite, HANDSTANDS, has not been seen for 241 days so I’ll plump for INSURRECTION.
RON – INSURRECTION
SEAN – HANDSTANDS
Aintree 2.40pm
The Grand Sefton run over the National course, which, let’s be honest, is not what it was, and this is really just another handicap now.
Can I just say that whoever priced this market up and has AUTHORIZED ART @ 66/1 must have been smoking something seriously funky. Now 16/1….congratulations to those that got on early.
Previously with Willie Mullins he is having his second run for Gary Moore tomorrow and I expect a big run.
Nine year olds have a cracking good record here, winning five of the last 10 renewals and two of the last four so my first shortlist comprises:
- AUTHORIZED ART
- FRERO BANBOU
- PERCUSSION
The weight rules out AUTHORIZED ART for win purposes. Only two winners have managed to win carrying more than 11st 7lb so it’s one of:
- FRERO BANBOU
- PERCUSSION
I’m inclined towards FRERO BANBOU, who was trained for this race last season and ran a cracker to finish third. Venetia Williams has hers running well, and around 11/2 it’s a 20/80
There has been a lot of money for KING TURGEON in recent days….12/1 > 5/1f and racing second time following a wind-op.
I’m happy with my pick.
RON – FRERO BANBOU – 20/80
SEAN – OUTLAW PETER – E.W.
Wincanton 2.55pm
Down to three runners and I guarantee a false pace and a false result.
I’ll not bet on such a race but for those brave of heart I’ll just say RUBAUD.
Currently a very easy to bet favourite 4/6 > E he’s a CD winner, trained by Nicholls, who has his ready for today and has saddled the last two winners of this race…RUBAUD winning it last season, too.
I’d not want the diesel bill Henry De Bromhead’s owner will get for sending ASPIRE TOWER over, but I guess if he finishes last of the three that’ll be covered.
RON – RUBAUD
SEAN – ASPIRE TOWER
Wincanton 3.30pm
Four of the last 10 winners returned SP’s of 16/1, 11/1, 11/1 and 40/1, the last two arriving in the last four years so expect the unexpected.
In 2020 Profiling nailed the 110/1 CSF and suggested Kim Bailey’s EL PRESENTE would be a decent 20/80….won at 12/1, beating the other in my final two, POTTERMAN, 10/1, a short head.
I love this race.
We have 10 currently going to post and starting with age groupings I’d suggest we run with those aged seven, or eight. They have taken seven of the last nine running’s of this race, and three of the last four:
- FORWARD PLAN
- RISKINTHEGROUND
- THE CHANGING MAN
- MOFASA
That got rid of most of this field so weight ranges next and I’m thinking no more than 11st 7lb, no less than 10st 6lb. It’s not a specific banding because we’ve actually seen everything from 10st 2lb to 12st winning it, but my banding would have secured six of those 10 winners.
- FORWARD PLAN
- RISKINTHEGROUND
- THE CHANGING MAN
- MOFASA
The only qualifier from that quartet is FORWARD PLAN.
Currently priced around 9/1, he’s a decent 20/80 running for a stable currently running an 89% RTF%age figure.
Anthony Honeyball has had nine runners in the last 14 days and seen three winners and only one outside the first three home.
RON – FORWARD PLAN – 20/80
SEAN – THE BIG BREAKAWAY – E.W
OMMS
- PALAZZO BLU – 33/1 > 12/1 – WON 7/2
- PINE CLIFFS – 8/1 > 6/1 > 10/3 – WON 7/2
- ROCKINASTROM – 11/2 > 4/1 > 3/1 – WON 6/4
Something for the weekend
RON – FRERO BANBOU / FORWARD PLAN – E.W. DOUBLE
SEAN – SALAMANCA (Chelmsford 8-30, Saturday)
